ATL: IRENE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric you dont think the Carolinas are at play?

not as of right now. nothing to turn it NNE. but it could change.

What do you think about a turn just to the east of Florida and due north into SC? I certainly think that's plausible.

personally I think the models are overdoing the how fast she moves north/ nnw into the weakness. the steering seems awfully weak and a more gradual turn seem more likely if it goes north of hispaniola if it across it than it will be weaker and should be more west with a gradual turn.. right now I dont see a gulf system unless it crosses the state. just have to wait and see when this organizational phase stops and the west motion starts that will make the big difference.

[northjaxpro]

The best solution so far and has been the most consistent is the euro. it turns irene NNW into the weakness but no recurve out to sea or the carolina because there is no digging trough just the weakness and the ridge to the east and west.

I agree. The trough I feel would have to sharply amplify for Irene to reach or significantly impact the North Carolina coast or recurve move out to sea. I think the S.C. coast may see some impacts much more than N.C. at this time. Of course, the situation could change, but as of now, the curent model runs does indicate a significant weakness over the SE U.S. to have Irene move into it, but I see the system more on a Northward heading mostly for now. If ridging builds in late in the period, it may be more of a N/NW motion moving the system or possible remnants inland into the SE U.S. by late into the weekend. That is why all interests in the entire SE U.S. should be paying extremely close attention to Irene's progress because due to its massive size, it could be a potential huge rainmaker across the region.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Unfortunately it looks like we'll probably have to wait until Tuesday to have a clear indication of landfall. Many factors still left to develop. From GA to Central Panhandle IMO are greatest threat. Biggest factors:
1) Hispanola - how the storm traverses it (or not) and its state after that fact. If it greatly weakens, then a more westward direction and slower/meandering around ridge periphery. If less affected, then a more northerly path and sharper turn around the ridge periphery into the weakness.
2) Strength of ridge and speed at which it builds back to the west. IF it builds back stronger/faster then the storm will take a more westerly path through FL or EGOM. If it is slow to build back, then the weakness could be felt and periphery followed to the north sooner, resulting in the more easterly path across or to the east of Florida.

[CrazyC83]

If this passes north of the big islands, could it recurve without hitting the CONUS?

[Vortex]

A closer look at the 12z early tropical models:

They are starting to gather on the east coast of FL or just offshore. One negative thing to this that it will spend more time over water and gather more strength before entually moving onshore whether is in central or NE FL or points north towards GA or the Carolinas.



The 12z TVCN just barely moved to the right, it has moved from landfall near Homestead to Miami Beach from its previous run, so I expect the NHC to not move much its track on their next advisory.

12Z TCVN continues to suggest more and more like Irene will make landfall nearm Miami then head inland and up much of the FL east coast....

[NDG]

If this passes north of the big islands, could it recurve without hitting the CONUS?

There's a big Atlantic ridge that will be nearing Bermuda by the middle of the week, she cannot recurve out to sea.

[Kory]

If this passes north of the big islands, could it recurve without hitting the CONUS?

It will definitely go more to the east of the NHC track if that does happen, but a recurve is not likely. Ridge over the Atlantic prevents it from recurving. It would go more north into SC or NC.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lonelymike]

Just FYI...looking over the guidance tonight there is an increasing chance this misses Florida to the east putting South Florida on the weaker side and hitting Georgia or the Carolinas

Just wanted to give a shout out to Michael He stayed practically 24 hours straight to provide the models and commentary on this thread. I don't always agree with Michael on models but I appreciate his effort and time. Give em a shout out

[northjaxpro]

A closer look at the 12z early tropical models:

They are starting to gather on the east coast of FL or just offshore. One negative thing to this that it will spend more time over water and gather more strength before entually moving onshore whether is in central or NE FL or points north towards GA or the Carolinas.



The 12z TVCN just barely moved to the right, it has moved from landfall near Homestead to Miami Beach from its previous run, so I expect the NHC to not move much its track on their next advisory.

The TCVN could shift slightly left over the next couple of days, but yeah it is looking very likely now that much of the peninsula is going to get impacted for sure.

[UpTheCreek]

Just FYI...looking over the guidance tonight there is an increasing chance this misses Florida to the east putting South Florida on the weaker side and hitting Georgia or the Carolinas

Just wanted to give a shout out to Michael He stayed practically 24 hours straight to provide the models and commentary on this thread. I don't always agree with Michael on models but I appreciate his effort and time. Give em a shout out

+1...... I ALWAYS appreciate Ivanhater's work and opinions!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Sure looks like the development sooner and further north in latitude made all the difference in the world with the models having Irene feel the weakness and turn more sharply into it.

I believe though this scenario could change if Irene fails to deepen much more due to either the dry air or hitting Hispaniola directly. If she were to be weakened or remains weak she could make a less dramatic NW turn and still end up in the SE GOM!

This is reminding me a lot of Floyd in 1999, without the CAT 5 factored in. Track trending and forecasting is very similar, though.

I'd be real concerned if I lived in Wilmington NC (AKA "the Chin") right now.

Trust me, we are watching and are concerned.

[Duddy]

Sure looks like the development sooner and further north in latitude made all the difference in the world with the models having Irene feel the weakness and turn more sharply into it.

I believe though this scenario could change if Irene fails to deepen much more due to either the dry air or hitting Hispaniola directly. If she were to be weakened or remains weak she could make a less dramatic NW turn and still end up in the SE GOM!

This is reminding me a lot of Floyd in 1999, without the CAT 5 factored in. Track trending and forecasting is very similar, though.

I'd be real concerned if I lived in Wilmington NC (AKA "the Chin") right now.

Trust me, we are watching and are concerned.

Agreed.

[ROCK]

Just FYI...looking over the guidance tonight there is an increasing chance this misses Florida to the east putting South Florida on the weaker side and hitting Georgia or the Carolinas

Just wanted to give a shout out to Michael He stayed practically 24 hours straight to provide the models and commentary on this thread. I don't always agree with Michael on models but I appreciate his effort and time. Give em a shout out

great job IVAN...as always,,,,and i think your statement is looking more a possibility as a center relo to the north and now its looking to track over PR.....might miss FL all together now...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like the latest 5 day cone still suggests the possibility of a South Florida landfall guys.

[Bocadude85]

I wouldnt be surprised to see this miss Fla to the east now that the center has relocated farther north

[Weatherboy1]

Wow -- this looks like a pretty solid consensus that we're in for something here in south FL. And the possibility for serious intensification exists if Irene doesn't do battle with the island of Hispanola. Ugh

[northtxboy]

Poeple in Florida and east gulf dont let ur guard down. wxman57 said yesterday that it would track just west off florida and I have to agree with him. most of the time to man is right on the money, its what he does for a living. Just because the models shifted to the east for 1 or 2 runs doesnt mean anything this far out. Everyone should be prepared!!!

[HugoCameandLeft]

In Charleston and paying attention. Generally speaking, if it were to skirt the FL coast and ride up into the Carolinas, how much impact would that have on intensity and/or intensification?

EDIT - Sorry mods, should have posted this in discussion forum. Pls feel free to move if you like.

[bella_may]

Poeple in Florida and east gulf dont let ur guard down. wxman57 said yesterday that it would track just west off florida and I have to agree with him. most of the time to man is right on the money, its what he does for a living. Just because the models shifted to the east for 1 or 2 runs doesnt mean anything this far out. Everyone should be prepared!!!

Exactly what I said last night. And if this gets in the e gom. No telling where it could go from there

[M_0331]

A long ways out but looks like a Floyd w/o NNE turn. I am glad I cut my timber last yr.