New Storm Surge map

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109178
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

New Storm Surge map

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:28 am

This will be a very important tool to follow when a storm or hurricane threats any area of the U.S coast from the GOM going thru the east coast to Maine.

Anyone who may want to discuss about this can come and do so anytime.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140131_p ... raphic.pdf
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
got ants?
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:44 am
Location: Hollywood/Ft Laud

Re: New Storm Surge map

#2 Postby got ants? » Wed Jul 02, 2014 1:43 pm

Interesting! I just looked and the had a map up for the SE coast, from Florida up to the Carolinas. Looks like a loy of the areas where water touches land, will experience flooding. Not sure how accurate it is, or what flood heights (storm surge) they are using for this.

Though it is in its experimental stage, it may not be very accurate, and is just list areas of possible storm surge.
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109178
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: New Storm Surge map

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 06, 2014 12:40 pm

Here is useful updated information released on November 6 2014 about the new Storm Surge Map.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20141106_p ... rgeMap.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109178
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: New Storm Surge map

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2016 5:45 am

NHC new guidelines and maps about storm surge.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/inundation/
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
EyewallKnight
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:42 am
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#5 Postby EyewallKnight » Thu May 26, 2016 9:14 pm

Hmm, very useful. I have a feeling I will be using that tool a lot this season.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 28255
Age: 66
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#6 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:08 am

EyewallKnight wrote:Hmm, very useful. I have a feeling I will be using that tool a lot this season.

Unless you are a crazy person(wait I know about this! :lol: ) as a chaser yes you will/should!!
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17290
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: New Storm Surge map

#7 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:18 am

Note that the storm surge map above is not a forecast, it's a probabilistic map. Let me explain. As an example, let's say you look at the map and for your area you see that the potential inundation is "greater than 6ft" (but less then 9ft). It does not mean that the forecast for your location is for a storm surge causing 6-9ft of inundation. It means that the surge (inundation) for your location has only a 10% chance of being higher than 6-9ft. Conversely, there's a 90% chance that the surge will be 6-9ft or lower.

Basically, the map says that the surge at your location could result in an inundation of 6-9ft, but only if the hurricane makes landfall at a point which places your location in the zone of maximum storm surge and if the hurricane makes landfall at the predicted intensity & wind field size. Therefore, the map attempts to identify a worst-case scenario for a given location. There's only a 10% chance that the surge could be worse than what the map identifies.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15961
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#8 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:51 am

wxman57 wrote:Note that the storm surge map above is not a forecast, it's a probabilistic map. Let me explain. As an example, let's say you look at the map and for your area you see that the potential inundation is "greater than 6ft" (but less then 9ft). It does not mean that the forecast for your location is for a storm surge causing 6-9ft of inundation. It means that the surge (inundation) for your location has only a 10% chance of being higher than 6-9ft. Conversely, there's a 90% chance that the surge will be 6-9ft or lower.

Basically, the map says that the surge at your location could result in an inundation of 6-9ft, but only if the hurricane makes landfall at a point which places your location in the zone of maximum storm surge and if the hurricane makes landfall at the predicted intensity & wind field size. Therefore, the map attempts to identify a worst-case scenario for a given location. There's only a 10% chance that the surge could be worse than what the map identifies.


Yes. This is very important. It identifies the 10 percent exceedence which can be thought of as the "reasonable worst case scenario". If you're in the 6 to 9 foot area, there is a really good chance you won't see 6-9 feet. However, a 10% chance of 6-9 feet is worth evacuating for.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17290
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: New Storm Surge map

#9 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:33 pm

It's not a 10% chance of 6-9 ft, it's a 10% chance of being HIGHER than 6-9 ft. The chance of over 6ft is greater than 10%.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15961
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#10 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jun 18, 2016 5:43 pm

Yeah. My mistake on the wording.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109178
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: New Storm Surge map

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2016 8:47 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#12 Postby mitchell » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:02 am

I see potential for confusion between this product, and local products which take model output for an upcoming event and actually map the predicted storm surge over LiDAR topopgraphy. Maybe I'm over thinking it.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15961
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#13 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:23 am

mitchell wrote:I see potential for confusion between this product, and local products which take model output for an upcoming event and actually map the predicted storm surge over LiDAR topopgraphy. Maybe I'm over thinking it.


What local product? NHC will issue one national map for potential storm surge flooding that includes flooding above ground.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#14 Postby mitchell » Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:21 pm

I'm sure there are others out there. For example, the University of Delaware maintains an application that takes storm surge model output at selected locations along the Delaware coast and graphically depicts projected inundation areas with flood depths, flood depths above evacuation road profiles etc.

No coastal flooding predicted for next 48 hours, but you get the idea...the surge model output is mapped over LiDAR data, with the ability to also load in evacuation route profiles.

Image
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15961
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#15 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:26 pm

Thats what the NHC product is except on a national level. It takes the P-surge output and maps it to a city/street level showing how high above ground (using high res lidar data) the surge may get.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17290
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: New Storm Surge map

#16 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:11 pm

mitchell wrote:I see potential for confusion between this product, and local products which take model output for an upcoming event and actually map the predicted storm surge over LiDAR topopgraphy. Maybe I'm over thinking it.


You can't represent the surge threat using a deterministic track over LiDAR topography. In most cases, such a plot is guaranteed to be wrong. To be correct would require a perfect forecast of the landfall point, wind field size/distribution, wind speeds, and timing of arrival (effects of tides). I did a 10-yr study of landfall forecast points for 24, 48, and 72 hrs from landfall. I think the average error just 24hrs out was just over 45 miles. A 45 mile error could mean the difference in a large storm surge or tides below normal at landfall.

That's why it's important to go to a probabilistic approach that discusses how high the surge could get as more of a worst-case. People have to react/respond to the potential storm surge, not a deterministic surge forecast based on the current track/intensity/size forecast. Of course, if every forecast was absolutely perfect then we could use the deterministic forecast to predict the exact surge height.

What the public have to understand is that if they live in a location where they could get inundated by 6-9 ft. of storm surge, then they need to prepare for the possibility of such a surge, even though there's a fair chance the surge will turn out to be less than that. We won't be really sure what the surge might be until the center is an hour or two from landfall, and that's too late to take actions.
1 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15961
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#17 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:16 pm

A common example given by NHC on this is Ivan. 24 hours before landfall, a deterministic forecast was predicting devastating surge for Mobile Bay and relatively small surge for Pensacola Bay. Since the storm ended up making landfall just east of Mobile Bay instead of to the west of it, Pensacola got the devastating surge while Mobile Bay had limited storm surge.

Thats why the NHC product uses a probabilistic model (P-surge) that perturbs size, intensity, direction, and speed. Small changes in track (everwhere) or forward speed (especially on East Coast where there are larger tidal swings) can be the difference between 20 feet of surge and 2 feet of surge.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#18 Postby mitchell » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:41 pm

You can't represent the surge threat using a deterministic track over LiDAR topography. In most cases, such a plot is guaranteed to be wrong.


if they live in a location where they could get inundated by 6-9 ft. of storm surge, then they need to prepare for the possibility of such a surge, even though there's a fair chance the surge will turn out to be less than that.


I agree with all of what you say, and think there is potential for confusion for exactly the reasons you say above: two different types of storm surge forecasts going on (deterministic and worst case), showing different outcomes, both likely to be wrong. In my observation this creates both frustration, and cynicism.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15961
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#19 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:51 am

From my understanding there is not an official deterministic forecast product issued by NWS/NHC (e.g. Location X will get 5.3 feet of surge). Even in the past saying Location X will get 4 to 8 feet of surge is pretty much a probabilistic forecast in hiding. Most people aren't expected to understand the map. Thats what the storm surge watch and warning is for. The best part about the inundation map is how it will help decision makers. In the long run it will help limit unnecessary evacuations. P-Surge will do a better job that just evacuating on MOMs and MEOWs.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: New Storm Surge map

#20 Postby mitchell » Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:37 pm

That was my original point about potential confusing between local sources that are making deterministic surge forecast maps available (such as the site depicted above) and the NWS disseminating surge products pre-event which are not actually forecasts of the surge event.
0 likes   


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bfjj and 18 guests