EPAC: INVEST 91E

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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: INVEST 91E

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu May 16, 2019 1:10 am

EP, 91, 2019051500, , BEST, 0, 93N, 985W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
EP, 91, 2019051506, , BEST, 0, 93N, 987W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
EP, 91, 2019051512, , BEST, 0, 93N, 989W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
EP, 91, 2019051518, , BEST, 0, 93N, 991W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
EP, 91, 2019051600, , BEST, 0, 93N, 994W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002, SPAWNINVEST, ep722019 to ep912019,
EP, 91, 2019051606, , BEST, 0, 93N, 996W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Thu May 16, 2019 5:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu May 16, 2019 1:19 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed May 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual
development will be possible through the weekend and into
early next week while the disturbance moves little or drifts
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 am

Might be a slow development process.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu May 16, 2019 6:36 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next several days while it meanders.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 16, 2019 12:28 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of persistent but disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity is located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible in a
few days while it meanders or drifts slowly eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 16, 2019 2:48 pm

ECMWF turns very bullish with this invest.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby Astromanía » Thu May 16, 2019 5:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF turns very bullish with this invest.

https://i.imgur.com/X2MD7Zn.gif


landfall in Chiapas? that's not good, even if it do it as a tropical storm :(
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 16, 2019 7:29 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure is producing widespread but
disorganized cloudiness and showers a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico. Some slow development is
possible in a few days while the broad disturbance meanders or
drifts slowly eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 16, 2019 9:23 pm

This is an entirely different system than what the GFS and Euro are showing I believe.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 17, 2019 12:00 am

TheStormExpert wrote:This is an entirely different system than what the GFS and Euro are showing I believe.


It looks like its not but it appears it'll eventually get absorbed into that CAG that will form next week.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#11 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 17, 2019 7:41 am

I think that this is the feature that the models are developing next week. There isn't a clearly-defined disturbance yet, so the NHC has circled an area to watch on their outlook beyond 48 hrs. Typical early-season area to monitor. Meanwhile, GFS continues to jump back and forth as to whether something develops in the East Pac or western Caribbean late next week. Since it looks like I might finally get some time off on Memorial Day weekend after many weeks of travel, I would estimate development chances in the western Caribbean to be near 100%.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#12 Postby zeehag » Sat May 18, 2019 12:04 pm

strange this is not the initial system shown by nhc 2 days ago... that one is wandering its way out west, as should be the case at this time of year.. this gonna screw up chiapas thing is a different one.. and nhc keeps showing no formations within 5 days. passage shows some thing gonna mebbe start on the 25-26th.... farther west from this chiapas thing... now that geary of eebmike has passed, we have to hunt for the real deal here.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 18, 2019 12:22 pm

Up to 40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 200 miles southwest of the
Mexico-Guatemala border is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the
low has become better defined, and environmental conditions are
expected to somewhat conducive for slow development of this system
over the next several days while the disturbance meanders off the
coast of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 18, 2019 5:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#15 Postby TorSkk » Sun May 19, 2019 4:24 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers associated with a broad area of low pressure located about
200 miles south-southwest of the Mexico-Guatemala border have
become less organized during the evening. Environmental conditions
are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during
the next few days while the disturbance meanders off the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 19, 2019 6:27 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Guatemala have
become less organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system by the middle of
the week while the disturbance moves slowly westward to the south of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 19, 2019 6:31 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles
south of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. No development of this system is expected during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could favor some
slow development later in the week while the disturbance moves
slowly westward to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 19, 2019 8:52 pm

This one is no longer on NRL but if the models are right,92E should be up very soon.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2019 6:44 pm

Up to 30%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 20 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Guatemala continues to produce limited shower activity. Some
gradual development of this system is possible later this week while
the disturbance meanders over the far eastern North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2019 10:56 pm

00z ICON goes bonkers with this strongest run yet from this model.

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