WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LOLA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.4S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.3S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 58.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 25S IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, A PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUIDLING IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM WILL INFLUENCE STORM MOTION, INDUCING AN EQUATOR-
WARD COMPONENT IN THE STORM TRACK. OVERALL STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN
SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE WEAKENED STEERING FLOW.
TC 25S HAS INTENSIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER
THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVOR-
ABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL
FLOW OF AN UPPER-LEVEL, MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220328Z TRMM PASS SHOW THAT THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC HAS BECOME PARTIALLY-EXPOSED IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SHEAR. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN RESPONSE
TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE
CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL CONSENSUSES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
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