EPAC: RAYMOND - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Location: Hong Kong

EPAC: RAYMOND - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:32 am

93E INVEST 191113 0600 11.1N 112.0W EPAC 25 1008
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:58 am

Trying to scrape out one more system this year? There is some lukewarm model support.
3 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Astromanía
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#3 Postby Astromanía » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:58 pm

I thought EPAC was already dead, maybe this will surprise us...
2 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:04 am

This has caught my attention for sure, but I doubt it will be anything but a weak, short-lived system.

Still surprising though given that I kinda thought this season was over as well.
1 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 851
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#5 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:26 am

If you don't count the CPac, we're outpacing the EPac in the Atlantic for named storms so if this gets briefly named it'll tie us I guess... assuming the ATL doesn't pop out more.
1 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

zeehag
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 115
Age: 71
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 9:49 pm
Location: mazatlan,sinaloa, mexico, fixing patricia's mess.
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#6 Postby zeehag » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:20 am

those of us here are summer'd out--craving peace from mother ocean... and hoping this fizzles before we see anything real here. surfers are hoping for swells boaters are hoping for peace and good sailing. incoming tourists just want sun and surf..and shrimpies...heck i just want my screens to remain in place long enough to re install my mizzenmast and remove mainmast for repairs..
happy day of thanks to all and here's to hoping for a fizzle... :sun: :sun: :sun:
1 likes   
life is an adventure meant to be LIVED!!!

http://www.sksolitarybird.com

User avatar
Chris90
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 338
Age: 29
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:36 pm

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#7 Postby Chris90 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:59 am

This has some good convection and a decent circulation from what I can tell, I think it might be worthy of a classification. A little late season surprise from the EPAC after a season that was pretty dull compared to the EPAC standards the past few years. Reminds me of ATL's wrong way Lenny from '99 with its movement. Let's see if this can keep it together for a couple of days.
An interesting little feature to track as the season gets ready to officially close, before I turn my attention completely over to the Southern Hemisphere.
1 likes   
Midwesterner with dreams of fall.

User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm
Location: Hong Kong

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#8 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:18 pm

EP, 20, 2019111500, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1083W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTY, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 048, TRANSITIONED, epD32019 to ep202019,
1 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 618
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#9 Postby StruThiO » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:39 pm

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150232
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019

Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system
that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California
peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection
to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the
2019 eastern North Pacific season. The depression is producing two
areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center,
and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification
from SAB.

The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over
warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind
shear environment. In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced
increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should
end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend.
The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and
dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely
hostile upper-level environment. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.

The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A northwestward
to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should
occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and
remains in place. After that time, a faster north-northeastward
motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the
west of the Baja California peninsula. Once the system becomes
weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA
consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the
southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 13.0N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.7N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 23.2N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5330
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: EPAC: TWENTY - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:51 pm

We're about 3.6 units of ACE short of 100 right now. I don't think 20E gets us there, but it's possible that it could take us close if it modestly overperforms.
3 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

aspen
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 406
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:28 am

Best track intensity is upped to 40 kt. We now have Tropical Storm Raymond.
3 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117609
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:21 am

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the
past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however,
recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective
canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged
35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears
to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore
increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond.

The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its
structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed
that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight,
however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be
reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact
consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to
strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little
intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical
intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC
forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds
are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond
nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and
it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time.

Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or
north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
There has been little change in the track guidance since the last
forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center
reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an
adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track
forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west.

Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into
southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next
few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:23 pm

199
WTPZ45 KNHC 152036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred
miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624
UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better
defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has
been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT
slightly under-sampled the strongest winds.

The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will
likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity
guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today,
but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond
is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of
the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have
tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there
is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure
when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of
the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through
tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond
moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous
NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official
forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and
FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
1 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:23 pm

Image
1 likes   

Astromanía
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby Astromanía » Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:26 pm

Image
Mmm so this will treat Baja California Penninsula, I will chek the rainfall acumulation for this area in the upcoming days, that is always the biggest problem. This system could impact as a tropical depression or even as a tropical storm, so better watch this close. Maybe we could get some data from Revillagigedo islands before it aproaches Baja due to it's potential track
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:31 am

Image
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:32 am

161
WTPZ45 KNHC 160235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Raymond has changed little in organization over the past several
hours, with bursts of deep convection continuing mainly over the
eastern semicircle. A pair of recent microwave overpasses confirm
that westerly shear continues to impact the cyclone, disrupting the
inner-core from getting well established. The initial intensity is
kept at 45 kt for this advisory and is in agreement with the latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

The moderate shear over the cyclone is forecast to continue through
tonight while the storm remains in a moist environment and over warm
water. These conditions will likely help to continue these large
bursts of convection, and as a result some slight strengthening is
expected to occur. On Saturday, a strong mid- to upper- level trough
is forecast to dig southeastward to the west of Baja California.
This will bring a steady increase in southwesterly shear across
Raymond, with the shear values possibly approaching 50 kt by 48
hours. As a result, Raymond should begin to weaken by late Saturday.
One uncertainty in the intensity forecast is whether or not Raymond
will bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The official forecast calls for Raymond
to be a weakening 35 kt tropical storm as it approaches, but these
winds may be to the east of the peninsula. Subsequently, Raymond
is expected to become a remnant low due to the shear. Forecast
guidance is in good agreement on the above scenario, with some
variations in timing. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall
associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

Raymond is now moving north-northwest at 9 kt around a mid-level
ridge to the east of the cyclone. A turn to the north then perhaps
north-northeast is expected Saturday and Saturday night as the
system rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge and becomes
under the influence of the southwesterly winds associated with the
approaching trough. Once the system loses its deep convection in a
few days, it should turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. The
latest official forecast is near the previous one and the clustered
consensus track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:52 am

138
WTPZ45 KNHC 160845
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data show that the
center of Raymond has become exposed to the west of the main
convective mass. The ASCAT-B instrument revealed 35-40 kt winds
to the northeast of the center, but it likely missed the area of
strongest winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number.

The window of opportunity for Raymond to strengthen appears to be
closing as west-southwesterly shear is already increasing over the
cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt later
today, and Raymond should begin to weaken by tonight. The SHIPS
model indicates that the shear will become very belligerent
in 36 to 48 hours when the cyclone approaches a cut off low to the
west of the Baja peninsula. Raymond is forecast to weaken to a
depression within a couple of days when it nears the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and should degenerate into a remnant
low shortly thereafter. The cyclone is likely to dissipate within
3 days, however a 72-h forecast position is provided for
continuity.

Raymond jogged west-northwestward earlier this evening, but it is
expected to resume a north-northwestward heading very soon. A turn
to the north should occur later today, and a north to north-
northeastward motion is predicted tonight and Sunday as the cyclone
is steered between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest
and a ridge to the southeast. Once Raymond weakens, it is
expected to turn northwestward within the low-level steering flow.
The more westward initial position of Raymond has required a
westward adjustment of the track but the new official forecast is
again close to the center of the guidance envelope.

Regardless of the cyclone's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the system will likely spread northward
into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this
weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 33
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:00 am

Image
1 likes   

TallyTracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 121
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby TallyTracker » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:00 pm

I saw on WeatherUnderground that Raymond and another low are supposed to douse the Southwest next week.
0 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael '18, Nestor ‘19


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests