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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:41 am 
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Rock, what do you think the initiation of 30 mb high will do to this model. It Initiates at 984 mb

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:43 am 
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stephen23 wrote:
Rock, what do you think the initiation of 30 mb high will do to this model. It Initiates at 984 mb


thats doesnt make a hill of beans. :D ..its down stream that is the driving force of where this will go...yes I am a EURO hugger.. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:45 am 
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Didn't know if it will end up a little closer to florida if its stronger and feels the low more

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:52 am 
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stephen23 wrote:
Didn't know if it will end up a little closer to florida if its stronger and feels the low more



FL is going to get a good lashing of TS force winds I am sure....the EURO has closest approach at 72hrs at 974MB....windfiled will be huge...

take a look at this map....potentially cat 4 all the way up to Carolinas

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:59 am 
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dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:50 am 
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That ^^^ signifies a huge disturbance in the force....I am officially 'worried.' Wow...and wow again....back to sleep I go! Be safe everyone. The Euro seems to be onto the track as well....


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:18 am 
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GFS is really cranking the ULL. This looks more like a Fujiwhara interaction as Sandy approaches the NE coast.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:28 am 
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ROCK wrote:
dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Seriously, my jaw is on the floor at this point :eek: :eek: :eek: . That was a keeper for sure. I agree, I have never seen anything like what some of these models are forecasting at the point, absolutely uncharted territory. What really has me drooling is how there is now consistency and some agreement coming on all this!

ROCK wrote:
stephen23 wrote:
Didn't know if it will end up a little closer to florida if its stronger and feels the low more



FL is going to get a good lashing of TS force winds I am sure....the EURO has closest approach at 72hrs at 974MB....windfiled will be huge...

take a look at this map....potentially cat 4 all the way up to Carolinas

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

So that's what got your attention, but this isn't going to be fully tropical by the time it gets to the Carolina...at least that's what the models are showing. The incredible bombing it does near there is not tropical deepening. If that's not what you mean then I don't get the "CAT4 all the way up to Carolinas" part.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:01 am 
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ROCK wrote:
dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I literally let out a HAH so loud when I saw that hook I scared my cat off the couch and may have woken up my wife...lol

That is nuts...and since I'm in NJ...a bit concerning

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:31 am 
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Much more of a recurve in the GFS ensemble members

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... smodel.gif


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 Post subject: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:46 am 
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Lets just say... The ECMWF and the Carolinas are not close buddies right now.

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:02 am 
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GCANE wrote:
Much more of a recurve in the GFS ensemble members

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... smodel.gif


Looks like most of the ensembles are west of the operational too.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:04 am 
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Kingarabian wrote:

Lets just say... The ECMWF and the Carolinas are not close buddies right now.



I don't know how to interpret exactly what you're saying here. "Not close buddies", as in it's giving Carolinas a good berth or it'll be bad for the Carolinas. Could you elaborate for the less experienced?


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:32 am 
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ROCK wrote:
dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


Been involved with Emergency Mgmt in Florida and the Caribbean for 20yrs...Of course, attended all the conferences etc, every national conference included a Doomsday workshop...at least 2 dealt with the potential for NYC major landfall. Up until now, it had the quality of good fiction, exciting from a distance. Given the confluence of the models, all the heavy hitters save the GFS, this is the first time "potential" may become reality. Fema is beginning to roll on it. This reminds me of the last couple of days pre Katrina when suddenly everyone began to realize those NOLA exercises werent going to be exercises anymore...Rich


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:50 am 
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No one has mentioned the operational GFS, but it is back on board with a Maine solution...granted it is 6Z, so let's see what the 12Z says.


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:04 am 
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06z HWRF is way left compared to the 00z.

00z

Image

06z

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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:06 am 
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UpTheCreek wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:

Lets just say... The ECMWF and the Carolinas are not close buddies right now.



I don't know how to interpret exactly what you're saying here. "Not close buddies", as in it's giving Carolinas a good berth or it'll be bad for the Carolinas. Could you elaborate for the less experienced?


Euro has been consistant over the past ten to fifteen runs on it's affect on the OBX. Nasty would be an undersstatement. High winds, rain, huge surf, moderate to severe flooding. Pulling for the GFS personally (but a Euro hugger in reality).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:56 am 
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Extra radiosonde launches started at 06Z today.

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 Post subject: Re:
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:32 am 
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brunota2003 wrote:
Extra radiosonde launches started at 06Z today.



the 12Z GFS is the one to watch....as well as the EURO coming up later today....

I am just waiting for the next CMC run later so I can start taking drinking... :ggreen:


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 Post subject: Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:59 am 
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Hmm, a lot of very close shortwaves as Sandy is in the north Bahamas.

May not make so much the right turn before the NW recurve.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


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