ATL : TOMAS - Models

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops in Central Caribbean and later moves towards Hispanola.Graphic uploaded with imageshack.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Its also been carve out some kind if entrained hybrid storm in the SE to NE..been persistant with that.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC tracks thru Lesser Antilles as a Tropical Storm,then later thru Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

The CMC model, is the big trough over Central Atlantic the trough that is supposed to bring very cool temps down to Florida? Looks like a ridge building in at that time maybe to block 91L??

[cycloneye]

HWRF has been consistent since the first run on 91L by having a cat 2 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.This is the 10/28/10 12z run. On the contrary,GFDL has not shown anything.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

There is no text yet of the 18z run by the bams,but here is the graphic with the tracks.SHIP goes up to 104 mph.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting that the GFDL, which has been my choice most of this season as the best performing model, has not picked up on 91L as of yet.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z text of the Bams.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC THU OCT 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101028 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101028  1800   101029  0600   101029  1800   101030  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     7.7N  50.4W    8.4N  54.2W    9.4N  58.0W   10.2N  61.3W
BAMD     7.7N  50.4W    8.2N  53.2W    8.8N  56.0W    9.5N  58.5W
BAMM     7.7N  50.4W    8.3N  53.4W    9.0N  56.5W    9.8N  59.2W
LBAR     7.7N  50.4W    8.7N  53.4W    9.8N  56.3W   11.1N  59.5W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          41KTS          49KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          41KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101030  1800   101031  1800   101101  1800   101102  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  63.8W   11.2N  68.2W   11.8N  71.9W   12.1N  74.4W
BAMD    10.1N  60.8W   11.5N  65.3W   13.3N  69.7W   14.6N  73.2W
BAMM    10.4N  61.4W   11.5N  65.6W   12.7N  69.6W   13.5N  72.9W
LBAR    12.0N  61.3W   15.7N  64.9W   17.9N  65.1W   17.8N  62.7W
SHIP        60KTS          75KTS          86KTS          95KTS
DSHP        50KTS          70KTS          81KTS          91KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   7.7N LONCUR =  50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =   6.8N LONM12 =  46.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =   6.0N LONM24 =  43.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Fego]

As soon as the GFDL gets on board, then I will be in alert mode. Anyway, we are saying good bye to October and the Atlantic looks like September. No doubt it has been a very active hurricane season.
!Go Giants!

[KWT]

Most models are developing this system, so will be interesting to see if it can get going, track looks very uncertain still, a track towards the WNW/nW looks likely which will take it into E/C Caribbean where development is possible but where it ends up threating is very uncertain yet...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Local Mets here in South Fla mentioned this system. Told us to keep an eye on it.

[Vortex]

12Z ECM ensembles keep it south of jamaica...At H240 strong ridging to the north as well...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[Vortex]

18Z GFS heads N over haiti then gets trapped underneath the ridge just NE of the bahamas and heads back wsw....very interesting.....






http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[bvigal]

News flash! Nothing to worry about, it's going to turn south and hit the continent.

035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[expat2carib]

News flash! Nothing to worry about, it's going to turn south and hit the continent.

035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

I'm confused about this post. NHC TWO just went up to 50% and who's is saying what in your above post?

[bvigal]

News flash! Nothing to worry about, it's going to turn south and hit the continent.

035
WHXX04 KWBC 282342
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 7.7 50.7 280./18.0
6 6.2 52.2 227./21.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

I'm confused about this post. NHC TWO just went up to 50% and who's is saying what in your above post?

The reason the post is confusing, is because I DIDN'T POST IT HERE, someone moved it. It was a sarcastic addendum to a post I made in the 91 discussion.

To whomever moved it: I'm well aware there is a models thread. If I wanted it here, I would have posted it here. See the results? It's out of context.

[Florida1118]

I'm confused about this post. NHC TWO just went up to 50% and who's is saying what in your above post?

The reason the post is confusing, is because I DIDN'T POST IT HERE, someone moved it. It was a sarcastic addendum to a post I made in the 91 discussion.

To whomever moved it: I'm well aware there is a models thread. If I wanted it here, I would have posted it here. See the results? It's out of context.

Eh. I'm sure they had some reason to move it.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF continues to show a powerful hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

A change in direction from west at 280 to wnw at 285 degrees at 00z.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290109
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20101029 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101029  0000   101029  1200   101030  0000   101030  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.0N  52.1W    9.0N  55.7W   10.1N  58.9W   11.0N  61.7W
BAMD     8.0N  52.1W    8.6N  54.8W    9.3N  57.4W    9.8N  59.7W
BAMM     8.0N  52.1W    8.6N  55.0W    9.3N  57.6W    9.8N  59.9W
LBAR     8.0N  52.1W    9.3N  55.2W   10.7N  58.1W   11.6N  60.4W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          43KTS          53KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          43KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101031  0000   101101  0000   101102  0000   101103  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  64.2W   12.7N  68.8W   13.6N  72.5W   14.4N  74.5W
BAMD    10.3N  62.0W   11.8N  66.9W   13.5N  71.2W   15.0N  73.7W
BAMM    10.3N  62.1W   11.6N  66.5W   13.1N  70.4W   14.6N  72.8W
LBAR    13.3N  62.4W   15.8N  65.9W   17.2N  65.7W   17.2N  63.2W
SHIP        66KTS          83KTS          94KTS          99KTS
DSHP        63KTS          70KTS          81KTS          86KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.0N LONCUR =  52.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =   7.2N LONM12 =  48.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =   6.4N LONM24 =  44.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM