ATL: HERMINE - Models

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1961 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:38 am

gfs ridge is stronger!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1962 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:39 am

do u have a link of the ukmet?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1963 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:41 am

HWRF is out to 18 hours...I'm very interested to see if it maintains the consistency it's had over the past 3 runs. Look for the ramp up starting around hour 72 to 84.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1964 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:43 am

Canadian kills it as it brings Fiona into SC as a tropical storm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1965 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:45 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF is out to 18 hours...I'm very interested to see if it maintains the consistency it's had over the past 3 runs. Look for the ramp up starting around hour 72 to 84.


Into Puerto Rico as a tropical storm at 27 hours.. further south so far.. may not avoid DR on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1966 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:46 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF is out to 18 hours...I'm very interested to see if it maintains the consistency it's had over the past 3 runs. Look for the ramp up starting around hour 72 to 84.


Into Puerto Rico as a tropical storm at 27 hours.. further south so far.. may not avoid DR on this run.


Yep, much further South and West. If it gets tangled with Hispaniola it will struggle for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1967 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:47 am

last nights hwrf had a ts in 15 hours. now this 12z run has a TS in 6 hours.. right on que..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1968 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:last nights hwrf had a ts in 15 hours. now this 12z run has a TS in 6 hours.. right on que..


That wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1969 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:51 am

Alyono wrote:Canadian kills it as it brings Fiona into SC as a tropical storm


It gives the GFS some credit on Fiona staying stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1970 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:52 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF is out to 18 hours...I'm very interested to see if it maintains the consistency it's had over the past 3 runs. Look for the ramp up starting around hour 72 to 84.


Into Puerto Rico as a tropical storm at 27 hours.. further south so far.. may not avoid DR on this run.


Yep, much further South and West. If it gets tangled with Hispaniola it will struggle for sure.


Still north of Hispaniola on this north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1971 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:55 am

The CMC seems to have Fiona absorbing 99L like the GFS.

This may be one of the most complex and challenging forecasts for these models in a long-time with huge implications.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1972 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:57 am

gatorcane wrote:The CMC seems to have Fiona absorbing 99L like the GFS.

This may be one of the most complex and challenging forecasts for these models in a long-time with huge implications.


Its just crazy to think of that happening... ex Fiona is just a speck compared to 99L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1973 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:57 am

In the Turks and Caicos @ 48 hours on the latest HRWF - still relatively weak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1974 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:58 am

Out to 48 hrs 12z HWRF is significantly weaker than previous runs...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1975 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:58 am

Looks like HWRF is going to be weaker on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1976 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:59 am

chris_fit wrote:In the Turks and Caicos @ 48 hours on the latest HRWF - still relatively weak


right about where the last few runs started to deepen...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1977 Postby hurrtracker79 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:00 pm

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768130763917234176


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1978 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:01 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The CMC seems to have Fiona absorbing 99L like the GFS.

This may be one of the most complex and challenging forecasts for these models in a long-time with huge implications.


Its just crazy to think of that happening... ex Fiona is just a speck compared to 99L


Yeah it is you would think it would be the opposite with 99L absorbing fionas remnants
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1979 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:01 pm

Alyono wrote:this MU run is a pile of cow dung. It has FIONA better defined than this system


at least the gfs is regular...yesterday it had a dung too per alyono..seriously, when you see such differing solutions in a short time period from the same model you really have to wonder about its output at this time :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1980 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:02 pm

12z HWRF looses it, lol
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