ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
skyline385
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 118
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: PBC FL

ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1541 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:39 am

Looks like Pressure is continuing to drop, waiting for drop to confirm.

HWRF and most global models had it continue to intensify until landfall so this is well in line with that. Question is if it will reach the 85 kts winds HWRF predicts.
Last edited by skyline385 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1021
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1542 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:39 am

AF307 Extrapolated pressure has bottomed at 975.3 MB
1 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1021
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1543 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:40 am

wxman57 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
3090 wrote: :eek:

Flight level. Around 80kts at the surface.


SFMR saying 65-70 kts at the surface. That 90kt FL wind was a very sharp/short spike in a heavy squall. Average FL winds 65-75 kts. Doesn't look as impressive on satellite as it did a couple hours ago. May have peaked. Shear will be increasing now.

The 90 knots has been somewhat consistant for several minutes at the NE eyewall area.
1 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
skyline385
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 118
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: PBC FL

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1544 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:46 am

Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Flight level. Around 80kts at the surface.


SFMR saying 65-70 kts at the surface. That 90kt FL wind was a very sharp/short spike in a heavy squall. Average FL winds 65-75 kts. Doesn't look as impressive on satellite as it did a couple hours ago. May have peaked. Shear will be increasing now.

The 90 knots has been somewhat consistant for several minutes at the NE eyewall area.

Just to add to this, the NE Eyewall has consistently been the side with the strongest winds. Here is a drop from almost 5 hours back.Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1545 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:48 am

wxman57 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
3090 wrote: :eek:

Flight level. Around 80kts at the surface.


SFMR saying 65-70 kts at the surface. That 90kt FL wind was a very sharp/short spike in a heavy squall. Average FL winds 65-75 kts. Doesn't look as impressive on satellite as it did a couple hours ago. May have peaked. Shear will be increasing now.

The winds spiked as they entered the eyewall, which isn't what most would call a 'heavy squall'. The same HDOB also had an 87, 89, and 87kt FL wind, so it's not like 91kt is a solitary outlier. SFMR did peak at 70kt.
5 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

Rocketman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 109
Age: 60
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 11:44 am
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1546 Postby Rocketman » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:52 am

Waiting here in Biloxi. Zeta is going to blast through here like a giant weed eater. We’ll be in the clear by midnight and clear, cool, skies by the early AM. Got too many pines on the property so we’ll have to bug out about 3pm. Crazy weather, and I thought the MS Coast had dodged all the bullets of 2020. At least it’s moving fast. I hate hurricanes at night (Camille survivor).
8 likes   
Amateur Radio Extra Class licensee / SkyWarn Certified

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9259
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1547 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:53 am

That's a pretty nasty ass tower zipping east to west.
Could allow for winds to increase all the way to landfall.
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9259
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1548 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:54 am

VDM
977mb
Closed circular eye 24nm wide
At least it won't go pin hole
1 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 525
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Atlantic, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1549 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:54 am

I would say it is still strengthening. CDO is becoming much more symmetrical than it was earlier.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
0 likes   
96'-Bertha 96'-Fran 98'-Bonnie 99'-Dennis 99'-Floyd 03'-Isabel 04'-Alex 05'-Ophelia 11'-Irene 14'-Arthur 16'-Matthew 18'-Florence 19'-Dorian 20'-Isaias (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7989
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1550 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:00 am

Rocketman wrote:Waiting here in Biloxi. Zeta is going to blast through here like a giant weed eater. We’ll be in the clear by midnight and clear, cool, skies by the early AM. Got too many pines on the property so we’ll have to bug out about 3pm. Crazy weather, and I thought the MS Coast had dodged all the bullets of 2020. At least it’s moving fast. I hate hurricanes at night (Camille survivor).


Looks to be an afternoon landfall here which is pretty rare - at least anecdotally. Hoping for the best for those trees and your home.
3 likes   

facemane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:36 pm

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1551 Postby facemane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:00 am

Rocketman wrote:Waiting here in Biloxi. Zeta is going to blast through here like a giant weed eater. We’ll be in the clear by midnight and clear, cool, skies by the early AM. Got too many pines on the property so we’ll have to bug out about 3pm. Crazy weather, and I thought the MS Coast had dodged all the bullets of 2020. At least it’s moving fast. I hate hurricanes at night (Camille survivor).


I live in Biloxi. When I built my home,the first thing I did was cut down every pine tree that could have fallen on the house during a storm. it doesn't take a strong hurricane to bring those down.
3 likes   

hurricanehunter69
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 324
Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 5:21 pm
Location: New Orleans

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1552 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 am

A complete rap around with a cleared out eye may be in progress? Zeta may still be strengthening? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined
2 likes   

slamdaddy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:57 am
Location: Gautier, MS

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1553 Postby slamdaddy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:04 am

facemane wrote:
Rocketman wrote:Waiting here in Biloxi. Zeta is going to blast through here like a giant weed eater. We’ll be in the clear by midnight and clear, cool, skies by the early AM. Got too many pines on the property so we’ll have to bug out about 3pm. Crazy weather, and I thought the MS Coast had dodged all the bullets of 2020. At least it’s moving fast. I hate hurricanes at night (Camille survivor).


I live in Biloxi. When I built my home,the first thing I did was cut down every pine tree that could have fallen on the house during a storm. it doesn't take a strong hurricane to bring those down.



I hear ya. I bought the lot behind me after Katrina just to clear the pines off it. After taking a couple on my house over the years, got tired of it.
5 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1737
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda (temporarily in NE US)

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1554 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:05 am

Image
8 likes   
Florence 2006, Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3692
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1555 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:06 am

CDO is looking better, and some hot towers are firing on the shallower side of the eyewall. AF307 just recorded a drop in extrapolated pressures to 974 mbar.
6 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
mpic
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 447
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:24 am
Location: Splendora, TX

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1556 Postby mpic » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:09 am

Stormgodess wrote:
xironman wrote:Looking at the GFS, Zeta goes from New Orleans to Richmond VA in 18hrs, about as fast as you can drive it.


Saw a wind gust forecast for Alabama with it still packing 60mph gust as it leaves the Northeast corner of the state, early Thurs morning


About what time will TS winds arrive in Atlanta today?
0 likes   
NE of Houston

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1021
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1557 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:11 am

aspen wrote:CDO is looking better, and some hot towers are firing on the shallower side of the eyewall. AF307 just recorded a drop in extrapolated pressures to 974 mbar.

Dropsone #22 has recorded the lowest pressure of 977 MB
0 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019 2020 October Ice Storm

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1133
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1558 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:12 am

mpic wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:
xironman wrote:Looking at the GFS, Zeta goes from New Orleans to Richmond VA in 18hrs, about as fast as you can drive it.


Saw a wind gust forecast for Alabama with it still packing 60mph gust as it leaves the Northeast corner of the state, early Thurs morning


About what time will TS winds arrive in Atlanta today?

Sometime early tomorrow around 4 to 8am
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7989
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1559 Postby Steve » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:13 am

Lowest pressure I can find from Slidell NWS is 29.82 in Galliano down the bayou in south Lafourch Parish which is just about 40 miles NNW of Grand Isle up LA Highway 1. This is something to start watching around 12/1pm as we should know where the center is exactly coming in and what those downstream implications are for NO over to the Panhandle.
3 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1038
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1560 Postby Ken711 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:14 am

mpic wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:
xironman wrote:Looking at the GFS, Zeta goes from New Orleans to Richmond VA in 18hrs, about as fast as you can drive it.


Saw a wind gust forecast for Alabama with it still packing 60mph gust as it leaves the Northeast corner of the state, early Thurs morning


About what time will TS winds arrive in Atlanta today?


Image
3 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests