ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1441861731202916354

[ouragans]

I know we will get an advisory based on Dvorak and likely conservative. If Recon finds something dramatically different, a Special Advisory around 6 pm is certainly possible.

Will they do a Special Advisory while there's no threat to land?

[Teban54]

I know we will get an advisory based on Dvorak and likely conservative. If Recon finds something dramatically different, a Special Advisory around 6 pm is certainly possible.

Will they do a Special Advisory while there's no threat to land?

They did a special advisory for Rose to put its intensity at 45 kts, so yes.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1441850092126941185

[InfernoFlameCat]

I know we will get an advisory based on Dvorak and likely conservative. If Recon finds something dramatically different, a Special Advisory around 6 pm is certainly possible.

Will they do a Special Advisory while there's no threat to land?

they did with Lorenzo so if this ends up being 10 or more knots than what they say in the 5pm advisory (EDT) then I think they will.

[kevin]

Roughly 90 - 100 minutes until recon arrives.

[DioBrando]

Which of these are big names? These are the updated analogs for Sam:

[CrazyC83]

I know we will get an advisory based on Dvorak and likely conservative. If Recon finds something dramatically different, a Special Advisory around 6 pm is certainly possible.

Will they do a Special Advisory while there's no threat to land?

they did with Lorenzo so if this ends up being 10 or more knots than what they say in the 5pm advisory (EDT) then I think they will.

They would have to, since it would be a long wait until 11 pm.

[Hammy]

With the plane flying, hopefully we can get a Cat 5 out of this since there's no land in the picture for almost a week.

[DioBrando]

Which of these are big names? These are the updated analogs for Sam:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/800876865430356021/891422763250749500/unknown.png

Seems like he's the most similar to "Hugo 1989" pathwise now

[aspen]

After this morning's structural hiccup, I never would've expected Sam would turn into this less than 10 hours later. Finally, an amazing looking major that isn't about to make landfall.




The ACE from Sam is going to be ridiculous if it is indeed a Cat 5.

[DioBrando]

...SAM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

[DioBrando]

After this morning's structural hiccup, I never would've expected Sam would turn into this less than 10 hours later. Finally, an amazing looking major that isn't about to make landfall.
https://i.imgur.com/OGvwBkO.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/5reAq4W.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/4UO12Nc.jpg

The ACE from Sam is going to be ridiculous if it is indeed a Cat 5.

Not a Cat 5 at the moment, but they did pull the Cat 4 trigger:

5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 25
Location: 13.3°N 48.5°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

Whereas Theresa's as limp as a wet pancake right now.

[kevin]

Peak intensity now estimated to be 130 kt. Might already be beaten by recon in a little more than an hour.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.3N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

[DioBrando]

Peak intensity now estimated to be 130 kt. Might already be beaten by recon in a little more than an hour.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.3N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 13.7N 49.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 14.9N 51.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 15.7N 52.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.4N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

Most likely a conservative estimate tbh ngl. I have seen some updated models which predict a category 5 out of sam.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1441866443121778693




image copy

[grapealcoholic]

Taking a little west jog now it seems

[kevin]

So what are your estimates for the intensity when recon arrive? I'm going with 130-135 kt and 937 mbar, 135 kt if I had to pick one of the two. Maybe one of those cases where SFMR supports a cat 5, but FL winds are still slightly lower. But I'm wishcasting a cat 5 since it's no threat to land for now.

[DioBrando]

So what are your estimates for the intensity when recon arrive? I'm going with 130-135 kt and 937 mbar, 135 kt if I had to pick one of the two. Maybe one of those cases where SFMR supports a cat 5, but FL winds are still slightly lower. But I'm wishcasting a cat 5 since it's no threat to land for now.

140kt, 934 mbar

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sam's small size may mitigate upwelling unless it begins to crawl forward. I still expect the cold wake though to be significant but rather narrow.