ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#121 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 1:27 am

In addition to LarryWx's post, the 00Z CMC, GFDL and Nogaps take the system into CA. The 00Z GFS, HWRF and UKMET take it north thru the Yucatan Channel and possibly NE towards Cuba/Florida. Model divergence is emerging...which should not surprise anybody since there is no well defined LLC at this time with this Invest.

#122 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:08 am

waiting on first Vis but LLC appears tighter this morning on the IR..Once some modest NE shear abates should begin to ramp up on Sunday...

#123 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 4:31 am

00Z HWRF remains consistent with a major hurricane over the NW Carribean. The GFDL at this point is very inconsistent with both intensity and direction. Recon heads out today and I expect an upgrade to TD status for the 5pm package. Well also start getting data from recon funneled into the models possibly for the 00z model suite tonight.

#124 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 5:56 am

I can't see any strong evidence of a circulation on satellite.

#125 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:01 am

Well,now what? 00z Euro almost drops it and more than that,GFS drops it at 06z.

#126 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:18 am

I see that, why no 06z Bams?

#127 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:26 am

cycloneye wrote:Well,now what? 00z Euro almost drops it and more than that,GFS drops it at 06z.

noticed that Luis, gota love the tropics. Will be awaiting the 12z on both for sure!

rainstorm · #128 Postby **rainstorm** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:27 am

06 gfs says what storm? the problem is it develops a powerful low in the eastern US which means nothing can develop in the carib.

#129 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:34 am

New outlook down to 60% - less organized. I'd agree with the less organized part.

#130 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:34 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I guess the NHC gives weight to the 06z models.

#131 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:44 am

The tropics always are an enigma as things change constantly as one day you see things evolving into a strong system,but the next day,it all falls apart as the models are doing. What will the future hold for 96L? Rina or nothing?

#132 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:11 am

I do think it has a good chance of becoming a TS, but not until tomorrow or Monday.

boca · #133 Postby **boca** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:19 am

wxman57 wrote:I do think it has a good chance of becoming a TS, but not until tomorrow or Monday.

Wxman 57 do you think its going to head into Central America and die,or head north towards cuba and S FL?

Nimbus · #134 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:34 am

Fair amount of energy there if it doesn't move inland over CA. Check back on Monday.

#135 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:37 am

cycloneye wrote:Well,now what? 00z Euro almost drops it and more than that,GFS drops it at 06z.

To complete the drops, GFDL and HWRF didn't run at 06z.

#136 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:40 am

12z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 817W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#137 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:40 am

Most models now either bring into CA or dont develope it at all.

#138 Postby **NDG** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 7:42 am

I agree with the latest best track position as the Island of San Andres has been reporting calm winds since past midnight, COC appears to be right over the island, reporting the pressure of 1007 mb, convection to the NW of the COC.

#139 Postby **NDG** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:20 am

The Island of San Andres is now reporting WSW winds, indication that possibly the COC is moving closer to the convection off the east coast of Nica.

METAR text: SKSP 221300Z 24015KT 9999 SCT015 BKN080 25/23 A2975 REDZ
Conditions at: SKSP (SAN ANDRES ISLAN, CO) observed 1300 UTC 22 October 2011
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 8000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 8000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

sunnyday · #140 Postby **sunnyday** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:41 am

Just visited the models page(s), and the folks there said that most models are dropping this. 8-)

ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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