ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Exact center position right now is about 2 miles west of the 5am track line. Negligible.

[BobHarlem]

NHC seems very confident with their forecast in their latest discussion.

It was pretty clear when the center formed on the east side, the only real question left is how much it will impact Bermuda and how strong.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Best Track up to 55 kts.

AL, 09, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 286N, 778W, 55, 997, TS

- This says he was at 28.6 N, 77.8 W at 8AM EDT.
- The 5 AM advisory had him at 28.3 N, 77.7 W at 5 AM.
- The 5 AM advisory had him progged at 29.0 N, 77.9 W as of 2 PM.

Based on this info, he looks to be right on track and I see no reason for the US to worry right now.

Last night it was 29.5 nit was suppose to turn. Its slowed down early.
Still have ti wait. Its not meeting forecast points in the north direction. Just because the forecast points change each advisoriy does not fix that it stalled south of the original point from 11pm last.

We are titering here. Any slower or farther south
. Could result in not out to sea. We dont know yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Exact center position right now is about 2 miles west of the 5am track line. Negligible.

Looks back farther. 5am it was already stalled. Compare to 11pm or 5pm yesterday.

[CyclonicFury]

I would put the chances of a US landfall from Humberto at less than 1%. This one should accelerate to the northeast. Bermuda should keep a close eye on it though.

[jconsor]

I would put the center at 28.75N, 78.0W at 11 AM EDT. Slight difference, probably not too significant. About 40 miles south of the 0z HWRF and COAMPS positions at 15z, but close to the ECMWF and UKMET positions.

- This says he was at 28.6 N, 77.8 W at 8AM EDT.
- The 5 AM advisory had him at 28.3 N, 77.7 W at 5 AM.
- The 5 AM advisory had him progged at 29.0 N, 77.9 W as of 2 PM.

Based on this info, he looks to be right on track and I see no reason for the US to worry right now.

- NHC 5AM position: 28.3 N, 77.7 W
- 8 AM position: 28.6 N, 77.8 W
- NHC 11 AM position: 28.9 N, 77.9 W
- NHC 5 AM prog for 2 PM: 29.0 N, 77.9 W

So, right on track and no need to worry right now and hopefully for good in the SE US.

[psyclone]

Bermuda club really needs to remain at attention for this one. Otherwise...not so much. Southeast coast surfers will be happy. Kudos to the NHC for quickly dumping the TS watch for the Florida east coast. Legacy headlines = future complacency.

[storm4u]

Woah 12z canadian

[JahJa]

Bermuda club really needs to remain at attention for this one. Otherwise...not so much. Southeast coast surfers will be happy. Kudos to the NHC for quickly dumping the TS watch for the Florida east coast. Legacy headlines = future complacency.

Thanks! We are definitely paying attention and starting preparations!

[hohnywx]

Woah 12z canadian

It would be nice to describe what it shows instead of just saying “woah”

[1900hurricane]

I don't have the benefit of using a log10 spiral at the moment, but just eyeballing BD IR seems to indicate that Humberto has just exceeded a 1.0 wrap when using a curved band. Combined with the nascent banding eye seen on visible imagery, It wouldn't surprise me to see recon find a system of about 65 kt/990 mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should be a hurricane very soon.

[LarryWx]

We’re now into the expected near stall period, which will probably continue into the evening. So, he’s pretty much doing as planned. By tonight, we should see some eastward component of motion. Only if we don’t see any by dawn tomorrow would I start getting a bit worried something’s off.

[Emmett_Brown]

We’re now into the expected near stall period, which will probably continue into the evening. So, he’s pretty much doing as planned. By tonight, we should see some eastward component of motion. Only if we don’t see any by dawn tomorrow would I start getting a bit worried something’s off.

I agree, and easy enough to verify, 11am official NHC forecast path, Humberto should reach 29.5N 77.7W by 0Z

[HurricaneAndre2008]

994.4 mb
(~ 29.37 inHg)

[wx98]

994.4 mb
(~ 29.37 inHg)

Missed the center and went back: 993.0 mb

[artist]

Appears to be at
Coordinates: 29.117N 78.133W

[plasticup]

Bermuda club really needs to remain at attention for this one.

Preparations are well underway; the grocery stores are almost out of beer.

[LarryWx]

Appears to be at
Coordinates: 29.117N 78.133W

This is about where the model consensus has him at 18Z though a tiny bit (10 miles?) west of the NHC. There shouldn't be any appreciable west component of motion from here...I'd say no further west than about 78.3 W. If it were to get to something like 78.5 W, then I'd start to wonder a little about the models. But I really don't see that happening.

[artist]

A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 18:01:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.11N 78.14W
B. Center Fix Location: 166 statute miles (268 km) to the ENE (66°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,376m (4,514ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 1kts (From the SE at 1mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 56kts (64.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 17:41:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 64° at 56kts (From the ENE at 64.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix at 17:38:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 49kts (56.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 18:20:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 219° at 59kts (From the SW at 67.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 18:22:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles