ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Hmm... shear dropping? Would be another major bust for the models.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm... shear dropping? Would be another major bust for the models.

they already have been a big bust.. it was not even supposed to make it this far.... most never even remotely developed it.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1294392742135705603




 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1294392822536314881

[icallstorms]

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
If convection fires off then, NW of the CoC, the anticyclone will likely rotate there and Joe will track into it.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

Has anyone seen “Bones”?!?

[GCANE]

The 355K PV Ring is improving.
All those UL vorts surrounding Joe are reinforcing anticyclonic venting.
What Joe really needs is a good shot of LL, high-moisture air.
May come later tomorrow.
Will be tracking into higher CAPE air due to higher temp water.
And may start to tap into some south Carib, high TPW air.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There isn't some obscure feature shearing Josephine as it moves west-northwest. TUTTs are very easy for models to see and it is very clear to see why globals unanimously dissipate the storm in the short term. That shear, currently assessed at 12kt by SHIPS, nearly triples to 34kt by 36hr. That will be destructive to Josephine on its own, but the SW shear vector will also inject extremely dry air into the circulation.

Don't let the storm's current presentation fool you. It may organize some over the next few hours, but this does not have a long life ahead of it.

[GCANE]

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
If convection fires off then, NW of the CoC, the anticyclone will likely rotate there and Joe will track into it.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

Has anyone seen “Bones”?!?

Went to Sick Bay

[ozonepete]

There isn't some obscure feature shearing Josephine as it moves west-northwest. TUTTs are very easy for models to see and it is very clear to see why globals unanimously dissipate the storm in the short term. That shear, currently assessed at 12kt by SHIPS, nearly triples to 34kt by 36hr. That will be destructive to Josephine on its own, but the SW shear vector will also inject extremely dry air into the circulation.

Don't let the storm's current presentation fool you. It may organize some over the next few hours, but this does not have a long life ahead of it.

Don't let every TUTT's presentation fool you and remember that many who live by the models die by them.
TUTTs often enhance upper outflow for a TC and then lift out and/or weaken, leaving behind a stronger storm. But your points are well taken and we will see how they work out in the next 24-48 hours.

[Nimbus]

18Z models seem to be showing weakening by the time Josephine exits the Hebert box.
She would have to strengthen quite a bit to change the shear environment and that hasn't been seen in her history.
Higher CAPE values might make a difference and she has looked worse during the diurnal minimum.

[Aric Dunn]

18Z models seem to be showing weakening by the time Josephine exits the Hebert box.
She would have to strengthen quite a bit to change the shear environment and that hasn't been seen in her history.
Higher CAPE values might make a difference and she has looked worse during the diurnal minimum.

if we hugged the models 100 percent.. we never would have Josephine at all.. and it also would have died 2 days ago..

[Nimbus]

18Z models seem to be showing weakening by the time Josephine exits the Hebert box.
She would have to strengthen quite a bit to change the shear environment and that hasn't been seen in her history.
Higher CAPE values might make a difference and she has looked worse during the diurnal minimum.

if we hugged the models 100 percent.. we never would have Josephine at all.. and it also would have died 2 days ago..

But its the dynamic solution that is less probable, CAPE values strengthening Josephine enough to effect the shear environment might only have a 10 percent chance of verifying.

[Aric Dunn]

18Z models seem to be showing weakening by the time Josephine exits the Hebert box.
She would have to strengthen quite a bit to change the shear environment and that hasn't been seen in her history.
Higher CAPE values might make a difference and she has looked worse during the diurnal minimum.

if we hugged the models 100 percent.. we never would have Josephine at all.. and it also would have died 2 days ago..

But its the dynamic solution that is less probable, CAPE values strengthening Josephine enough to effect the shear environment might only have a 10 percent chance of verifying.

I was not saying this will all of a sudden deepen and force the shear axis..

point was.. models have been showing for two, almost 3 days it opening up 12 to 24 hours after each model run....

but here we are again and again..

I mentioned earlier.. that the most likely scenario is that... it keeps producing pulses of deep convection ... as a lot of systems do in divergent shear. they dont die.. they just maintain as a sheared mess.

[eastcoastFL]

I've always loved the diversity of opinion on here

They are high-altitude strat-cumulus clouds.
If you look at ice/snow imagery, you can see ice/snow coming off the top of some of them.

Can also tell the anticyclone is to the SW

https://i.imgur.com/MvYvRbH.png

What is it that you have circled here?

[eastcoastFL]

There isn't some obscure feature shearing Josephine as it moves west-northwest. TUTTs are very easy for models to see and it is very clear to see why globals unanimously dissipate the storm in the short term. That shear, currently assessed at 12kt by SHIPS, nearly triples to 34kt by 36hr. That will be destructive to Josephine on its own, but the SW shear vector will also inject extremely dry air into the circulation.

Don't let the storm's current presentation fool you. It may organize some over the next few hours, but this does not have a long life ahead of it.

Isn’t there a decent chance that in 36 hrs the shear could’ve moved on?

[eastcoastFL]

18Z models seem to be showing weakening by the time Josephine exits the Hebert box.
She would have to strengthen quite a bit to change the shear environment and that hasn't been seen in her history.
Higher CAPE values might make a difference and she has looked worse during the diurnal minimum.

if we hugged the models 100 percent.. we never would have Josephine at all.. and it also would have died 2 days ago..

If we hugged models 100% we may have missed half the storms this season

[eastcoastFL]

if we hugged the models 100 percent.. we never would have Josephine at all.. and it also would have died 2 days ago..

But its the dynamic solution that is less probable, CAPE values strengthening Josephine enough to effect the shear environment might only have a 10 percent chance of verifying.

I was not saying this will all of a sudden deepen and force the shear axis..

point was.. models have been showing for two, almost 3 days it opening up 12 to 24 hours after each model run....

but here we are again and again..

I mentioned earlier.. that the most likely scenario is that... it keeps producing pulses of deep convection ... as a lot of systems do in divergent shear. they dont die.. they just maintain as a sheared mess.

Fwiw the HWRF does exactly this. It keeps a pulsing sheared mess chugging along for the next 4-5 days no dissipating.

[tiger_deF]

Is it just me or has Josephine gotten markedly more symmetrical over the last hour?

[GCANE]

They are high-altitude strat-cumulus clouds.
If you look at ice/snow imagery, you can see ice/snow coming off the top of some of them.

Can also tell the anticyclone is to the SW

https://i.imgur.com/MvYvRbH.png

What is it that you have circled here?

Its the icy cirrus clouds coming off the top of the stratus-cumulus clouds.

[eastcoastFL]

Is it just me or has Josephine gotten markedly more symmetrical over the last hour?

It seem like outflow has improved a bit and it’s appearing more circular

[GCANE]

A little better outflow on the SW side where the shear was hitting it.