ATL: IKE Discussion

[shortwave]

Interesting to see the high forming a boomerang shape around Ike.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
Any ideas on how far it will slide west in tandem?

[Burn1]

Things are looking very good for S. FL......Business as usual this coming week......Lookout Texas

[chris_fit]

What a huge shift to the left today... wow

[CourierPR]

Max Mayfield just showed the new models which have shifted farther left. However, Ike seems to have not slipped more south. In fact, he seems to be almost due west of the last forecast point continuing to move more west. If this continues, will the models shift back? The jet flies into Ike tomorrow pm to sample the atmosphere around the storm. We should know more then.

[wxman57]

Here's a better comparison of just the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. No BAMs or NAMs to clutter it up:

Consensus models shifting south to northern Cuba from 18Z to 00Z

18Z plot:


New 00Z Plot:


I think the 03Z NHC track will be similar to the green/orange TCON/TVCN tracks that are touching one another southwest of the Keys.

[HURAKAN]

Things are looking very good for S. FL.

Absolutely ridiculous.

Just because the storm may pass to our south, and there is a big IF, it doesn't mean that it's business as usual. Many things could change and I'm still waiting for the models to get the information from the RECON.

Once again, members and guests, please follow the forecasts of the NHC and the NWS, and follow the orders of your local authorities.

[SapphireSea]

Do you notice that Upper Level High that is between Hanna and Ike? It or Ike stack on each other in the near future for some really amazing intensification? Could it have an impact on the track in the short and long term. There is also what seems to be a ULL or Trough in the E gulf. I don't know if the models take these features into play. Perhaps they are just illusions, but the UL High is definitely there.

[jinftl]

Isn't it more of a shift west than south....neither the old consenus or the new one ever dip below 22N....just tht time of the wnw movement starts further west....but when the wnw movement begins, ike is no further south with the update....just further west

Here's a better comparison of just the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. No BAMs or NAMs to clutter it up:

Consensus models shifting south to northern Cuba from 18Z to 00Z

18Z plot:


New 00Z Plot:

[SapphireSea]

I don't think there is any way that S. FL can get out of the NHC cone until Ike is at least 77W longitude.

[HURAKAN]

[Sabanic]

Still such a long way out, and so much can still change, but just yesterday morning several people scoffed at me when I mentioned that Dr. Bill Williams at The University of South Alabama said there was a good chance Ike would make it into the GOM and all residents along the GOM coast should watch him closely.

Just goes to show you how things can change so quickly, and that for all we know Ike could still end up going into the peninsula of FL. As someone mentioned if Ike were to make landfall along the Central or Western Gulf Coast it would be a week away. Looks like alot of us will be straining our eyeballs for several more evenings with Ike.

[Steve H.]

Well, it is tempting to agree with you, but with nour days out on the forecast track. a lot can change. Yes, all the reliable models are shifting west, but I will wait until Sunday before proclaiming Florida to be "out of the Woods."

[jinftl]

What happens if Ike straddles 23N instead of 22N as the consensus shows....but stilll begins the wnw movement where the new consensus shows it....78w or 79w....that 60 mile difference in latitude when a wnw heading starts would mean the difference between a key west landfall and the cuba one being shown.

forecasting a turning system is all about angles...if he moves at a heading of 285 instead if 275,,,that could mean a landfall point...in this case...in another country....the u.s.!!!

if the wnw turn commences at 77w...well that is a new scenario as well for mddle keys

Here's a better comparison of just the better consensus models, HWRF, and GFDL. No BAMs or NAMs to clutter it up:

Consensus models shifting south to northern Cuba from 18Z to 00Z

18Z plot:


New 00Z Plot:


I think the 03Z NHC track will be similar to the green/orange TCON/TVCN tracks that are touching one another southwest of the Keys.

[SapphireSea]

I still have a hard time buying this WSW motion till northern Cuba. Perhaps the ridge will build northward and break as Hanna moves away, or perhaps the broad trough in the mid-west can actually reshape or erode the ridge at some point, but I can agree with the current NHC track without changes.

[artist]

I don't think there is any way that S. FL can get out of the NHC cone until Ike is at least 77W longitude.

Ok. Perhaps by Sunday early morning. Wow, what a sigh of relief. Keep going South into Mexico.

what is the purpose of your post? Is it to make you feel better?

[srainhoutx]

I understand that its a very tricky forecast, however, why is there so much coverage on this when the storm will be 100 miles or so South of Key West. Evacuations blah blah blah. These types of knee jerk reactions cost people time and money. Track continues to shift left, WESt, and into the GOM. Come on now. SFL will be out of the "cone, as soon as tomorrow night. Thank G-d...

If they order evacuatiosn from a place without a lot of escape routes, like Monroe County, I'd definitely prefer safe to sorry.

The concern tonight is very grave in the Lower Keys I know for a fact. Our "old Conch" neighbors have been calling/e-mailing almost hourly as they pack up. These are hardy folk that usually take thing like this with a grain of salt.

[wxman57]

I still have a hard time buying this WSW motion till northern Cuba. Perhaps the ridge will build northward and break as Hanna moves away, or perhaps the broad trough in the mid-west can actually reshape or erode the ridge at some point, but I can agree with the current NHC track without changes.

Take a look at the latest WV loop. Ridge is building north of Ike now. Coming down fast.

[bahamaswx]

00z model consensus takes IKe perhaps ~90-100 miles south of here! Most of the Bahamas is sleeping a bit easier tonight.

[wxman57]

I don't think there is any way that S. FL can get out of the NHC cone until Ike is at least 77W longitude.

Right. Even if the NHC track shifts south to northern Cuba, the cone will still cover most of the peninsula.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't see anyone saying that the 18Z NOGAPS shifted way Right...