ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242207
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 07 20110824
215800 1918N 06803W 3926 07720 0408 -170 -205 191005 006 024 000 00
215830 1920N 06805W 3927 07719 0410 -170 -203 185007 008 024 000 00
215900 1922N 06807W 3927 07723 0408 -169 -204 185008 009 024 000 00
215930 1923N 06809W 3926 07723 0407 -165 -202 186010 010 025 000 00
220000 1925N 06811W 3926 07723 0408 -166 -191 189010 011 025 000 00
220030 1927N 06813W 3927 07723 0408 -170 -179 193011 011 022 000 00
220100 1929N 06815W 3927 07723 0407 -168 -185 199010 010 022 000 00
220130 1931N 06816W 3927 07720 0408 -167 -182 215008 009 022 000 00
220200 1932N 06818W 3925 07721 0408 -165 -175 248008 011 023 000 00
220230 1934N 06820W 3926 07722 0407 -165 -180 255014 016 024 000 00
220300 1936N 06822W 3926 07723 0406 -165 -179 257014 015 024 000 00
220330 1937N 06824W 3926 07722 0407 -167 -175 255013 014 024 000 00
220400 1939N 06826W 3926 07718 0405 -170 -180 254012 012 024 000 00
220430 1941N 06828W 3926 07719 0405 -170 -181 248011 011 024 000 00
220500 1943N 06829W 3925 07727 0404 -170 -186 250011 011 024 000 00
220530 1944N 06831W 3927 07712 0403 -170 -182 259012 012 022 000 00
220600 1946N 06833W 3926 07719 0404 -173 -176 258012 013 022 000 00
220630 1948N 06835W 3926 07720 0404 -174 -179 241010 011 023 000 00
220700 1949N 06837W 3933 07706 0406 -175 -177 225010 010 023 000 00
220730 1951N 06839W 3927 07722 0406 -175 -175 219008 009 023 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Bocadude85]

Looks like she may clip the northern part of Long Island Bahamas

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[SNOW_JOKE]

People are using visual for imagery and looping? I go with RI myself, gives a better idea of the internal dynamics of the system aswell as banding, heights & vapor. visual feeds barely tell you anything significant.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[CronkPSU]

looks like GFS is a tad more west again from the fine folks at the longer thread...

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242217
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 08 20110824
220800 1953N 06841W 3926 07720 0406 -175 -177 223008 008 023 000 00
220830 1954N 06842W 3929 07718 0406 -175 -176 217008 009 024 000 00
220900 1956N 06844W 3927 07724 0407 -176 //// 207007 007 023 001 01
220930 1958N 06846W 3926 07719 0407 -172 -185 281001 006 024 001 00
221000 1959N 06848W 3925 07726 0409 -168 -249 003004 005 025 000 03
221030 2001N 06849W 3923 07729 0407 -173 -240 339007 008 022 000 00
221100 2002N 06851W 3927 07721 0407 -172 -230 327007 008 024 000 00
221130 2003N 06853W 3926 07718 0408 -170 -211 304009 010 026 001 00
221200 2004N 06855W 3925 07723 0406 -165 -189 293011 011 026 000 00
221230 2005N 06857W 3923 07727 0406 -166 -218 293012 013 028 000 00
221300 2007N 06859W 3926 07721 0406 -170 -207 301011 012 027 000 00
221330 2008N 06901W 3927 07720 0407 -168 -219 302011 011 028 000 00
221400 2009N 06903W 3925 07727 0409 -170 -289 305011 011 028 000 00
221430 2010N 06905W 3925 07729 0409 -165 -282 296010 010 029 001 00
221500 2012N 06907W 3925 07727 0409 -165 -228 277011 011 029 001 00
221530 2013N 06909W 3926 07719 0408 -165 -204 273011 011 029 000 00
221600 2014N 06910W 3925 07723 0408 -165 -224 278010 010 029 001 00
221630 2015N 06912W 3925 07726 0408 -165 -236 265008 009 029 000 00
221700 2016N 06914W 3926 07723 0408 -165 -246 272007 007 028 001 00
221730 2018N 06916W 3922 07725 0408 -165 -247 287006 006 028 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Add track if you can. I am around now and can do graphics if and when needed.

track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _TRACK.kmz

[seussianagenda]

That ridging really needs to back out. If it continues it's going to mean bad times for me in norfolk

[Dave]

[flamingosun]

This thing looks very well defined, and monstrous to my very ameteur eye.

I have a question for the Floridians. Have you all been warned at all to take precautions and/or evacuate? I know the latest paths do not show it taking a direct hit to you, but it is awfully close to your state. It seems any nudge to the west could be bad for you.

Not here. Not a peep. County EOC not activated. And we are on a barrier island, sticking right out there . . .
We've been told to expect lots of beach erosion, high surf ("stay out of the ocean, everyone") and 25-30 mph sustained winds, gusting to 35.

[jlauderdal]

This thing looks very well defined, and monstrous to my very ameteur eye.

I have a question for the Floridians. Have you all been warned at all to take precautions and/or evacuate? I know the latest paths do not show it taking a direct hit to you, but it is awfully close to your state. It seems any nudge to the west could be bad for you.

Not here. Not a peep. County EOC not activated. And we are on a barrier island, sticking right out there . . .
We've been told to expect lots of beach erosion, high surf ("stay out of the ocean, everyone") and 25-30 mph sustained winds, gusting to 35.

broward county schools cancelled athletics tomorrow afternoon but other than that we are banking on a good track from nhc

[tolakram]

Right on the track

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

snow_joke, that loop is not updated as often and further behind.

[bahamaswx]

Reports of a church and a few houses having lost their roofs from dead man's cay, long island (near the middle).

[CronkPSU]

Right on the track

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

snow_joke, that loop is not updated as often and further behind.

do you have the rainbow version of that?

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242227
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 09 20110824
221800 2019N 06918W 3927 07718 0408 -165 -245 288005 005 029 000 00
221830 2020N 06920W 3925 07726 0409 -165 -256 286005 005 028 000 00
221900 2021N 06922W 3922 07731 0408 -165 -283 273004 005 028 001 00
221930 2023N 06924W 3925 07726 0406 -166 -296 280004 005 029 000 00
222000 2024N 06926W 3923 07719 0405 -170 -271 282004 004 027 000 00
222030 2025N 06928W 3925 07721 0402 -172 -240 259003 003 026 000 00
222100 2027N 06930W 3925 07718 0402 -171 -235 231002 003 027 001 00
222130 2028N 06933W 3927 07711 0401 -170 -248 244002 002 027 001 00
222200 2029N 06935W 3924 07721 0401 -170 -245 224003 003 029 000 00
222230 2031N 06937W 3927 07711 0401 -170 -243 204003 004 029 000 00
222300 2032N 06939W 3927 07715 0401 -169 -252 160002 003 030 000 00
222330 2033N 06941W 3926 07713 0399 -169 -251 139003 004 030 000 00
222400 2035N 06944W 3927 07716 0400 -165 -269 105003 004 030 000 00
222430 2036N 06946W 3925 07718 0400 -165 -320 111004 004 030 001 00
222500 2038N 06948W 3927 07711 0400 -165 -288 154004 005 031 000 00
222530 2039N 06950W 3926 07712 0401 -165 -244 161006 006 033 000 00
222600 2040N 06953W 3929 07714 0401 -165 -230 181006 007 034 000 00
222630 2042N 06955W 3925 07718 0401 -166 -230 201006 007 034 000 00
222700 2043N 06957W 3926 07714 0401 -169 -237 199006 006 034 000 00
222730 2044N 06959W 3928 07714 0402 -170 -269 222008 009 033 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

Add track if you can. I am around now and can do graphics if and when needed.

track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _TRACK.kmz

Got the kmz loaded now Mark...thanks!

[Radiogirltx]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it normal for New Yorkers not to own a car? How do you evacuate a city where the majority of residence depend on public transportation?

[Dave]

NHC forecast points now on graphics also.

[WxGuy1]

Wobble watching needs to be a criminal offense.

In my opinion, much of the time, it's nearly worthless to look at 1-2 hour wobbles one way or the other. Sure, this little NW/NW jog MAY be a sign of something more permanent, just as the westward jog a few times yesterday MAY have been a sign that Irene was going to move significantly differently than expected. However, those didn't portend anything significant, and it's highly likely that this current wobble won't do much either. It does make it difficult on forum readers since the number of posts per minute that can fly through here can make it difficult to follow these threads when news and other important developments get lost amongst short posts that can probably be sent via PM to the user (e.g. "Thanks for the link" or "Good to know"-type of posts). To be sure, I only mean to be positive and beneficial in this critique!

I know that a 30-50 mile wobble may be huge for a place on the NC or NJ coast right now, but I can almost guarantee you that you'll see dozens more wobbles (both away and towards the US coastline) in the next several days. I strongly suggest not overanalyzing this situation by trying to infer how a slight wobble now will affect the hurricane's position in 4 days. The errors typical of 4-5 day forecasts are 200+ miles typically, and they are certainly much larger than any of these wobbles that have been discussed the past two days. Of course, if you live in the Bahamas, then any wobbles now DO directly impact the effects you experience.

Look at how much the 5 day forecast has changed since Sunday or Monday. We've been getting upper-air recon data the past couple of days, which has helped reduce model variability, but this is still a 5 day forecast we're talking about. If you live along the coast from NC to ME, then you should prepare to have to deal with Irene. Whether you'll see 115 mph winds or "only" 45 mph winds or a 15' surge or a 2' surge cannot be known with great confidence right now, and wobble-watching will only serve to either give you false hope or false worry. And hey, in this day and age, who needs any unnecessary stress?

(Resume wobble-watching in a couple of days when Irene is <24 hours from your location)

[shaggy]

SPC mesoanlysis page is showing a ull at the 300mb level over the east GOM. Wondering if thats gonna maybe tug it westward at some point?