WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

cycloneye · **Posted:** Fri Nov 20, 2009 7:19 pm

I think of the disturbances located in the monsoon trough now,this one and 93W have the best chance to develop into a tropical cyclone.

oaba09 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 1:45 am

What's with the sudden burst of invests in the WPAC?

oaba09 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 1:53 am

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:29 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 211100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 5.8N 148.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 148.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 146.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210851Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 202315Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS THE LLCC AS WELL AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 20-KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO HAVE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CONSOLIDATE
UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED ABOUT 25 DEGREES NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT ORGANIZATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.

JTE50 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:31 am

Been watching this area for days now. I'm not surprised it's developing.

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:33 am

NWS Guam discussion of 94W

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/public.php

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AM SOUNDING SHOWED MARKED LOW-LEVEL DRYING...WITH A PWAT OF 1.21
INCHES. JTWC INVEST AREA 94W IS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR
4N147E AND CONTINUES TO SPIN UP. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO 94W. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GFS INITIAL 200 MB WIND AND DIVERGENCE
FIELDS SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER 94W. NORTHERNMOST
SPIRAL BAND FROM 94W COMES TO WITHIN 250 MILES OF GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. 94W INVEST DOES APPEAR TO BE THE
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM AND MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING 94W INTO A TC...THEN STEER IT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
THE FORECAST ZONES. INHERITED FORECAST BRINGS 94W THROUGH DURING THE
WED NITE/THU AM TIME FRAME. TIMING OF SCATTERED POPS FOR WED AND
THU STILL LOOKS GOOD. WILL MAINTAIN THEME OF BROAD BRUSHING THE WIND
FIELDS UNTIL THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF 94W BECOMES CLEARER.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ADDITIONAL TC DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO NAIL ANYTHING DOWN ON SUCH A FORECAST SCENARIO. AN
SPSPQ WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED FOR 94W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
12.5 KM QUIKSCAT SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES RIGHT
AT THE 22 KT THRESHOLD. OBS FROM HANDARS AND METARS HAVE NOT BEEN AS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS HIGH THAT WINDS WILL
FRESHEN IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE
MARIANAS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS STILL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS
REACH OR EXCEED 10 FEET. HOWEVER...TRADE SURGE LOOKS JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURF TO PEAK JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
EAST FACING REEFS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. NEVERTHELESS...WILL
NEED TO WATCH IPAN BUOY CLOSELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH IS PERSISTING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH TWO
SMALL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED NEAR KWAJALEIN AND NORTHEAST OF MAJURO.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE KOSRAE IS FARTHER
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WEAKER CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
SHOWER COVERAGE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO
CIRCULATIONS...MAJURO IS WITHIN THE DISSOLVED TAIL OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS FROM CONVECTION
NEAR KWAJALEIN.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W NEAR CHUUK WILL PLAY
A MAJOR ROLE ON THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA. IF IT DEVELOPS
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS MOST MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED...IT WILL
DISRUPT THE MONSOON TROUGH AND CREATE A SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW TOWARD
THE CYCLONE ITSELF. IT CAN SEND A MODERATE SOUTHWEST SWELL INTO
POHNPEI. HOWEVER THIS CAN ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY FAIR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BEFORE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SETS IN AROUND
MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK WILL LIKELY KEEP
INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER CHUUK STATE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK....CONVERGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF 94W ARE ANTICIPATED TO PROLONG
WETNESS OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE STATUS OF 94W...A SOUTHWEST
SWELL MIGHT CREATE HIGH SURF SCENARIO ALONG SOUTH AND WEST SHORES AS
WELL. BY MIDWEEK...94W WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE STATE SO
THAT DECREASING CONVERGENCE SHOULD BRING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY PALAU
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.
DRIER NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE GOING TO
PREVENT THESE SHOWERS FROM SPREADING OVER YAP FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTERWARD...AFOREMENTIONED 94W WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE MONSOON
TROUGH NORTHWARD TOWARD YAP WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. STRONG
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD STEER 94W NORTHWESTWARD
PASSING BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM AROUND MIDWEEK. SINCE IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FUTURE TRACK OF 94W AT THIS POINT...HAVE ONLY
INTRODUCED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER WINDS IN THE FORECAST. RESIDENTS IN
BOTH YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU NEED TO MONITOR 94W CLOSELY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER MIDWEEK...BOTH 94W AND THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS BUT WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS AROUND. NOW THRU SUNDAY EVENING...
THE COMBINATION OF TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL KEEP SEA
HEIGHTS AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET. ON MONDAY...94W CAN BEGIN TO INCREASE
NORTHEAST SWELLS AND DEVELOP A HIGH SURF EVENT ALONG NORTH SHORES OF
PALAU AND YAP.

JTE50 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 8:24 am

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/SPSPQ

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 211219 CCA
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1019 PM CHST SAT NOV 21 2009

PMZ171-172-220100-
YAP-CHUUK-
1019 PM CHST SAT NOV 21 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FORMING WEST OF CHUUK...

CORRECTED TO ADD YAP STATE FOR SATAWAL ISLAND AND TO REMOVE A
REFERENCE TO TROPICAL STORM 22W

AT 1200Z...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS FORMING NEAR 6N149E WHICH IS
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK...75 MILES SOUTH OF PULUWAT
AND 590 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. IT IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE BULLETIN TCMWP1 UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPN21 PGTW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHUUK AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE AND
FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE AND NEARBY ISLANDS THRU MONDAY. WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED.

RESIDENTS OF YAP AND CHUUK STATE ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST STATUS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
FOR ANY CHANGES AND UPDATE THIS STATEMENT IF NECESSARY.

$$

STANKO/LEE

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:39 am

Slowly consolidating.

JTE50 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:59 am

the last hour and a half shows more spiral look in this color IR:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 11:44 am

21/1432 UTC 7.2N 149.9E T1.5/1.5 94W -- West Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 3:40 pm

Jim,this time it looks like you will chase in your neck of the woods and not catch a plane to the Phillippines.

Special Statement for Mariana islands

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
510 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-220700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
510 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM NEAR 6N148E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR GUAM DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE. TROPICAL DISTURBANCES CAN INTENSIFY QUICKLY THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:37 pm

JMA upgrades low pressure to Tropical Depression

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 4:48 pm

Very impressive system

Derek Ortt · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 6:31 pm

I'd say that looks impressive. May be a RI candidate

Crostorm · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:14 pm

JTE50 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:52 pm

[quote="cycloneye"]Jim,this time it looks like you will chase in your neck of the woods and not catch a plane to the Phillippines.

That would be nice.

Cirrus outflow from the developing storm is already blanketing Guam. Definitely a change in the weather from normal around here. Nothing yet in the Pacific Daily News about the storm - maybe later today. Euro model was pretty good predicting these two depressions - one near southern philippines and TD94.

HURAKAN · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 8:02 pm

Looking good

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:37 pm

We have Tropical Depression 26W now as NRL is showing at 6.4N-148.8W.The text of the first JTWC warning will be out shortly.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

JTE50 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:

We have Tropical Depression 26W now as NRL is showing at 6.4N-148.8W.The text of the first JTWC warning will be out shortly.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

cycloneye: do you see a forecast track by JTWC anywhere?

cycloneye · **Posted:** Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:52 pm

JTE50 wrote:

cycloneye wrote:

We have Tropical Depression 26W now as NRL is showing at 6.4N-148.8W.The text of the first JTWC warning will be out shortly.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

cycloneye: do you see a forecast track by JTWC anywhere?

Text and track from JTWC should be out soon.I noticed that NRL made the change to TD 26 after 200Z not a normal time to do that so I guess the text is also somewhat delayed.

WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

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