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 Post subject: ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:53 pm 
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In the Bay of Campeche

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061850
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



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 Post subject: ATL: NATE - Models
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:56 pm 
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Post model runs here.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:57 pm 
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According to the 2005 report from the NHC on Katrina, (which would not include Gustav/Ike) during the past 20 years, all 11 hurricanes having a central pressure less than 973 mb 12 h before landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico weakened during these last 12 h.

Not sure where this is headed but it's an interesting stat to keep in mind if this heads north.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - MODELS
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:58 pm 
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12z Euro close to Mobile, Alabama as a hurricane. Given the persistent cut off low hanging around the south bringing record lows, this track would make sense not allowing ridging to develop. We will see though

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:02 pm 
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it seems like the vast majority of storms that form in boc make landfall in that region. I'm skeptical of the north/northeast solution. certainly possible though so as always...hurry up and wait.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - MODELS
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:04 pm 
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[quote="Ivanhater"]12z Euro close to Mobile, Alabama as a hurricane. Given the persistent cut off low hanging around the south bringing record lows, this track would make sense not allowing ridging to develop. We will see though


would be a fast mover as 144 Euro has this in NC by Monday.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:07 pm 
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The GFS operational moves this into Mexico, but a good number of the ensemble runs send it northeast at various speeds.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:10 pm 
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The EURO would be crazy if it panned especially for folks in Mobile, AL who already had a ton of rain this past weekend. But like some others on the board I have hard time buying into the track and strength considering the conditions currently in the GOM. JMHO


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:14 pm 
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I can't see this becoming much of anything, look at all that dry air! Unless it takes off ENE very quickly it is going to run smack dab into it. This would have a hard time even challenging Lee as far as strength and structure, IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:19 pm 
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From NOAA's historical tracks site, post-August tropicals storms since 1960 that have been within 100 nm of the 18Z best track position. Site identified 16 storms; the one going to Pensacola is Opal while the one to Texas is 1989 Jerry.

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:20 pm 
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12Z Fim Model
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?d ... 244&wjet=1






http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:22 pm 
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It looks like 96L is developing rather quicky IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:22 pm 
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That says hello to Ivan :eek:








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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:22 pm 
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Stormcenter wrote:
The EURO would be crazy if it panned especially for folks in Mobile, AL who already had a ton of rain this past weekend. But like some others on the board I have hard time buying into the track and strength considering the conditions currently in the GOM. JMHO
And Euro had Lee at 930mb in New Orleans and Katia brushing the outer banks of NC. Euro seems to be losing its touch lately and GFS is eating it for lunch.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:23 pm 
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Yeah..12z FIM into Pensacola

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:26 pm 
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clfenwi wrote:
From NOAA's historical tracks site, post-August tropicals storms since 1960 that have been within 100 nm of the 18Z best track position. Site identified 16 storms; the one going to Pensacola is Opal while the one to Texas is 1989 Jerry.

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/21/96lclimatology.jpg/][img]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/8783/96lclimatology.jpgurl]


Thanks for that clfenwi. It would be interesting to compare the 500mb from when Opal hit to what it is today.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:34 pm 
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wow. so my impression was correct. opal is a glaring exception to the rule. and nothing at all east of there.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:41 pm 
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not to mention that Opal didnt make its landfall until October 4th, nearly a month from now. Its gonna be interesting to see how this plays out.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:42 pm 
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Ivanhater wrote:
Yeah..12z FIM into Pensacola

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/mslpsfcf156.png/][img]http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/9297/mslpsfcf156.pngurl]

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What website did you get that model run from? I have never seen that before.

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Last edited by Ivanhater on Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Remove IMG tags


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:44 pm 
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So, as of now, where does everyone see this system heading?


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