ATL: SAM - Models

[pgoss11]

https://i.postimg.cc/dQWZGZFB/F2-C68-DBF-BAC4-4-A41-A720-715-A1-D958-D0-C.png

I got to go with climatology on this one and say safely away from US coastline.

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It's incredibly, incredibly hard to get a storm nearly at 30W to hit the CONUS this time of year. Odds of significant impacts from future Sam, while not completely impossible, appear much slimmer today.

[Shell Mound]

12Z Eps say not so fast OP....

https://i.imgur.com/nQ7bgSQ.gif

Even so, roughly four-fifths of the fifty-one ensemble members show either OTS or impacts to Bermuda. Most even pass to the north of the Caribbean.

[sma10]

It's incredibly, incredibly hard to get a storm nearly at 30W to hit the CONUS this time of year. Odds of significant impacts from future Sam, while not completely impossible, appear much slimmer today.

Statistically it's incredibly hard to get a storm at 30W to hit the CONUS any time of year.

In October, history tells us it's almost impossible

[aspen]

It's incredibly, incredibly hard to get a storm nearly at 30W to hit the CONUS this time of year. Odds of significant impacts from future Sam, while not completely impossible, appear much slimmer today.

I know everyone’s focused on either the CONUS or the Lesser Antilles, but this could be a significant problem for Bermuda if the more SW tracks verify. I’m not worried about the CONUS yet because it’s so far out and, as you and others have said, climo is on our side this late in the season.

IMO, it’s probably best to wait another day or two until 98L has a better defined LLC to give more merit to possible tracks past 60W. 98L could get further north quicker and be OTS like the GFS, or it could retain a W/WNW motion for longer and be a threat or close call for the Leeward Islands like the Euro.

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440766291787145216




This is a long way from being decided. This will swing back and forth.

[Zonacane]

When are people gonna learn clinging to climotology and treating 200+ hour model runs as deterministic is a bad idea?

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440766291787145216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1440766291787145216%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Fwebberweather2Fstatus2F1440766291787145216widget%3DTweet

This is a long way from being decided. This will swing back and forth.

Looks like those ensembles have two distinct clusters: a sharp recurve east of the islands or a continued WNW track. Hmm...

[Shell Mound]

The above screenshot shows the EPS members through D7 (168h). The members that show a hurricane at or before this time all pass to the north of the islands.

[skyline385]

The above screenshot shows the EPS members through D7 (168h). The members that show a hurricane at or before this time all pass to the north of the islands.

That's a very good observation. With the NHC even predicting a major at D5, it seems very likely that all solutions will start converging to a recurve...

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF: Operational now NE of ensemble mean through hr 216.

12z GEFS: Operational NE of ens mean

[StormPyrate]

When are people gonna learn clinging to climotology and treating 200+ hour model runs as deterministic is a bad idea?

when climatology becomes irrelevant, and we are no where near that point.
Been watching these things for a long time. And the beginning of cold front season in Florida means the chances drop for a direct impact from across the ocean.
By no means out of the woods, could still have something pop up closer to home.

[skyline385]

18Z GFS slower so far

[Blown Away]

18z GFS +150 hrs... HP a little stronger and trough a bit weaker...

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1440757336323153922

[Blown Away]

18z GFS+174 hrs... @200 mile S shift at 174 hrs...

[Blown Away]

18z vs 12z GFS Trend... Huge S shift.

[Hurricaneman]

Probably out to sea between Bermuda and North Carolina this run

[SouthFLTropics]

Despite it being further south, it appears that there is a clear exit. Trap door open.