ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I can picture it now, we get a clear eye and eyewall and the TWO drops to 50/50

Surrounding conditions just aren't favorable right now. I agree with the NHC decision, although maybe a 80/90 wouldn't hurt.

[Ubuntwo]

I can picture it now, we get a clear eye and eyewall and the TWO drops to 50/50

Funny but not likely, they would upgrade something like that,

I feel at 2 they go 80 to 90% and Gonzalo at 5

That's assuming Dmin cooperates.

[chaser1]

I imagine what NHC will come up with on the next TDO will be ".... 99L continues to get better organized and a T.D. is likely to for later today". I'd guess they'll hold off until 5:00pm

[NDG]

Still scratching my head that there was no upgrade at 11 AST, how much more proof do they need that it is a TD?

[EquusStorm]

One of those cases when the best track will be pulled 12 hours back in post-analysis assuming it ever gets upgraded to begin with. Probably 70/70 at 2 and TD at 5 if they even classify. Tropical wave spawned storms certainly have to work a lot harder to be upgraded than high latitude subtropical systems

[StruThiO]

This is a tropical cyclone.

[chaser1]

99L has such a classic look

[SFLcane]

Still scratching my head that there was no upgrade at 11 AST, how much more proof do they need that it is a TD?

https://i.imgur.com/LQeZOhj.png
https://i.imgur.com/AZVSEMv.gif

Yeah surprised honestly. This is an odd one for sure.

[SFLcane]

Lol there you go!!

80% -80%


Updated: Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate
that the low pressure system located about midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better
organized. If current trends continue, advisories could be
initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today.
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less
favorable conditions should limit additional development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Florida1118]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the status of the
reconnaissance mission originally scheduled for the system near the
Straits of Florida and to increase the formation chances for the
system in the tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better organized. If current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today. Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should limit additional development by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[MississippiWx]

I can picture it now, we get a clear eye and eyewall and the TWO drops to 50/50

Surrounding conditions just aren't favorable right now. I agree with the NHC decision, although maybe a 80/90 wouldn't hurt.

Surrounding conditions must be favorable enough for a tropical cyclone because this is one.

[EquusStorm]

I don't think surrounding conditions are especially relevant when an obvious TC exists despite them, if only briefly; perhaps the only reason I'd agree to hold off is to see if the convective bursts around the obvious closed LLC continue and sustain but again, there are plenty far more marginal systems that have been upgraded (mostly at high latitudes) so guess we see what happens at 5. If not at least a 70/70 on TWO I'm going to be bewildered

Oh, spoke to soon on the TWO. At least it's acknowledged

[shiny-pebble]

Would they classify it at 2PM?? Otherwise what was the purpose of the STWO??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

Lol there you!!

80% -80%


Updated: Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate
that the low pressure system located about midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better
organized. If current trends continue, advisories could be
initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today.
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less
favorable conditions should limit additional development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Absolutely getting an upgrade at 5 pm, especially if ASCAT continues to show 25-30 kt wind barbs.

[Ubuntwo]

I don't think surrounding conditions are especially relevant when an obvious TC exists despite them, if only briefly; perhaps the only reason I'd agree to hold off is to see if the convective bursts around the obvious closed LLC continue and sustain but again, there are plenty far more marginal systems that have been upgraded (mostly at high latitudes) so guess we see what happens at 5. If not at least a 70/70 on TWO I'm going to be bewildered

Considering the 80/80 STWO, advisories should come by 5 as long as it doesn't go poof.

[EquusStorm]

That's pretty much a lock for classification at 5 IF convection stays organized and sustained, though I'm kinda surprised they didn't just wait til 2 for the regular TWO. Guess they could issue a special advisory to upgrade it but that's pretty rare unless affecting land. 5pm upgrade and later best track revision in post analysis seems about right

[plasticup]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/735115684509515856/LATEST.png
slap a number on it

Well that's impressive!

[chaser1]

Darn?! I almost pulled this out of my butt (this, from Talkin Tropics thread). Looks like i'll be off by one day and a couple of degrees.

Re: Will any named storms form in the MDR in July?

#11 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:52 am

Yes, on July 21 at 10.7N & 46.5W with an estimated 1006 mb pressure (one day following the New Moon)

[EquusStorm]

Given the obviously closed LLC I'm guessing they are waiting to make sure the convection is sustained around the LLC through dmin instead of just pulsing. That's fair, though arguably it probably already has been a TC for a bit regardless

[Do_For_Love]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1285594289985032195