GFS intensifies this system over the next few days

starting to wrap

Surface map

Hopefully, it leaves Tuvalu alone.

latest infrared

This one its going to Australia by ECMWF

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

GFS agrees

Some convection

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/0856 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
179.0E AT 280600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF 250HPA RIDGE AXIS, IN MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

consensus still points towards Australia

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/2306 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
178.3E AT 282100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
AND NOW HAS INCREASED IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR. LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE
AXIS, IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

What are people's thoughts on this one? How likely are the suggestions in some quarters that this may develop into a major cyclone (with suggestions of Aus cat 4 or 5) by the time it reaches the Queensland coast?

Most of the models develop this system into a tropcial cyclone but some of them are conservative (GFS and NOGAPS) and some of them are very agressive (Euro and Canadian) so they are still in disagreement about the strength of the system. The landfall point is something very uncertain too, some runs have shown a landfall more to the north and other more to the south. In my amateur and unofficial opinion we still have to wait a couple of days to have a better idea of what is going to happen, but I would trust more in the Euro than the other models as it has done a very good job with Wilma, Bianca and teh other cyclones.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks Macrocane.

It is a long way out, of course, but people in Queensland are rather edgy about all such things after the last few weeks. Your thoughts are appreciated. be interested to see what people think as it develops over the next few days.

Cheers

Rod

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Today the models are in better agreeement and all of them show a strong tropical cyclone (except the NOGAPS but I mean it's the NOGAPS ). It seems that this system will make landfall just north or just south of the 20°S latitude, looking at a map it may make landfall somewhere between Mackay and Townsville. IMO It's better to prepare for the worst but hope for the best with this system.