ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[knotimpaired]

My mistake.

[underthwx]

sgale-

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is it ok if i pick your brain?-how do see the models trending by-lets say-tomorrow morning?-im thinking more Westward

[Fyzn94]

all tracks within 20 miles of present location... florida florida florida.. lol

The cone of EXTREME uncertainty!

[Vortex]

Clearly martinique radar is showing a wsw movement of the center the last 2 hours..probablly part of the organization but nevertheless....

[Gustywind]

Interresting report from Dominica...

Finally Emily' -Booming Thunder and Crackling Lightning!
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/dominica.shtml

•By Edward Coipel <edward_coipel at hotmail.com>
•Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 00:18:13 +0000


Greetings to all!
I'm sending my report from the drenched capital city of Roseau after a series of thunderstorms moved over our island. The day started off fairly sunny but the promised moderate to heavy showers of what was to be 'Pre-Emily' did not take long to appear. By about 4p.m. there were impressive bands of low lying clouds which made a dramatic advance ahead of the thunderstorm cells that were to follow. From the satellite pics it looks like 'ground zero' for the core of the convective thunderstorm cells of Invest 91 passed right over our island- just south of the capital to be exact, probably in the village of Soufriere. I do hope that everyone there made it through fine.

This has been at best another good drill in the event of more serious weather related systems like a Hurricane -God forbid! During the worst of the weather it became dark enough to require putting on the lights at the Office -though with the frequent flashes of lightning during the pouring rain there was a generous amount of 'light to see' by. Invest 91 certainly does not lack in thunderstorm activity...Beware! Amazingly the power held throughout the worst of it, which lasted a couple of hours at most, and apart from a few flicks there were no surges either in the current. Compliments to the electricity company -Domlec!
However, throughout the capital there was minor-moderate street flooding, but this has since subsided as the rains have mostly tapered off though at present a light shower is now falling. Thankfully there were no strong wind gusts with these intense lines of thunderstorms/ thundershowers in Roseau, however, other parts of the island might be able to report differently.

*UPDATE - AS OF 7:30P.M. Tropical storm Emily has formed since the well defined circulation center finally formed near Dominica. We are MOST THANKFUL TO GOD for this LATE FORMATION OF EMILY since it meant we got the most weak 'version' of the storm so to speak. We may get some more moderate -heavy rain later but as for now its light rain in the south with no strong winds...no one is complaining! Most likely it may get a bit gusty later tonight but for now Emily has been a most proper Lady. May she be ever so gentle to all in her future path...
Let us all keep safe and sound during this Hurricane season!

Also, My prayers and sympathies go out at this time of tragic loss to the family and friends of Joe Costello who was allegedly attacked on his business premises in the north of the island. May the Good Lord Jesus supply every Grace, Blessing and Peace in this moment of pain, and deep loss.

May God Bless us all and Bless and protect our Lovely Nature Isle -Dominica.

[Bocadude85]

The NHC follows the TVCN closely right? Because it is definately SW of the current NHC track not by much but still sw

[Aric Dunn]

I can say this ... she is probably going to be moving west at a good clip till at least tomorrow afternoon.. the 500mb ridge is directly to its north. So depending on how fast that weakens and slides will depends on how far west she goes.. right now I would put money on her going south of the NHC track maintaining more west motion for longer.

[knotimpaired]

So do you think this is a Mona Passage track?

[Aric Dunn]

Clearly martinique radar is showing a wsw movement of the center the last 2 hours..probablly part of the organization but nevertheless....

exactly..

[Hurricaneman]

Clearly martinique radar is showing a wsw movement of the center the last 2 hours..probablly part of the organization but nevertheless....

that means that all models have the current direction wrong

[shaggy]

Did the new data get into the 00z bam's ?

Ummm not sure what I am seeing here but this says they canceled the g-IV flight?

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A G-IV MISSION FOR 04/0000Z

3. REMARK: G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z CANCELED AT 01/1400Z.

[Gustywind]

[knotimpaired]

Clearly martinique radar is showing a wsw movement of the center the last 2 hours..probablly part of the organization but nevertheless....

that means that all models have the current direction wrong

Please explain in laymens terms. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

So do you think this is a Mona Passage track?

If it continues west like it is doing now no.

[Hurricane Jed]

Anyone else think Emily passing over Hispaniola and then becoming a hurricane shortly before landfall is a little too optimistic? Provided it adheres closely to the predicted track that is.

[Hurricaneman]

So do you think this is a Mona Passage track?

If it continues west like it is doing now no.

It might go through the passage between Hispaniola and Cuba for all we know

[Aric Dunn]

actually seems to me the ridging just build back in over the last 24 hours.. maybe that explains the rapid west motion all of a sudden.. maybe models are off on the initial strength of the ridging


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 2java.html

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Purchased 3 more cases of water today and am about to take the laundry out of the machines downstairs. Just making sure all is prepped in the event of any extended periods with no electricity.
I learned that lesson years ago in NC when Fran left me with no electricity or water (electric pump) for 28 days!
Plus, as soon as this area gets into a cone, the stores go nutso crazy!
plus, Winn Dixie has cases of water 3 for $10 right now too in FL as a coincidence.

[SouthFLTropics]

So do you think this is a Mona Passage track?

If it continues west like it is doing now no.

It might go through the passage between Hispaniola and Cuba for all we know

I've been thinking that might be very likely...In fact that was my forecast earlier today. After that an impact to the tip of FLA, traversing North across Lake O and exiting around Daytona Beach.

[knotimpaired]

So do you think this is a Mona Passage track?

If it continues west like it is doing now no.

Luis, I am totally confused about Emily. You have always watched our backs as well as Culebra's. You see one model, then another, we glue our lives to this sight.

Is there ever a life after hurricane seasone,

Maybe that is when we hibernate and try to get lost from out computers..... Personally I like the Cloud Forest.