ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

Looks like an ERC after all

BD has looked ERCy at times but…

https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1441519568049090561?s=21

Hmm. Satellite presentation has degraded rather significantly since the pass, so either the eye is obscured by hot towers again, or an EWRC took place after all.

[IsabelaWeather]

looks like its turning more nw now. Would be hard to hit the islands if true

[AnnularCane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6515/GYqCpB.gif

Somebody just opened his eye.

[grapealcoholic]

It's about to go crazy good lord

[aspen]

I’m expecting a low-end Cat 2 for 11pm if the eye clears out again and remains mostly clear by 8-10pm.

[ElectricStorm]

Cloud tops warming on IR. Looks like it might be an ERC after all.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like there might be some SW shear. Apparently models can struggle to pick up on increased low-level flow due to SAL

[aspen]

The HWRF has consistently been forecasting Sam to become a major with a very similar IR structure to Felicia earlier in the year. I hope that verifies, because then we would have two similar storms and one with recon to help figure out what the other was like. Felicia had a very smooth CDO and warm eye with a stadium effect, but its coldest cloud tops were a little warm like Dorian. It could’ve been a little stronger than the NHC’s official estimate, and if Sam becomes a Felicia clone, this theory could be confirmed or debunked.

[Ubuntwo]

Sam is quite the compact hurricane. His CDO is only ~120 miles across with a tight band to the east and a more displaced band to the north. Does not lend itself to ERCs in the short term IMO.

[Stormybajan]

Looks to me like Sam's eye wants to make a reappearance after that eyewall replacement? Im calling for Cat 2 at 11.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1441538351190843399

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks to me like Sam's eye wants to make a reappearance after that eyewall replacement? Im calling for Cat 2 at 11.

The CDO overshot the eye for a bit but given the eye and wind field didn't expand in size, there's no evidence of an ERC.

[Iceresistance]

I measured the eye using the Weathernerds Measuring tool, the eye is about 12 Miles wide . . .

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT24 KNES 250023
TCSNTL

A. 18L (SAM)

B. 25/0000Z

C. 12.3N

D. 45.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 4.5. AN EYE
THAT IS DG AND IS SURROUNDED BY LG RESULTS IN AN EADJ OF 0.0 GIVING A CF
OF 4.5. NO BF IS ADDED RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. THE MET IS 5.0 BASED
ON A NORMALLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE PT IS 5.0 AS WELL. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

This is both embedded in MG and surrounded by B. Why has SAB regressed so hard this year?

[Iceresistance]

Eye Temperature now above -20°C & rapidly warming . . .

[AlphaToOmega]

Hurricane Sam is now 85 knots.

AL, 18, 2021092500, , BEST, 0, 123N, 454W, 85, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 5, 10, 1013, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[Teban54]

The HWRF has consistently been forecasting Sam to become a major with a very similar IR structure to Felicia earlier in the year. I hope that verifies, because then we would have two similar storms and one with recon to help figure out what the other was like. Felicia had a very smooth CDO and warm eye with a stadium effect, but its coldest cloud tops were a little warm like Dorian. It could’ve been a little stronger than the NHC’s official estimate, and if Sam becomes a Felicia clone, this theory could be confirmed or debunked.

We're already seeing that taking place. Sam's eye is now rapidly clearing but its cloud tops remain quite warm.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 986.1mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.6 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -55.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I agree with the 85kts. Still looks well on it's way to become a major