ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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gatorcane
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#4581 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:16 pm

I have to say its truly amazing how far north the convection has gone...

Some of the outer high-level cloud bands are encroaching on the Lower FL Keys and SW Florida believe it or not.

Reminds me of Ernesto. The ULL kept blowing the convection more an more North and centers kept forming more and more north.
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Re: Re:

#4582 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:17 pm

stevetampa33614 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:that's not an eye

however, it was a very cold cloud top. The black on that scale is <-80C


Ya I know its a sign of pretty rapid strengthen and that leads to an eye :P


I have a smudge mark on my monitor from where I tried to smash your avatar, you know.

I'm not sure whether it's worth suing you over... :D
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4583 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:18 pm

You could be seeing an optical illusion caused by the ULL deforming the storm in the NE direction.
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Derek Ortt

Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4584 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:18 pm

Jagno wrote:
freport_texas21 wrote:hi guys im new here..i live n freeport texas..should i worry about this or not? all the talk is around mexico..im just curious..thank ya kindly! :D



YES, please keep a close watch on Dolly and do listen to the professional mets here. Look on the left side of each poster and it will indicate pro met or not. There are some very knowledgeable amatures here as well. Be prepared for the worst and pray for the best every hurricane season from start to finish.


Best to head to the tropical analysis forum for the most reliable information
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4585 Postby Innotech » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:19 pm

I do notice a very faint feature that might be the weak LLC relocating northward very quickly. If you look right around where Recon last positioned the LLC, you can see the convection in that area suddenly evaporate and seem to spiral upwards and the whole storm seems to wobble to compensate. Anyone see that on IR? It could just be an illusion but its something to note.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4586 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:19 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#4587 Postby Jagno » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:20 pm

Cape Verde wrote:
stevetampa33614 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:that's not an eye

however, it was a very cold cloud top. The black on that scale is <-80C


Ya I know its a sign of pretty rapid strengthen and that leads to an eye :P


I have a smudge mark on my monitor from where I tried to smash your avatar, you know.

I'm not sure whether it's worth suing you over... :D

I did the same thing earlier. LOL..............Still feel totally stupid.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4588 Postby Honeyko » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:21 pm

If the convective core misses the Yucatan, and doesn't otherwise weaken overnight (why should it?) I say there's a 50% chance of a Wilma-style needle-prick eye on morning visibles that catches everyone by surprise.
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Re:

#4589 Postby Praxus » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:22 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:this thing is shooting the channel. Forget trying to forecast, its time to nowcast. The models missed this.


Certainly looks like that has a good chance of happening. Bad news for gulf coasters somewhere.
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Re:

#4590 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:22 pm

I do not think this shoots the channel. Keep in mind that it does not have that much room to track north nor do I think the NHC would miss it that much. But it could traverse the flat part of the Yucatan in less than a day and that would not be good. The track per that last graphic I posted is a little north but I remember the pros here warning that these storms will fluctuate greatly until totally developed into a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4591 Postby boca » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm

I know you can't go by IR but I think Louisiana needs to pay attention too.
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Re:

#4592 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:this thing is shooting the channel. Forget trying to forecast, its time to nowcast. The models missed this.


Like many have said, the models are not good with LLC relocations.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4593 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm

Honeyko wrote:If the convective core misses the Yucatan, and doesn't otherwise weaken overnight (why should it?) I say there's a 50% chance of a Wilma-style needle-prick eye on morning visibles that catches everyone by surprise.

eh, the dynamic environment doesn't really support a pinhole eye attm.
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Re: Re:

#4594 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm

Praxus wrote:
hurricanelandfall wrote:this thing is shooting the channel. Forget trying to forecast, its time to nowcast. The models missed this.


Certainly looks like that has a good chance of happening. Bad news for gulf coasters somewhere.


No they didn't the GFDL showed this possibility yesterday. A 12 hour N movement through the NW Caribbean and then a bend WNW.

Either way should be moving between NW and WNW just like the NHC stated in their last discussion.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#4595 Postby americanrebel » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:this thing is shooting the channel. Forget trying to forecast, its time to nowcast. The models missed this.



I hope we are all wrong, but looks like Dolly will become a monster in just a little bit, whenever she goes straight in between Cuban and the Yucatan, which many of us have predicted since last night.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4596 Postby Windtalker1 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:24 pm

I agree 100% with Boca that LA has to watch this also
Last edited by Windtalker1 on Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4597 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:24 pm

If the convective core misses the Yucatan, and doesn't otherwise weaken overnight (why should it?) I say there's a 50% chance of a Wilma-style needle-prick eye on morning visibles that catches everyone by surprise.


The storm has been loose and badly formed so far, so a pin eye is the exact opposite of what this system has been showing. More likely a straight hurricane if it ever gets favorable conditions.
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#4598 Postby mattpetre » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:25 pm

I am not a big advocate of the "sky is falling" but I would not want to be caught without gas, food, or water this week anywhere along the TX coast. I am maintaining my unproffesional prediction that this will be a Cat 3 at landfall. By tomorrow afternoon, things will get ugly in Houston and it will not be because of direct effects of the storm.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Western Caribbean

#4599 Postby mattpetre » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:27 pm

Sanibel wrote:
If the convective core misses the Yucatan, and doesn't otherwise weaken overnight (why should it?) I say there's a 50% chance of a Wilma-style needle-prick eye on morning visibles that catches everyone by surprise.


The storm has been loose and badly formed so far, so a pin eye is the exact opposite of what this system has been showing. More likely a straight hurricane if it ever gets favorable conditions.


It's only been badly formed because it did not have great conditions for either circulation or convection. Now it has both, so no reason to not believe it can't form an eye rather quickly. I would tend to agree... eye by mid morning Monday.
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Re:

#4600 Postby Viper54r » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:27 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:this thing is shooting the channel. Forget trying to forecast, its time to nowcast. The models missed this.

"This is going to hit Yucatan...listen to the professionals"
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