EPAC: RICK - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:51 pm

Important from discussion.

The new intensity forecast has higher intensities
over the previous forecast and now calls for Rick to reach a peak
intensity of 90 kt, which could be conservative.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:05 pm

This is looking pretty good compared to other systems in this region this season.

Now has a persistent CDO feature:

Image

Has that pre-major look:
Image
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:31 pm

In terms of intensity, this will probably do what Pamela was supposed to do and become a major before landfall. Really dangerous situation for Mexico here.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:52 pm

Image

0z GFS calling for a strong hurricane (965 mbar officially) by Sunday afternoon.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:54 pm

Recon should be in it for its peak.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:47 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:52 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2021 Time : 052020 UTC
Lat : 13:33:19 N Lon : 101:23:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.0mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.8

Center Temp : -62.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:09 am

Image

Probably going to be a hurricane in a short order assuming there’s been good inner core development which there probably is. Warrants T4.0 assessment.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:14 am

TXPZ21 KNES 230547
TCSENP

A. 17E (RICK)

B. 23/0530Z

C. 13.6N

D. 101.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 3.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON PT
BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby FireRat » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:04 am

OCT 25 could be a big day if Rick keeps up his pace, holy cow. This storm also happens to be 3 days from landfall from the day he became a TS (10/22). Three days seems to be the magic number in a bad way for the amount of time it takes a tropical storm to blow up until peaking right at landfall (like Michael for example).

Hopefully the storm doesn't find ideal conditions for strengthening all the way to landfall.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:06 am

17E RICK 211023 0600 13.7N 101.4W EPAC 55 997
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 2:13 am

Image

0z ECMWF under initialized of course but now has a realistic Michoacán landfall at least. Lazaro Cardenas needs to watch this closely though luckily the rest of the costal parts of the state are sparsely populated.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:09 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:21 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 101.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch eastward
to Tecpan de Galeana and has also extended the Tropical Storm
Watch eastward to Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.4 West. Rick is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through
Sunday. Rick is expected to become a hurricane today, and it
is forecast to become a major hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown





Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

The satellite presentation of Rick has continued to improve
overnight. The center is embedded within a fairly symmetric and
expanding central dense overcast, and there is evidence of outer
banding features. There has been no recent microwave imagery
to examine the inner core structure, but given the recent satellite
appearance and the earlier microwave data, it is likely that the
inner core has become better defined. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers
supported an intensity of 55 kt at 0600 UTC, and given the
continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity has
been set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Rick this afternoon and should provide a
better assessment of the storm's strength and structure.

Rick has been intensifying quickly since it developed yesterday
morning, and environmental conditions consisting of very low
vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist
low- to mid-level atmosphere are expected to continue to support
rapid strengthening during the next day or so. The SHIPS rapid
intensification index is showing a greater than 90 percent chance
of rapid strengthening over the next 24 hours, and also indicates a
better than 80 percent chance of a 45 kt increase in intensity over
the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance the NHC intensity
forecast calls for rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36
hours, and the official forecast shows Rick reaching major
hurricane status within 36 hours. This is near the higher end of
the intensity guidance envelope, but is not as high as the HFIP
corrected consensus aid. Increasing shear after that time and the
possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some
fluctuations in intensity before Rick reaches the coast of Mexico.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is likely to
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico in 72 to 96 hours.

Rick has turned north-northwestward or 330/5 kt. A slow
north-northwestward to northward track is expected around the
western side of a mid-level ridge centered of the Caribbean.
Although the guidance agrees on that general steering flow, there
are still significant difference regarding the location and timing
of landfall in southern or southwestern Mexico. The GFS, Canadian,
and HWRF are along the eastern edge of the track model envelope
while the ECMWF, UKMET, and CTCI models are along the western side.
The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the
previous advisory but remains close to the various consensus aids.
It should be noted that the global model ensembles suggest a
stronger cyclone is likely to track more eastward. Therefore the
official forecast has been nudged in that direction and it is
possible future eastward adjustments could be required.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended
both the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches farther eastward.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for
portions of the watch areas later this morning.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are possible within the Hurricane Watch area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from
east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting tonight, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.6N 101.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.0N 102.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.5N 103.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0600Z 20.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0600Z 25.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:41 am

This looks like it’s going pinhole. You’d think this would be something on the Atlantic side of Central America instead of the Pacific side during a La Niña.

Edit: yep, it’s a pinhole
Image
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:21 am

Recon will leave at ~1300z and arrive at ~1700z, correct?
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:38 am

aspen wrote:Recon will leave at ~1300z and arrive at ~1700z, correct?


Yes.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#79 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:48 am

WTPZ32 KNHC 231146
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

...RICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 101.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Rick is
expected to become a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#80 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:02 am

Rick went from a tropical depression to a hurricane in just 21 hours. This is the second fastest instance this year, surpassed only by Chanthu, which went from a TD to a Cat 1 in just 18 hours. Behind Rick is Ida, which took 28 hours and 15 minutes.
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