Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8754
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#1 Postby artist » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:34 am

I know there are probably those here that have not experinced a hurricane before, or it has been many, many years since. It can be a trying time trying to decide what you need, etc. Here at storm2k, through the years, the participants have put together a forum that tells you what they either forget and needed or the veterans letting us know what they get together for their hurrucane preps.
You can find this forum here -
Hurricane Preparation
viewforum.php?f=30&st=0&sk=t&sd=d&start=0
and here is the direct link to the lists people have put together-
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=58904
There is also a thread about Hurricane Preparations for Pets-
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=108380
Be sure to explore the first link as there is all sorts of good advice youcan get there for hurricane prep. There is also another forum for hurricane recovery & aftermath-
viewforum.php?f=33
Explore these forums, as they will help you decide what you need to do, if you are to be affected by Earl.
Know many of us here have been there, done that, and our thoughts and prayers are with you all.
Be sure to post your reports to our Reports thread on the Active Storms forums here as you can -
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109231
and be sure to check in there after the storm so we know you all are ok.
It can be the pits, but you can feel empowered by getting yourselves ready, and knowing where to start, and you will get through this. Just think ahead & think smart.
Last edited by artist on Thu Sep 02, 2010 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 23841
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane

#2 Postby Stephanie » Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:33 pm

Thank you so much for organizing these various threads, artist! :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 666
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane

#3 Postby Infdidoll » Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:26 am

Thank you! Haven't experienced a direct hit from a BIG one, yet...but all this will really come in handy. There are always things I think of with every near miss or things I find out later that I wouldn't have thought of. I really appreciate this! :D
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8754
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#4 Postby artist » Thu Sep 02, 2010 8:32 am

JUST BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT IN THE CONE MEANS NOTHING>
one thing I would like to mention is the hurricane cone forom the NHC, as you will, is simply for the center of the storm and where they think it might go. It does not account for the fact that hurricane winds are 90 miles out from that center:

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.


Please, remember, the cone is nothing but of the center of the storm and where that center could wobble, according to the NHC's usual forecast errors for that given time in a hurricane forecast. So what you are seeing does not tell you where the 90 mile radii of hurricane force winds are expected and can reach or where the tropical storm force winds that begin out past the 90 miles of hurricane force winds, will reach. Therefore from the center of the storm out on all sides ts force winds extend 140 miles each way from the hurricane force winds. The tropcial storm force winds will be lower the further from the center. Another point, within the hurricane there will always be points that could have higher winds or lower winds than within these radii. Just because it is lower when it hits you, doesn't mean the back side might not be higher, and vice versa. Many times there will be mini vortices within the storm where you could see extreme winds, even more than what is forecast, as well as there will be areas that at times may see much lower winds. Always remember that it is saying 90 miles from the center to all sides from the center- not across the center, so in other words the center 90 miles out to the north, south, east and west. And remember, that 180 miles of hurricane force winds exist across the storm. There will be areas as I stated above that may see some higher and some lower winds within these areas, as this is just a general rule of how far they go out. Just because you are not in the cone has nothing to do with whether you will receive hurricane force winds or tropical storm force winds. Total tropical storm and hurricane force winds stretch across the storm for an approximate total 460 of miles. Fortunately the storm is not forecast to go completely on shore. Tradidtionally the ne side of a storm is the worst, but sometimes that is not always true. Also, for those that have never been in a storm, remember if you are forecast to be near the center and the winds suddenly cease, this could be the eye and the other side of the storm will be there shortly. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I know I probably repeated myself above but just want everyone to be aware of these facts that are not readily known.
Last edited by artist on Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

#5 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:13 pm

i think you're misinterpreting the hurricane windfield. when the advisory says tropical storm force winds extend out up to 230 miles from the center it means just that.... not that they extend out an additional 230 miles from the outer extent of the hurricane force winds. earl is a wide load but he isn't that wide. it is also worth noting the term "up to" as in many cases the winds don't extend out that far except in one quadrant of the cyclone.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8754
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re:

#6 Postby artist » Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:20 pm

psyclone wrote:i think you're misinterpreting the hurricane windfield. when the advisory says tropical storm force winds extend out up to 230 miles from the center it means just that.... not that they extend out an additional 230 miles from the outer extent of the hurricane force winds. earl is a wide load but he isn't that wide. it is also worth noting the term "up to" as in many cases the winds don't extend out that far except in one quadrant of the cyclone.

you are correct, thanks to thetruesm for answering my question. Thank you for that correction. I have gone back and made the correction now.
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#7 Postby bvigal » Fri Sep 03, 2010 3:50 pm

Thanks for your efforts artist, especially the last week!

After Monday when Earl came through here, I have changed my mind, in part, about the wind radii. For mariners, they are very useful. For those on land, they can be very useful, but one should not rely on them. At 5pm Monday night, Hurricane Warning was dropped for BVI. But during the next hour, some of the worst damage of the storm occurred for the south coasts, by winds gusting to 80kt or better, judging from the damage. My friends lost their dock, in a bay protected by reef on a channel enclosed by islands, not open ocean, as big wind-waves rolled in from SSW. Another friend lost the roof off her apartment and 5 others. Another friend's boat sustained severe wind damage, ripping off part of the structure.

It matters little what the SUSTAINED winds are, as measured by an instrument repeatedly and then averaged over 1 or 2 minutes. When the wind is blowing off your roof in 30 seconds, you don't care if it stays the same strength for a whole minute or longer! Do your prep based on GUST SPEED in the advisories. I know that sounds so simple, but I've talked to dozens of people in the last few days who said, "it wasn't supposed to be that strong."

Also, another aspect of wind that Earl damage reminds me about, is elevation. The winds are calculated at ground level or sea level, but if you're 1000 ft up a steep hill, expect to get much stronger winds than the people at the bottom!
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8754
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#8 Postby artist » Fri Sep 03, 2010 5:31 pm

[quote="bvigal"]Thanks for your efforts artist, especially the last week!

After Monday when Earl came through here, I have changed my mind, in part, about the wind radii. For mariners, they are very useful. For those on land, they can be very useful, but one should not rely on them. At 5pm Monday night, Hurricane Warning was dropped for BVI. But during the next hour, some of the worst damage of the storm occurred for the south coasts, by winds gusting to 80kt or better, judging from the damage. My friends lost their dock, in a bay protected by reef on a channel enclosed by islands, not open ocean, as big wind-waves rolled in from SSW. Another friend lost the roof off her apartment and 5 others. Another friend's boat sustained severe wind damage, ripping off part of the structure.

It matters little what the SUSTAINED winds are, as measured by an instrument repeatedly and then averaged over 1 or 2 minutes. When the wind is blowing off your roof in 30 seconds, you don't care if it stays the same strength for a whole minute or longer! Do your prep based on GUST SPEED in the advisories. I know that sounds so simple, but I've talked to dozens of people in the last few days who said, "it wasn't supposed to be that strong."

Also, another aspect of wind that Earl damage reminds me about, is elevation. The winds are calculated at ground level or sea level, but if you're 1000 ft up a steep hill, expect to get much stronger winds than the people at the bottom![/quote]
so true bvigal! And the fact that within these storms the wind is changing all around all the time. I know with Jeanne, we ended up with a mini vortex over us and 3 of our neighbors houses. Noone else in our neighborhood had anything in their yards, other than downed branches & trees. Our 4 houses all had so much junk in our yards, such as shoes, chair parts, car parts, etc., it was unbelievable. None of these things belonged to any of us, nor any of our neighbors. They just appeared. And we know when they must have arrived as it became like a mini tornado out there for about 30 minutes of that storm. We could hear things hitting our house. You never know for certain what can happen with these storms. As always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best. I would much rather spend the extra money and time, if possible, and have nothing happen, than to be as unprepared as we were when Frances came through. We thought we were ready (our first hurricane ever) and found out had ill prepared we actually were when we lost power and all communication, up until 2 days before Jeanne decided to come our way as well, approximately 2 weeks apart. Fortunately, we were able to get those items we most missed just before Jeanne arrived.
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28253
Age: 66
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#9 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Sep 04, 2010 2:09 pm

Bvigal and Artist you are so right about the gusts. I saw someone post along the lines of "we're only supposed to get 40 mph winds but we had 68 mph gusts"(too lazy to go look for the exact quote). My response was "it is often the gusts that do the damage not the sustained winds." Great advice to prepare for expected gusts(thus the "prepare for 1 category higher" mantra)
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#10 Postby bvigal » Sat Sep 04, 2010 7:08 pm

Artist, glad you mentioned the "MINI VORTEX". I just came from town where I spoke to a woman who filmed one coming through Road Harbor on Monday during Earl! She watched the damage it did, too.

Basically, a tornado, so storm "category" means NOTHING. Flying missiles (debris) at 140mph in a Cat 1, completely possible!

Sitting out at the bar and visiting with a lot of folks tonight, we swapped stories and laughed over tales of stupidity that will last through many rounds of happy hour to come! My favorite, heard after every storm, regardless of the intensity, warnings, and lead time: "But, it was only supposed to be a Cat 1! I would have ______ (fill in the blank - put out another line, removed the sail/bimini, secured the roof, boarded the windows, etc.) if I'd known it would be a 4!" :wink:

A hurricane warning is a hurricane warning - If you are under one, prepare for anything and everything a hurricane can serve up!!
0 likes   

Ladylight
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 54
Age: 52
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:01 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens Fl (near West Palm)

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#11 Postby Ladylight » Sun Sep 05, 2010 2:22 am

Artist, bravo for putting all this together and saying so eloquently what can happen. I felt your pain with Frances and Jeanne. A couple of days before Frances, one of our neighbors was hit by a squall which caused severe damage to their roof--supposedly able to withstand up to cat 4! Also, that knocked out cable in this entire development which kept us all without TV at a time when we were relying on it. People were saying Frances was nit so strong and everything was over blown and exaggerated by the media. Oh boy! Whether she was strong enough was not the issue. Because she moved soooo slowly, she did more damage than a much stronger hurricane.

It's not always the strength or category, the wind speeds, or anything else. Sometimes, you just get hit or the storm does more than anyone told you it could. Yes, sometimes, you get lucky, but that isn't always the case at all. It's best to prepare long before the season gets to peak, stay prepared, and if you're in the cone, either evacuate or hunker down. You jst never know! But after you find out the hard way, you never ever forget.

One other thing: never ever venture out during the eye, no matter how calm or sunny it seems. One neighbour absolutely had to check his house status during the eye and lost his life, as a result. Checking property status can always wait till the storm is done. It's not like you can fix it or call anyone out to fix it anyway. So stay inside, doors and windows closed and stay safe!
0 likes   

Sihara
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#12 Postby Sihara » Mon Sep 06, 2010 2:03 pm

bvigal wrote:Basically, a tornado, so storm "category" means NOTHING. Flying missiles (debris) at 140mph in a Cat 1, completely possible!....

A hurricane warning is a hurricane warning - If you are under one, prepare for anything and everything a hurricane can serve up!!


This is so true, and I'm glad you said it! All bets are off in a hurricane, no matter what the (sustained) wind speed is "supposed" to do.

And btw, I once saw a flying missile sock a neon sign - quite the light show it was. And that was "only" a tropical storm.

Hope you are okay, bvigal, and that you won't have a visit from ex-Gaston, or any of his siblings.
0 likes   

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#13 Postby bvigal » Thu Sep 09, 2010 10:33 pm

Thanks, Sihara. From your mouth to God's ears!

I've posted links to Earl videos over in 'Aftermath' forum. Anyone trying to decide whether to board up or not, whether to stay or go, might want to watch them. :wink:
0 likes   

underthwx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: West Columbia Tx Brazoria County

Re: Preparing for a Hurricane & KNOW The CONE

#14 Postby underthwx » Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:27 pm

Excellent post....
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12098
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#15 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:25 pm

Nice job as usual :) i have not seen that before, CONGRATS :).
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26739
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 12, 2012 4:26 pm

Cone size in 2012 is a little smaller than in 2011.

Remember, that is the area with only 67% certainty! Even if just outside of it (especially in a longer-range forecast), you need to keep an eye out! Also, tropical storm conditions (and hurricane conditions in larger storms, especially at near-term positions) can and do spread well outside the cone as well, not to mention heavy rain...
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28253
Age: 66
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re:

#17 Postby vbhoutex » Mon May 14, 2012 1:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Cone size in 2012 is a little smaller than in 2011.

Remember, that is the area with only 67% certainty! Even if just outside of it (especially in a longer-range forecast), you need to keep an eye out! Also, tropical storm conditions (and hurricane conditions in larger storms, especially at near-term positions) can and do spread well outside the cone as well, not to mention heavy rain...


One of the most important posts to begin this season with!!! EVERYONE needs to understand and heed this!!!
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#18 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon May 14, 2012 3:55 pm

Everyone needs to watch this video before the season begins: http://youtu.be/X_Y1b3B5wfk
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8754
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#19 Postby artist » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:34 pm

PLEASE REMEMBER -

important info for everyone to remember -
(brought this up from another thread)
artist wrote:
I think the confusion here is also the fact there are watches outside the cone. The cone is confusing, as it is simply a line with the rate of error in miles for the center on either side at that particular timeframe- such as 12, 24, 36, 48, hours, etc. That means that if the center (eye) of the storm were to travel to the outer line of the cone, etc. then those outside the cone would see the effects of hurricane force winds, possibly or tropical storm force, etc. Whatever the storm happens to be at that point. I hope this makes sense.
An example, here in Palm Beach county we are actaully just outside the cone yet we are already under a tropical storm watch.

SouthFLTropics Post subject: Re:Posted: Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:22 pm
Category 5
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 9:04 am
Posts: 1199
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida artist wrote:

This is correct...The outer line of the cone is the margin of error where the CENTER of the storm could go. So in essence if the center were to follow the right side of the current error cone and if the storm were a hurricane then all of the East coast could potentially see hurricane conditions. As it is right now it is only a tropical storm hence the tropical storm warning. The NHC was careful to point out in the 5:00PM package though that at some point the TS watch could be upgraded to a hurricane watch.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26739
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 4:20 pm

In the case of Sandy, the cone is practically meaningless. It is expected - if it heads for the CONUS - that the impacts will be felt HUNDREDS of miles away - perhaps 500 or more - from the center.
0 likes   


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests