EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

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wxman57
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:15 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: it’s not a remnant low until there’s been no deep convection for ~12 hours. This narrative you push needs to die quite frankly. Given ASCAT never registered more than 25 knots, it’s also hard for me to imagine this being a TS.


I suggest you look back to Sunday when it reached its peak intensity. There were 30kt barbs and flagged 35kt barbs. It started weakening yesterday and was upgraded last evening. There hasn't been any convection around the center for 12 hrs. This low no longer qualifies as a TD. I think the NHC will be downgrading it shortly, though they may wait until the 21Z advisory to declare it a remnant low since it was only recently upgraded.

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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:20 am

Here's a sat pic of it near its peak intensity on Sunday:

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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#43 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:37 am

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020

The depression's center remains exposed, with any limited convection
displaced more than 90 n mi northeast of the center. Effectively,
the system is on its way to becoming a remnant low this afternoon
if convection does not re-form closer to the center. The initial
wind speed remains 25 kt. The low should gradually spin down
during the next day or two over cool waters while it moves slowly
northwestward. Only a small northeastward shift was made to
the track forecast, and the low should degenerate into a trough of
low pressure in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 20.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 20.9N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z 21.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z 21.2N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:05 pm

30/1730 UTC 20.9N 112.8W TOO WEAK 04E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#45 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: it’s not a remnant low until there’s been no deep convection for ~12 hours. This narrative you push needs to die quite frankly. Given ASCAT never registered more than 25 knots, it’s also hard for me to imagine this being a TS.


I suggest you look back to Sunday when it reached its peak intensity. There were 30kt barbs and flagged 35kt barbs. It started weakening yesterday and was upgraded last evening. There hasn't been any convection around the center for 12 hrs. This low no longer qualifies as a TD. I think the NHC will be downgrading it shortly, though they may wait until the 21Z advisory to declare it a remnant low since it was only recently upgraded.

[url]http://wxman57.com/images/Four-E.JPG[url]

Agree with Wxman57 here. When it got upgraded, it was already decaying. Surprisingly, this system was handled poorly by the NHC. JTWC vibes. I'm expecting this to be named in the offseason.
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

#46 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:38 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Satellite images show that the cyclone continues to lack organized
convection, and thus no longer meets the requirements of a tropical
cyclone. The system is now post tropical, and this is the last NHC
advisory. The initial wind speed is 25 kt, perhaps generously,
based on continuity. The low should weaken and degenerate into a
trough of low pressure due to cool waters during the next day or so
while it moves slowly northwestward.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 20.9N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 21.4N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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