ATL: IRMA - Models

[bella_may]

Looks like mobile is in the clear

[NDG]

00z runs tonight with Gonzo/balloon data are going to be important...still at the D5-D7 range, so nothing is set in stone.

18z GFS has the 18z ballon data.

[blp]

So is that actual pressure or do we need to round up like on the Hmon?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is going to be a slow track north with that mid level ridging over the Great Lakes.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/2RPMcs7.png[img]

Maybe in line for some historic flooding then.

Please no...please...

[AxaltaRacing24]

[ronjon]

Unbelievable...all the way up the center of the state...948 mb in Orlando at 156 hrs!!

[M3gaMatch]

Up the spine again because that trough to NE has already exited and replaced by Canadian ridge. That's where I see the big difference still between the GFS and the Euro.

[lando]

If this run verified to a tee, 3 of the most populated counties in Florida would be almost destroyed, specifically by the western side of the eye wall, and a lot of the population of the immediate areas are lower income around the lake and unfortunately loss of life may be record breaking; god forbid the dyke failed...

[MetroMike]

Do not like the consistency with this model.

[Aric Dunn]

and there it is .. now that low deepens ad drops sw shoving IRMA N .. soon NNW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=375

[stormreader]

Last run, there was only a little east component left after the turn, then a relatively quick push back into Ga coast. Interesting to see if there is any east component at all over Fl in this run. Building high pressure over northern US, maybe not. Could watch for some west shifts in modeling as the storm nears the keys over the next couple of days. 5-6 days away??? Not set in stone.

[lando]

There may be a cause to be legitimately concerned about the lake okeechobee dykes... if you thought Katrina was bad this would be much worse

[NDG]

Is going to be a slow track north with that mid level ridging over the Great Lakes.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/2RPMcs7.png[img]

Maybe in line for some historic flooding then.

Not as slow as I thought, at around 10 mph.

[stormreader]

and there it is .. now that low deepens ad drops sw shoving IRMA N .. soon NNW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=375

So Aric, is that low looking a little more substantial to you now, or do you still have some skepticism?

[Blown Away]

You talk about an evacuation problem...

[HDGator]

The entire Florida Peninsula hit with hurricane (64kt) + winds.

This would be CATASTROPHIC!

Someone used the term earlier "A Generational Storm".
I'd like to stop this ride and get off. PLEASE!

[CronkPSU]

ummmm so Andrew/Katrina into Miami and then Cat 4 in Orlando and the Cape and headed towards Jax (and looks like Tampa/St Pete would be dealing with a Cat 1 or 2)...this is like SciFi movie bad scenario

[FixySLN]

I have a hard time buying that NW drive after the Southern Florida landfall. Wouldn't it be more likely that it run back up North through east coast looking for some more energy? Especially taking the cold air into consideration...Nags Head/Va Beach braces for whatever is left of her.

*Disclaimer*

I'm no Met...I don't even like making "predictions". I sometimes post my thoughts for others to see and am in NO way a voice of experience or professionalism.

[ronjon]

Headed to the Smokey Mtns at 180 hrs.

[SFLcane]

If 00z cycle with ballon info remains Iam going into full prep mode.