ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/NowItsMidnight/status/1431764768168333313

Disclaimer: this may or may not be true, but if the latter...how did this end up happening?

Which of course is where our barges full of gasoline come from for Western Florida. I sincerely hope for the crew's sake they get out and haul some arse out of there soon!

I wouldn't worry those ships move at 20kts. They will get out of there soon enough im sure

We don't need any environmental disasters on top of the nightmare of Ida's hit either.

[aspen]

I’m starting to get doubtful that Ida will make it to Category 4 intensity. Its current structure seems primed for an EWRC or just other competing bands to slow down intensification, with the exception of short bursts.

That does NOT mean it isn’t a huge threat. The very large radius of hurricane-force FL winds (and TS-H surface winds) in the NE quadrant means places on the east side of landfall, like New Orleans, are at risk for lots of storm surge. 7-11 feet is really bad. Hopefully the post-Katrina leeve improvements do their job well.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Kermit looks to have dropped back to 10,000 feet so I doubt they are headed back if they dropped to operational altitude.

[caneseddy]

Dave Bernard on Fox 8 just had a frustrated rant about the reconnaissance planes having to abort twice today which he says has been happening since last year and that it is not acceptable that with such a major storm heading towards land the planes are having to abort the missions

[robbielyn]

Agreed, the mute button is quite effective

I'm sorry this could be the most important piece of information, how do you mute people?

Add Foe in their profile should mute them

never knew i could do this. i’ve been here for 18 years!! thank you!! Ida sure worrisome for LA. I wish for everyone’s safety. be careful with generators. watch out for gators and venomous snakes and downed power lines and drive safe!!!

[PandaCitrus]

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1431719808668782597

[tolakram]

Everyone,

STAY ON TOPIC PLEASE. Thanks to all of those who reported posts, much appreciated!

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1431719808668782597

You can see the upper-level low spinning in the Western Gulf (25N, 95W) in this water vapor loop. Look for the counter-clockwise spin:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1431719808668782597

You can see the upper-level low spinning in the Western Gulf in this water vapor loop. Look for the counter-clockwise spin:

https://i.postimg.cc/NMRd2BG6/goes16-wv-mid-gom.gif

look at the towers on bands rising

I think this is gonna be rough tommorrow in terms of intensity

[ElectricStorm]

I’m starting to get doubtful that Ida will make it to Category 4 intensity. Its current structure seems primed for an EWRC or just other competing bands to slow down intensification, with the exception of short bursts.

That does NOT mean it isn’t a huge threat. The very large radius of hurricane-force FL winds (and TS-H surface winds) in the NE quadrant means places on the east side of landfall, like New Orleans, are at risk for lots of storm surge. 7-11 feet is really bad. Hopefully the post-Katrina leeve improvements do their job well.

I still think Cat 4 is still possible but it looks like my 130kt+ prediction from yesterday is going to bust pretty bad. Still looks to be pretty close to the NHC forecast but if it doesn't reach major status before the next advisory it's going to be falling behind a bit. That certainly doesn't change the fact it's going to be awful though and I'm definitely praying for everyone involved. Heck even if it landfalled at it's current intensity it would still be a nightmare.

I really hope I'm wrong and this doesn't get much stronger than it does now.

[tolakram]

Everything you read on the internet is true!

In the meantime, NOAA plane heading for another center pass.



 https://twitter.com/michaelmbell/status/1431767318493728772

[Highteeld]

Looks pretty ugly on satellite. that said, it's probably getting stronger still. this storm seems to have an inverse relationship with aesthetic appeal and observed intensity.

[Kohlecane]

https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1431719808668782597

Sorry images are easy loops I can never figure out lol
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined
ULWV the ULL over the W.GOM does not to be moving much at all IMO, and the Ridge over the SE doesn't seem incredibly strong ATM IMAO
With a potential RI incoming I can see why a potential E shift.
Also might have missed this in other posts but does the Poleward and horizontal rule just not as likely with this set up

Im gonna start doing my own tweets

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431774299346640901

[KimmieLa]

Near my home. These are all looking westbound.

Looks like some headed east and some west, I think I would head west, at least get on the easier side of the storm if you don't get far enough.

yeah, the traffic is definitely eastbound at the I-10 and I-12 split.

Thanks y'all. I should have said the heavy traffic is heading west. Some cameras are pointing east and some west.

[GeneratorPower]

I’m starting to get doubtful that Ida will make it to Category 4 intensity. Its current structure seems primed for an EWRC or just other competing bands to slow down intensification, with the exception of short bursts.

That does NOT mean it isn’t a huge threat. The very large radius of hurricane-force FL winds (and TS-H surface winds) in the NE quadrant means places on the east side of landfall, like New Orleans, are at risk for lots of storm surge. 7-11 feet is really bad. Hopefully the post-Katrina leeve improvements do their job well.

It’s on track for at least Cat 4 status.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I’m starting to get doubtful that Ida will make it to Category 4 intensity. Its current structure seems primed for an EWRC or just other competing bands to slow down intensification, with the exception of short bursts.

That does NOT mean it isn’t a huge threat. The very large radius of hurricane-force FL winds (and TS-H surface winds) in the NE quadrant means places on the east side of landfall, like New Orleans, are at risk for lots of storm surge. 7-11 feet is really bad. Hopefully the post-Katrina leeve improvements do their job well.

It’s on track for at least Cat 4 status.

Yes it is. People saying its not looking good, consider that its moving in favorable waters and an intensification cycle is currently underway

There are 30 hours between the eyewall and land, plenty of time to blow up

[Steve]

I went on the New Orleans subreddit…so many are staying

Everyones got Covid fatigue and like i was saying, most of the Katrina generation left the city ages ago so the tragedy is not really much more than a footnote in history. Most of the memories are in Houston Texas and Birgmi

Word. Were it not for my family having to evacuate, I might have ridden it out. Jason Kelly - wxman007 (RIP brother) sent me a PM during Katrina pleading me to get out when I was undecided. But as long as Ida only brings 1 or 2 conditions to the city, id do it. But any hogs East and levee failures can kiss my ass. Glad to be in Pensacola any time I can be since my house is here.

[floridasun78]

let hope wind dont higher and 130mph

[Category5Kaiju]

Idk, the way I see it it still looks quite healthy for an intensifying cyclone, and if it fails to achieve at least Cat 4 status then I would be very curious to know what factor caused this given the forecasts saw light shear, high RH, a path over the Loop Current, and all of these factors strongly suggest a powerful cyclone.