ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Tropical Storm LORENZO
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 24, 2019:

Location: 11.8°N 27.3°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

[StruThiO]

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved
bands and a newly formed central dense overcast. In fact, an
overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a
very small central core. The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt,
in accordance with the latest TAFB classification.

Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that
the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and
weak/moderate shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is
giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the
next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight
inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt
during the previous 24 hours. Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick
strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance. It is
worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a
fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the
new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general
course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves
beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A break in the
ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward
over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward
in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction
thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 12.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[northjaxpro]

Lorenzo is going to be one heck of a very large and powerful tropical cyclone when it is all said and done. Its moisture envelope seemingly takes up much of the Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic. A great and very impressive satellite presentation! Ideal conditions for Lorenzo. He definitely looks to join his monster brothers, Dorian and Humberto, as amongst the most powerful and best looking tropical cyclones we have seen in the North Atlantic basin in quite some time!

[Kazmit]

If this doesn't become a cat 4 I'll eat my hat.

[northjaxpro]

If this doesn't become a cat 4 I'll eat my hat.

I think it could have a shot to attain a Cat 5.

[NDG]

A true C.V. storm, impressive structure!

[NDG]

If this doesn't become a cat 4 I'll eat my hat.

I think it could have a shot to attain a Cat 5.

Cat 5 would be very unusual that far east in the Atlantic, not saying it does not have the possibility, but very low chances, IMO.

[somethingfunny]

I can't recall the Atlantic ever having a Category 5 storm based off of satellite intensity alone. Recon has always been involved (and recon only investigates storms that threaten land)

Aside from that anthropogenic reasoning, I also think that Lorenzo is likely to be a very large circulation and perhaps have more struggles with dry air than most people are expecting it to. I still think a really sweet Category Four peak is likely but I don't think we're going to see anything record-breaking out here.

[cycloneye]

TXNT26 KNES 241204
TCSNTL

A. 13L (LORENZO)

B. 24/1140Z

C. 12.3N

D. 28.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET OF 4.0 IS BASED
ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON
PT BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE CENTRAL FEATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Emmett_Brown]

Now this is a text book Cape Verde storm, just like the old days! Interesting bend to the left on some of the Euro ensembles late in the period. Not saying it won't recurve, but it might not turn N and NE as soon as the shows.

[1900hurricane]

I can't recall the Atlantic ever having a Category 5 storm based off of satellite intensity alone. Recon has always been involved (and recon only investigates storms that threaten land)

Aside from that anthropogenic reasoning, I also think that Lorenzo is likely to be a very large circulation and perhaps have more struggles with dry air than most people are expecting it to. I still think a really sweet Category Four peak is likely but I don't think we're going to see anything record-breaking out here.

The only one I can think of is Isabel '03's first stint at category 5.

[Frank2]

Now this is a text book Cape Verde storm, just like the old days! Interesting bend to the left on some of the Euro ensembles late in the period. Not saying it won't recurve, but it might not turn N and NE as soon as the shows.

Yes, it reminds me of Allen and Frances both of the 1980 season - a classic hurricane...

[tolakram]

live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=19555.5126953125&y=8511.2880859375

[plasticup]

live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=19555.5126953125&y=8511.2880859375

She is going to be a beauty

[wx98]

Having some trouble with shear now, which has halted intensification. NHC still calls for a hurricane by tomorrow and a Cat 3 by Friday.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60 kts.

AL, 13, 2019092500, , BEST, 0, 130N, 317W, 60, 993, TS

[1900hurricane]

Looks like some core building going on now based on the intense central convection.

[northjaxpro]

Lorenzo is building his CDO now quite nicely this evening. He will be a hurricane very soon, probably by early afterrnoon tomorrow, or possibly sooner than that. What a textbook looking CV storm. He will.be one of the best satellite presentation storms you will see as time progresses.

[TallyTracker]

It’s not impossible Lorenzo might be upgraded to hurricane within the hour with the increasing CDO organization in the past couple of hours.