EPAC: RICK - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#181 Postby Netzero9455 » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:13 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Not sure how 96 FL and 89 SFMR supports 85.


In your opinion, what would it support? 90kt?
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#182 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:19 am

Netzero9455 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Not sure how 96 FL and 89 SFMR supports 85.


In your opinion, what would it support? 90kt?



Yes, primarily due to the SFMR.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#183 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:43 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#184 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:33 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#185 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:39 am

17E RICK 211025 0600 17.2N 101.7W EPAC 90 977
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#186 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:05 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#187 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:18 am

Should be onshore by 9-10z likely just east of the Guerrero-Michoacán border but there’s actually a warm spot now.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#188 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:23 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#189 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:38 am

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Would be a major with 6-12 more hours no problem.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#190 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:16 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#191 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:42 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250840
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Rick's satellite presentation has improved overnight with a warm
spot occasionally evident within the central dense overcast. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that provided two center
penetrations into the hurricane overnight measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 96 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 85-89 kt.
Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to
90 kt. Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum pressure is around
977 mb. With the center now very close to the coast of southern
Mexico, little change in strength is expected before Rick crosses
the coast within the next couple of hours. After landfall,
rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the
rugged terrain of southern Mexico, and the circulation is likely to
dissipate within 24-36 hours, if not sooner.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Rick is moving a little
faster just west of due north or 350/7 kt. A low-latitude
mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the cyclone
northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs. This
motion will bring the center inland over southern Mexico by later
today. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement although
most of the model trackers lose the system after 12 hours due to
dissipation of the low-level circulation. The updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the
TCVN multi-model consensus aid.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast
Mexico within the next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds to a portion of the
Hurricane Warning area.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning areas through late today.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.7N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.7N 102.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0600Z 19.8N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#192 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:46 am

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#193 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:03 am

Hurricane Rick Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
500 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST EAST OF
LAZARO CARDENAS....

Satellite imagery indicates the center of Rick made landfall along
the coast of southern Mexico about 15 miles (25 km) east of Lazaro
Cardenas, Mexico with an estimated intensity of 105 mph (165 km/h).
The minimum central pressure estimated from earlier reconnaissance
aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 102.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#195 Postby beoumont » Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:02 am

From the 0900z Advisory: position marked with red circle


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#196 Postby Astromanía » Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:28 am

Slightly stronger than olaf
Last edited by Astromanía on Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#197 Postby Astromanía » Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:32 am

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/902113389336207431/image0.jpg

Would be a major with 6-12 more hours no problem.[/quote]

If it haven't been for dry air and mid level shear mostly due to la niña, this Olaf and Pamela are examples of hurricanes that could have been majors, still I expect great damage from this hurricane as a cat 2 in that region, this could be the deadliest hurricane of the season
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#198 Postby zeehag » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:59 am

friend sent me a message from zihuat--- heavy surf heavy rain and howling winds at playa principal. he lives almost on the beach, just up a cliff from the main beach of zihuat. no lights now.
i hope this does not hurt that lovely lil town and its people much. bay is south facing and open--could get ugly in there
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#199 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:38 am

What is the strongest recorded landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coastline during La Niña?
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#200 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:27 pm

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