ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby clfenwi » Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:53 pm

In the Bay of Campeche

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061850
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


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ATL: NATE - Models

#2 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:56 pm

Post model runs here.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby maxintensity » Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:57 pm

According to the 2005 report from the NHC on Katrina, (which would not include Gustav/Ike) during the past 20 years, all 11 hurricanes having a central pressure less than 973 mb 12 h before landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico weakened during these last 12 h.

Not sure where this is headed but it's an interesting stat to keep in mind if this heads north.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - MODELS

#4 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:58 pm

12z Euro close to Mobile, Alabama as a hurricane. Given the persistent cut off low hanging around the south bringing record lows, this track would make sense not allowing ridging to develop. We will see though

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#5 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:02 pm

it seems like the vast majority of storms that form in boc make landfall in that region. I'm skeptical of the north/northeast solution. certainly possible though so as always...hurry up and wait.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - MODELS

#6 Postby lonelymike » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:04 pm

[quote="Ivanhater"]12z Euro close to Mobile, Alabama as a hurricane. Given the persistent cut off low hanging around the south bringing record lows, this track would make sense not allowing ridging to develop. We will see though


would be a fast mover as 144 Euro has this in NC by Monday.


GO SEMINOLES

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#7 Postby BigA » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:07 pm

The GFS operational moves this into Mexico, but a good number of the ensemble runs send it northeast at various speeds.

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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:10 pm

The EURO would be crazy if it panned especially for folks in Mobile, AL who already had a ton of rain this past weekend. But like some others on the board I have hard time buying into the track and strength considering the conditions currently in the GOM. JMHO

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#9 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:14 pm

I can't see this becoming much of anything, look at all that dry air! Unless it takes off ENE very quickly it is going to run smack dab into it. This would have a hard time even challenging Lee as far as strength and structure, IMO.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby clfenwi » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:19 pm

From NOAA's historical tracks site, post-August tropicals storms since 1960 that have been within 100 nm of the 18Z best track position. Site identified 16 storms; the one going to Pensacola is Opal while the one to Texas is 1989 Jerry.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby bigdan35 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:20 pm


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#12 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:22 pm

It looks like 96L is developing rather quicky IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby bigdan35 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:22 pm

That says hello to Ivan :eek:








http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com

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Re:

#14 Postby maxintensity » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:The EURO would be crazy if it panned especially for folks in Mobile, AL who already had a ton of rain this past weekend. But like some others on the board I have hard time buying into the track and strength considering the conditions currently in the GOM. JMHO
And Euro had Lee at 930mb in New Orleans and Katia brushing the outer banks of NC. Euro seems to be losing its touch lately and GFS is eating it for lunch.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:23 pm

Yeah..12z FIM into Pensacola

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:26 pm

clfenwi wrote:From NOAA's historical tracks site, post-August tropicals storms since 1960 that have been within 100 nm of the 18Z best track position. Site identified 16 storms; the one going to Pensacola is Opal while the one to Texas is 1989 Jerry.

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/21/96lclimatology.jpg/][img]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/8783/96lclimatology.jpgurl]


Thanks for that clfenwi. It would be interesting to compare the 500mb from when Opal hit to what it is today.
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#17 Postby psyclone » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:34 pm

wow. so my impression was correct. opal is a glaring exception to the rule. and nothing at all east of there.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:41 pm

not to mention that Opal didnt make its landfall until October 4th, nearly a month from now. Its gonna be interesting to see how this plays out.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#19 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:42 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Yeah..12z FIM into Pensacola

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/mslpsfcf156.png/][img]http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/9297/mslpsfcf156.pngurl]

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What website did you get that model run from? I have never seen that before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:44 pm

So, as of now, where does everyone see this system heading?


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