ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I'm really curious to see what kind of weather we get here in the bay area. very close shave with TS conditions. Perhaps Dennis 05 would be a good analog.

Yeah I am still curious why no TS warnings for Pinellas and Hillsborough because it certainly looks like TS conditions are quite likely with these bands and based on the special weather statements I see coming out from Ruskin.

[BRweather]

160330 2637N 08355W 8430 01558 0101 +156 +156 181072 073 045 011 00
160400 2639N 08355W 8420 01569 0098 +155 //// 179073 074 048 005 01
160430 2641N 08355W 8430 01560 0093 +160 +160 181071 073 046 005 00
160500 2644N 08354W 8429 01562 0097 +155 +153 185074 075 050 007 00
160530 2646N 08354W 8425 01562 0105 +156 +156 184074 074 051 008 03

75 AT FLIGHT LEVEL

[NJWxHurricane]

Really being conservative with the watches and warnings. This concerns me as Hermine gets closer to Jersey. It's packed with tourists where I am and I know they don't want to scare the business revenue away but this area is not ready for the smallest storm surge....

Agreed, just made a post similar to this before.

[Yellow Evan]

SFMR/FL ratio seems really large.

[Happy Pelican]

Really hope the Jersey Shore/Mid-Atlantic even knows what's going on.. the attention currently is directed at the gulf/florida right now. What happens afterwards still needs to be watched.

Watching like a hawk. My Sandy PTSD is in overdrive right now. Concerned they may wait too long to issue watches/warnings here in fear of losing holiday revenue. I've already heard rumors of possible voluntary Evacs in certain areas.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011605
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 18 20160901
155600 2605N 08350W 8435 01572 0100 +176 +141 188059 060 044 003 00
155630 2607N 08351W 8428 01579 0100 +177 +133 189059 060 044 003 00
155700 2609N 08351W 8433 01572 0099 +178 +129 188059 060 044 003 00
155730 2611N 08351W 8429 01574 0097 +175 +142 186059 060 045 003 00
155800 2613N 08352W 8429 01575 0100 +171 +147 186061 061 043 005 00
155830 2615N 08352W 8432 01568 0099 +167 +152 185060 061 046 004 00
155900 2618N 08353W 8426 01572 0095 +173 +140 184060 061 046 004 00
155930 2620N 08353W 8432 01565 0093 +174 +137 185062 063 045 005 00
160000 2622N 08354W 8431 01564 0092 +171 +149 189063 064 045 004 00
160030 2624N 08354W 8429 01569 0089 +176 +140 191067 068 046 004 00
160100 2626N 08354W 8430 01562 0089 +171 +152 189068 068 047 005 00
160130 2628N 08355W 8429 01565 0089 +167 +166 188066 068 048 006 00
160200 2630N 08355W 8430 01563 0095 +165 //// 187063 065 046 006 05
160230 2633N 08356W 8429 01566 0095 +166 //// 188067 067 045 007 05
160300 2635N 08355W 8430 01561 0094 +167 //// 186068 069 047 005 01
160330 2637N 08355W 8430 01558 0101 +156 +156 181072 073 045 011 00
160400 2639N 08355W 8420 01569 0098 +155 //// 179073 074 048 005 01
160430 2641N 08355W 8430 01560 0093 +160 +160 181071 073 046 005 00
160500 2644N 08354W 8429 01562 0097 +155 +153 185074 075 050 007 00
160530 2646N 08354W 8425 01562 0105 +156 +156 184074 074 051 008 03
$$
;

75 kt FL, 50 kt SFMR in NE quad.

[BRweather]

recon likely approaching highest winds

[NJWxHurricane]

Really hope the Jersey Shore/Mid-Atlantic even knows what's going on.. the attention currently is directed at the gulf/florida right now. What happens afterwards still needs to be watched.

Watching like a hawk. My Sandy PTSD is in overdrive right now. Concerned they may wait too long to issue watches/warnings here in fear of losing holiday revenue. I've already heard rumors of possible voluntary Evacs in certain areas.

What is your location on the Jersey Shore? I'm currently in Seaside Heights... no one is even aware at this point.

[otterlyspicey]

I live in DC and am hoping Hermine's forward movement slows by about 6-12 hours total by the time it reaches the mid-atlantic. That way after my obligations on Saturday during the day, I can race to the Jersey Shore and have some fun. Probably no chance of this happening though Lol

Regardless though, I am hoping this does not cause any damage in ANY way minus some leaves and limbs down and slight ponding of water. I just like the thrill of the chase, not the damage.

[Hurricane Andrew]

75kt FLs and 55kt SFMRs well away from the center...a landfall at high tide...I seriously expect to see ten foot surge somewhere. Amazing, this system became very dangerous, very quickly.

[jlauderdal]

Really hope the Jersey Shore/Mid-Atlantic even knows what's going on.. the attention currently is directed at the gulf/florida right now. What happens afterwards still needs to be watched.

Watching like a hawk. My Sandy PTSD is in overdrive right now. Concerned they may wait too long to issue watches/warnings here in fear of losing holiday revenue. I've already heard rumors of possible voluntary Evacs in certain areas.

nhc isnt basing their forecasting on someone losing revenue...local govts might do that but not nhc

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like some dry air has been wrapped around into the core there from the west of the Storm.

[gatorcane]

Navy SAT imagery is always good to look at when something is in the Gulf, check it out:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[caneman]

People act like this cat 5y hurricane clam down god lol

Don't be an azz clown. They're expecting 8 foot storm surge in the most storm,surge prone area. Water kills not wind.

[Aric Dunn]

lots of low to mid 70kt FL winds well away from the center. would imagine closer to the center in the "eyewall" it should be even higher..

[NDG]

Wow, 75 flight level winds, approximately 100 miles east of the coc!!!!

160500 2644N 08354W 8429 01562 0097 +155 +153 185074 075 050 007 00

[TPAcane]

First, I would like to send my prayers and best wishes for those in the Panhandle to stay safe in the storm, and remember safety is just as big a concern during clean up as during the storm itself. I do not envy the loss of A/C in September and emptying out the fridge into the garbage pail. Been there, done that.
Second, thanks to the PRO METS for their knowledge and insight, and voice of reason. We are weather junkies, and can be quite passionate about weather.
Lastly, just wanted to add my insight into something I have noticed since my last brush with the tropics in 2004. Even though I am in Pasco and was initially under a Hurricane Watch, and now a TS Warning...panic there was not. It seems everyone with their smart phones, being constantly connected to social media, and countless FB live broadcasts from our local METS during the past week, have become more informed real time. The average lay person (not a wx junkie) has access to quick flowing information in which to form their judgement and plan of action to the event. And if something changed quickly, they would be just as quickly aware. That is a blessing...most times we are too connected, too over saturated with info, except in cases like this where things can change on a dime. I asked both Home Depot and Lowes if they noticed any storm prep uptick...and nothing. Plenty of bread, milk, water at Publix. In my experience...so much different than 2004 when hit by tropical storm force winds by Frances and Jeanne. Today, with the storm now just about west of the Tampa area, no panic or over reaction still in Pasco. Talking with folks, they just seem aware and are just monitoring. Modern technology really is something else.
Oh...and BTW...with this storm being so ...ummm....entertaining over the last 10 days...I will now be making my first donation to S2K...how could I not? Thanks to all!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Eyewall now 75% complete, may be fully wrapped by next VORTEX.

Speaking of which, my guess for the next vortex is 987mb/65kt SFMR.

[Happy Pelican]

Really hope the Jersey Shore/Mid-Atlantic even knows what's going on.. the attention currently is directed at the gulf/florida right now. What happens afterwards still needs to be watched.

Watching like a hawk. My Sandy PTSD is in overdrive right now. Concerned they may wait too long to issue watches/warnings here in fear of losing holiday revenue. I've already heard rumors of possible voluntary Evacs in certain areas.

What is your location on the Jersey Shore? I'm currently in Seaside Heights... no one is even aware at this point.

Pelican Island I could probably throw a rock and hit you My nephew is a State Troop and they are def aware.

[Evil Jeremy]

The large amount of winds to the SE of the LLC gives me concern in Jacksonville. That SE quad should be smacking us head on this time tomorrow.