ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 27, 2021 7:11 pm

AL, 91, 2021092800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 320W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 043, SPAWNINVEST, al772021 to al912021,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:00 pm

Now we finally won't see people confused about which AOI is which.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:15 am

5-day formation chance reduced to 80%.
Also, they're now expecting it to move more WNW than W.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 7:44 am

AL, 91, 2021092812, , BEST, 0, 90N, 331W, 25, 1010, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 28, 2021 8:44 am

Two things I am curious to see is if 91L merges with 90L or if 91L ends up as a sleeper wave and fueld whatever the Caribbean looks to want to spawn sometime soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:21 am

I could see this one being absorbed by 90L's large circulation. GFS has gone from developing this area into a hurricane to not showing any development until maybe it reaches the Southwest Atlantic. Regardless, not much happening at the surface here. All the focus is with 90L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:27 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:38 pm

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:53 pm

Not looking great. Definitely appears 90L is the dominant system and this will likely get absorbed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 28, 2021 6:37 pm

The GEFS ensembles still show development; the GFS and HWRF still show development. This has a chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby bob rulz » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:22 pm

Is this a system that could ride the low latitudes and make it into the Caribbean?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:22 pm

bob rulz wrote:Is this a system that could ride the low latitudes and make it into the Caribbean?


Good question. There's zero doubt in my mind that this would be a Caribbean bound risk to develop, should it not develop beforehand. With warmer SST's in it's path, I'd still bet on development on approach to 50W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:40 am

Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains limited. This system is
expected to move slowly west-northwestward, and development is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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