ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#61 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:58 pm

Wxman, do you think it will miss the trough and head back WSW into TX?
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#62 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:59 pm

I think a lot will depend on how tightly this system wraps up. If convection is displaced due to shear or not getting its act together then some places very near the center of circulation could end up seeing very little in the way of rain and just have a cloudly, drizzly very windy day. Then those further off to the northeast could have all the rain and less of the wind. It just depends, really! I think someone will get a lot of rain but I think it might be displaced, just my opinion.
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#63 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:00 pm

The NAM may have been on to something when they had this developing earlier then most models yesterday.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
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Re:

#64 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:01 pm

fci wrote:I'll give it 2-3 days before the thread on 93L/Future Lee passes the thread on Katia in number of pages....... 8-)


Don't forget to add the 32 pages that this got to before it was even an invest. :lol: The Katia discussion is only at 30 pages. This could already be leading, haha
Last edited by BigB0882 on Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:01 pm

fci wrote:I'll give it 2-3 days before the thread on 93L/Future Lee passes the thread on Katia in number of pages....... 8-)


If it stalls for a few days in the GOM as some models have it may well get close to Irenes one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#66 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:03 pm

First Tropical Model plots for 93L:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 311850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC WED AUG 31 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110831 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110831  1800   110901  0600   110901  1800   110902  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.1N  87.0W   25.3N  89.2W   26.5N  91.4W   27.1N  93.1W
BAMD    24.1N  87.0W   25.0N  88.3W   25.9N  89.4W   26.6N  90.3W
BAMM    24.1N  87.0W   25.2N  88.8W   26.2N  90.5W   26.9N  91.8W
LBAR    24.1N  87.0W   25.2N  88.4W   26.4N  89.8W   27.4N  91.0W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          42KTS          50KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          42KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110902  1800   110903  1800   110904  1800   110905  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.6N  94.5W   26.9N  96.4W   24.9N  98.0W   23.0N 101.1W
BAMD    27.3N  90.8W   28.3N  90.9W   28.9N  91.2W   28.9N  91.0W
BAMM    27.5N  92.9W   27.1N  93.6W   25.8N  91.4W   28.2N  88.3W
LBAR    28.3N  92.0W   29.0N  93.1W   29.1N  94.1W   29.0N  94.8W
SHIP        59KTS          69KTS          73KTS          71KTS
DSHP        59KTS          69KTS          73KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.1N LONCUR =  87.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  22.5N LONM12 =  85.5W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  19.8N LONM24 =  83.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#67 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
The Euro is very close to getting picked up by the trough to be fair. How far west this gets in the short term is going to make a huge difference in this getting picked up or left behind in the Gulf imo.


Yep, almost but not quite picked up. Wonder if the 00Z GFS will do a switch and show it blocked then moving west once the blocking high moves east?


I wonder if the 00z Euro will get fully picked up? :cheesy:

Regardless, looks like a lot of rain for the Gulf coast.
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#68 Postby Turtle » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:06 pm

Hey guys, how far inland is the flooding potential (should this happen to go as projected)? I probably won't get much, but I am along I-20 close to the TX/LA border and am hoping to see some rain. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#69 Postby alan1961 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:06 pm

underthwx wrote:Aric...can illustrate on radar with an arrow or a circle..the area of a possible LLC..you mentioned before the topics changed?


Somewhere about here underthwx :wink:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#70 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:07 pm

Very uncertain

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#71 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:10 pm

underthwx wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
caneman wrote: Just as I suspected. Euro has been all over the place. Euro Fail...Still too early though to know for sure..


Give it a rest. So you don't like the Euro. The GFS has had plenty of failures this year. Euro was pretty consistent with Irene, keeping the track close to the coast...when the GFS has started moving it out to sea and had to bring it back towards the coast. The GFS was horrible with Don. The Euro wasn't much better. A blend worked OK.

It's a model. The GFS is a model. Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated. Either add something constructive or don't add anything at all.


with that being said...i almost hate to ask..and i understand that yall are very busy...but as a beginner...are the Euro and the Gfs the main models the NHC use mostly?...for reliability?
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Re: Re:

#72 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:12 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
caneman wrote: Just as I suspected. Euro has been all over the place. Euro Fail...Still too early though to know for sure..


Give it a rest. So you don't like the Euro. The GFS has had plenty of failures this year. Euro was pretty consistent with Irene, keeping the track close to the coast...when the GFS has started moving it out to sea and had to bring it back towards the coast. The GFS was horrible with Don. The Euro wasn't much better. A blend worked OK.

It's a model. The GFS is a model. Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated. Either add something constructive or don't add anything at all.


Not a euro hater a model consensus lover - just for the record ;)

"Any Euro-hating...or even GFS-hating agenda's are not going to be tolerated."
Good - glad to hear it :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#73 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:12 pm

underthewx, the GFS and Euro are considered "global" models and used to predict weather throughout the world. Then they are tropical models which are designed to forecast the movement of tropical cyclones. You will find those on websites like the South Florida Water Management District and Colorado State and others in the "Model Sites" link above.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#74 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:12 pm

Another view

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#75 Postby underthwx » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:13 pm

alan1961 wrote:
underthwx wrote:Aric...can illustrate on radar with an arrow or a circle..the area of a possible LLC..you mentioned before the topics changed?


Somewhere about here underthwx :wink:

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/4684/invest93l.gif[/img]




thanks...i was looking further west....everything to me looks like its spinning out there...
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#76 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:14 pm

Alot of people are fans of the Euro, and its a good model. I personally think the GFS is better. But that discussion will lead to fist fights here on s2k. It really doesnt matter, always look for the consensus.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:16 pm

Let's not quote images.If you are going to quote a post with an image,take off the img tag.Thank you for your cooperation on this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#78 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:17 pm

Sure looks like a North Gulf coast threat but way to many variables in play.
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#79 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:19 pm

I love NOGAPS myself...Woo hoo...Back OT!!!
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Re:

#80 Postby caneman » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:19 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Alot of people are fans of the Euro, and its a good model. I personally think the GFS is better. But that discussion will lead to fist fights here on s2k. It really doesnt matter, always look for the consensus.


I hear ya. Model consensus is always is a good way to go. Will be more right than wrong. I use to 2nd guess NHC for a long time but I don't think I ever won any of those battles.
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