ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Stormlover2012]

can a met telk us why the model are going more west is the high over colorado moving to the southeast?

[meriland23]

Which way is the HWRF moving at landfall?

going NW toward W MISS/E LA after landfall..

what site is that from?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est072.gif

here is a quick was for you to see next/before images, on the link where it says 'nest072' replace '072' with 6 hr incriments (006,012,018....096,102, etc)

[stormreader]

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I wouldn't look for any shift back east now, as some have said. We're in the 72 hour period--One of our two main models has dramatically shifted west and now two others have joined it in La. The HWRF hasn't gone that far yet, but it too shifted west. All signs point to somewhere near the mouth of the Mississippi River (and might be a tad west of that).

Don't know anything---just an amateur.

[jinftl]

Makes you see what a tough job the NHC has - they are on top of Isaac and doing an excellent job as always. We are not seeing anything they are not...huge swings 4 or 5 days out are probably not going to happen at this point...not when the average track error is 250 miles and they can just widen the cone as needed. The actual movement is in line with the current forecast...beyond that is a forecast that will change. A few days ago, the track showed this going east of florida possibly.

that's a pretty good shift west... if the NHC does not shift the cone west a tad later tonight I would summize that they don't have much confidence in this latest back of runs.. but still I would be surprised.. my humble opinion only.. thanks

This is one of the main reasons I anticipate the NHC updates to the cone. If they don't shift despite some models moving then it tells me the NHC has great reason to disregard those models. If it does shift then it certainly gives credence to their movement.

[Dean4Storms]

Loop still loading HWRF 18z......


http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... p_loop.php

[tolakram]

Please keep discussion limited to model runs. Thanks.

[BigB0882]

HWRF very slow moving, begins to finally life a little more N on the last frame I saw at 90 hrs. Spends 24 hours over the same general area. Not only is this a lot of consensus on landfall but also on the stall occurring.

[Dean4Storms]

Doubtful NHC makes a huge shift west at 11pm, but they might shift more toward P'Cola dependent on what the GFS and other guidance at 00z is putting out.

[Jevo]

here is the full HWRF run.. Still an initial landfall in the Upper Keys South FL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[PTPatrick]

Wouldn't be surprised that if gfs outs out another mississippi landfall, they move to a Gulf Shores-ISh landfall. It would be a big jump for them but not "that" big

[LAwxrgal]

Why are the models shifting west all of a sudden? I saw this song and dance before. It didn't end well.

[BigB0882]

Yeah, I doubt the NHC does anything drastic because the last thing they want to do is look like they are flip-flopping. If they move it they will make sure it isn't too drastic. They would prefer to take baby steps and we have seen this time and time again from the NHC.

[Blinhart]

From what I understand, they are expecting an ULL to form in the Gulf, and I guess some of the models are moving it to where it will push Isaac more towards Ms/La, then Fl/Al.

[Frank P]

Yeah, I doubt the NHC does anything drastic because the last thing they want to do is look like they are flip-flopping. If they move it they will make sure it isn't too drastic. They would prefer to take baby steps and we have seen this time and time again from the NHC.

Yeah, I agree, that is their standard operating procedure... Maybe Pens would be the target, who knows.. time will tell.. I would be very surprised any further west than Pens however... my FWIW opinion only..

[jlauderdal]

here is the full HWRF run.. Still an initial landfall in the Upper Keys South FL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

it would be a big victory for hwrf if the system goes through the middle to upper keys, it sniffed this out a few days ago

[Angferba]

This model chart for GFS 18Z has a high end category 3 wind at 110 kts but pressure is only forecast to be 985.6hPa - is this discrepancy due to the resolution issues?

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... cal_25.png

Scrub that - just realised it's for H85

[Jag95]

I was skeptical of the strength that the last run of the HWRF showed, but with this one he's out over the open Gulf with less land interaction, so who knows. Low 940s is where Frederic was, a borderline Cat 3/4.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

here is the full HWRF run.. Still an initial landfall in the Upper Keys South FL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

it would be a big victory for hwrf if the system goes through the middle to upper keys, it sniffed this out a few days ago

Agree,

seems as most our more focused on the last land fall verses the first US land fall.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well finally able to sit down and catch up on all the latest models trends, and what a surprise to see yet another wetward shift on the final landfall. While interesting I am not nearly as concerned as I was when the euro was showing it a couple days ago. Now if the euro shifts to say the MS/LA line or even further west that will perk me up. Truthfully am expecting most of the models that are currently showing a west shift to shift back more towards the east for the 0z runs. That has been the trend as of late. 18z west followed by east shift for 0z and 6z. Nothing to do but wait and see.

[Blinhart]

here is the full HWRF run.. Still an initial landfall in the Upper Keys South FL

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

it would be a big victory for hwrf if the system goes through the middle to upper keys, it sniffed this out a few days ago

Agree,

seems as most our more focused on the last land fall verses the first US land fall.

Yes, I'm sorry, I'm guilty of that. I do realize that there are millions of people that are going to get hit by Isaac before the Northern GoM, but since most of the people down there are use to Tropical Storms and minimum Hurricanes, we aren't focusing on them. I do realize there is a chance it could be more than a minimum Hurricane, but most of us and the experts don't expect it to be much stronger than 80 to 90 mph when it goes through the Keys, we aren't that worried. What we are worried about is the Northern GoM because it looks like it will be a Major Hurricane by then, so all eyes are on that area.