ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#321 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:31 pm

HWRF is a solid 250 miles SW of the Euro at 5 days.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#322 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:37 pm

I have to say that I am growing more and more uneasy with the continued west and southwest shifts with the models of Teddy.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#323 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:39 pm

cp79 wrote:The Hwrf model is actually moving due west or WSW at end of run. No hint of it moving north. So something to keep an eye on.


The 12z run at 126 hours? Still has WNW motion.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#324 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:59 pm

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#325 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:47 pm

It's mid-September, so a hard phase to the west Sandy-like is unlikely. However, a weaker trough could certainly phase and deflect Teddy NNW.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#326 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:50 pm

One major change I've seen in the model runs recently is thst Paulette gets kicked out faster and faster, likely reducing her interaction with Teddy
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#327 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:05 pm

Significant changes with the evolution of the trough over the eastern US on the 18z GFS. Much more of it is getting left behind, so this is a clear nod to the Euro. I don't think it will fully cave this run though.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#328 Postby StAuggy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:57 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:A significant number of the CMC ensembles bring this near or over New England:

https://i.imgur.com/tn4DeQn.gif


I’m a bit more curious with the members that take it into the mid Atlantic coastline!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#329 Postby shah83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:16 pm

18z HWRF is the same as the 12z in being wildly left of the GFS Operation. This makes me concerned.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#330 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:20 pm

I still think this will most likely recurve but the trends are interesting, we'll see if they keep up.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#331 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:43 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:I still think this will most likely recurve but the trends are interesting, we'll see if they keep up.


The trend is not your friend

How will this recurve

Out to sea without landfall
Landfall in New Foundland
Landfall in Nova Scotia
Landfall in Eastern New England
1938 Long Island Express track

It’s going to be a long week and we probably won’t know at least on the models until Friday or Saturday and it seems we’re trending in the models from option 2 to option 3 or 4 depending on the model
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#332 Postby shaneomac » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:18 pm

I guess Florida is out of the woods ? LOL at this point who really knows .
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#333 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:31 pm

Good news for Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#334 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:41 pm

shaneomac wrote:I guess Florida is out of the woods ? LOL at this point who really knows .

For now, no model shows a Florida impact but I am a bit concerned of those pronounced west shifts. Something to look out for if you’re in the Eastern Seaboard.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#335 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:02 pm

If Teddy goes west of Bermuda, it escapes Paulette's cool wake too, which gives it warmer water to work with.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#336 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:10 pm

plasticup wrote:Good news for Bermuda.

Not yet, need to keep an eye on this in Bermuda
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#337 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:39 pm

Interesting, Sunday GFS had Teddy heading north around 60 w. Wed 18z almost makes to 70 w.
Plus there maybe some interaction with the remnants of Sally.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#338 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:59 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Interesting, Sunday GFS had Teddy heading north around 60 w. Wed 18z almost makes to 70 w.
Plus there maybe some interaction with the remnants of Sally.


If Teddy makes it to 70W, it would be so hard for it to not plow into southern New England.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#339 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:06 pm

The 0zGFS is trending towards the Euro but not quite there yet
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#340 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:07 pm

Image

GFS continuing to make some pretty sweeping changes with the evolution of the trough to the north. Still far too progressive to see any meaningful capture with it, but this is a fluid trend still.
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