SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

#41 Postby Sheronz » Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:09 pm

Image
WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 166.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 166.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.6S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.6S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.8S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 23.5S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 166.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND A 111748Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KTS
FROM PGTW AND ABRF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
AS A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OBSCURING THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT
SUPPORTING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 15P
IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, TC 15P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, IT
APPEARS THAT TC RENE WILL REMAIN ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AS THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. ALSO IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC RENE WILL START TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE AUSTRALIAN SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY EASTWARD INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:56 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0207 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [985HPA] [CAT 2] NEAR 13.3S 166.3W AT
120000 UTC NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

TOPS WARMED PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. SHEAR EVIDENT. OUTFLOW IMPROVING ALL
QUADRANTS. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND LLCC AS
CYCLONE TURNING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A STRONGLY
DIVERGENT REGION. SYSTEM NOW CAUGHT IN A NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK
BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.5 PT=3.5 MET=3.5,
THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.1S 167.2W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 15.0S 168.7W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 15.7S 170.6W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 16.4S 172.5W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 120830 UTC.

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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

#43 Postby Crostorm » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:27 am

Image

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0817 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [980HPA] [CAT 2] NEAR 13.5S 166.7W AT
120600 UTC NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 06 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

TOPS COOLED IN PAST 3 HOURS. PULSATING CONVECTION OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION ALOFT.
SYSTEM STERRED BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW DUE TO STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.5 PT=3.5 MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST
AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST
TRACK INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.4S 168.0W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 15.0S 168.7W MOV WSW AT 09KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 16.3S 171.5W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 17.7S 173.1W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 121430 UTC.

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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 8:47 am

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#45 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 9:57 am

Image

WTPS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 167.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 167.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.5S 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.6S 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.7S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.8S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.4S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.6S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 167.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE
LAST SIX HOURS, WITH BANDING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
AROUND THE LLCC. THE LLCC STILL REMAINS HIDDEN BY THE LARGE CONVEC-
TIVE MASS OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER, BY TRACKING FEATURES OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, IT APPEARS TC 15P HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH-
WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KNOTS
BASED ON THE MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS OBSERVED IN THE CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LESS FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS START TO WEAKEN RENE. THE MAJOR
STEERING INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN THE STR THROUGH TAU 120, HOWEVER,
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS TC 15P TAKING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK
BEYOND TAU 72 THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
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Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

#46 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:03 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 FEB 2010 Time : 135200 UTC
Lat : 13:49:35 S Lon : 167:35:41 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.1mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Center Temp : -84.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#47 Postby Alacane2 » Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:19 am

WTZS81 NSTU 121359
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-121700-

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
300 AM SST FRI FEB 12 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7 SOUTH 167.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AND ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PAGO PAGO AT 12 AM LOCAL TIME FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST 8 MPH. IF RENE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THIS TRACK...THEN IT WILL BE AT 14.1 SOUTH 168.8 WEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A...AND AT
14.7 SOUTH 170.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
RENE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA...
AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND
TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BEGIN IN ALL OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ON MANUA...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON TUTUILA AND AUNUU...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH BY FRIDAY MORNING...
THEN INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON
...THEN INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TO NEAR 13 TO 15 FEET
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL AFFECT NORTH...EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES
ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN PAGO PAGO AT 600 AM SST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANTS.

$$
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#48 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:36 am

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#49 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:38 pm

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Eye visible in the microwave
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SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

#50 Postby Sheronz » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:03 pm

Great animation showing why pacific tropicals systems are forced to go south-southwest.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:11 pm

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#52 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:12 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
600 AM SST FRI FEB 12 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH 168.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST OF MANU'A AND ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF PAGO PAGO AT
3 AM SST TIME FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH. IF RENE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ON THIS TRACK...IT WILL BE AT 14.1 SOUTH 169.3 WEST OR NEAR THE
VICINITY OF MANUA AT 9 A.M. FRIDAY. T.C. RENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO BE NEAR TUTUILA AT 9 P.M. TONIGHT. RENE IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA...
AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND
TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW.

...WIND IMPACTS...
MANUA...SOUTH WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
WINDS DIMINISHING 40 TO 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT DIMINISHING FURTHER
SATURDAY.

TUTUILA AND AUNUU...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH FRIDAY...INCREASING TO 40 TO
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 14 TO 16 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL AFFECT
NORTH...EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 900 AM SST FRIDAY.
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#53 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:20 pm

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The center of Rene is going to pass very close to the Manu'a Islands
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#54 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 4:59 pm

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WTPS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 168.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 168.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.2S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.3S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.5S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.2S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.3S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.4S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.4S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 169.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AS CONVECTION REMAINED DEEP
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 121636Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED HIGH-REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE ON THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED BETWEEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T4.0.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A POINT
SOURCE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MAY DEFLECT THE
SYSTEM TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
EXTENDED HOURS WHERE UKMET ATTEMPTS TO STEER THE VORTEX MORE EASTWARD
OF THE PACK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM LOCKING ON TO THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHILE GFS IS ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAKER SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
CONSENSUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:00 pm

12/2022 UTC 13.9S 168.7W T4.0/4.0 RENE -- Southeast Pacific

65 knots
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:01 pm

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Center very close to the Manu'a Islands
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#57 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:05 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
900 AM SST FRI FEB 12 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH 168.9 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES EAST OF MANU'A AND ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF PAGO PAGO AT
8 AM SST LOCAL TIME FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH. IF RENE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ON THIS TRACK...IT WILL BE OVER MANU'A BY 12 NOON TODAY NEAR 14.1 SOUTH
169.5 WEST...AND THEN ARRIVING NEAR 14.4 SOUTH 170.3 WEST OR NEAR 20 MILES
EAST OF TUTUILA AT 9 PM LOCAL TIME TONIGHT. RENE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA...
AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND
TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ON MANU'A...SOUTH WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 40 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY MORNING.

ON TUTUILA AND AUNUU...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH FRIDAY...INCREASING TO 40 TO
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INCREASING TO 65 TO
75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 18 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH...EAST
AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 1200 PM SST FRIDAY.

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#58 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 7:26 pm

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Over the Manu'a Islands
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#59 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 9:44 pm

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NRL - 70 knots
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:29 pm

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WTPS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 169.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 169.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.0S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.8S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.5S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.4S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.9S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.0S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.8S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 169.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS CONVECTION DEEPENED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A 122101Z METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CURVED HIGH-REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURE NEAR THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INTERPOLATED
BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF RANGING FROM
T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF A POINT SOURCE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTH-
WEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 120 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MAY DEFLECT THE SYSTEM TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
EXCEPT TOWARDS THE EXTENDED HOURS WHERE UKMET STEERS THE VORTEX MORE
EASTWARD OF THE PACK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHILE GFS AND GFDN ARE ON A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER SYSTEM. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH CONSENSUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
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