WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Likely a TS right now

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed. I don't think it'll be too strong though,

[Nimbus]

Has to get up out of the ITCZ before it really spins up.
When does it cross 10N not till -47 Degrees W?

[Yellow Evan]

Has to get up out of the ITCZ before it really spins up.
When does it cross 10N not till -47 Degrees W?

Most CPAC storms are low lying.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT 6 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT EAST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS...MAKING THE LLCC EASY TO FIND. CIMMS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT SHEAR REMAINS LOW...AROUND 8 KT...CORROBORATING THE
DECENT OUTFLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH ALL BUT THE EAST
QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM CPHC AND SAB
CORROBORATE WHAT SEEMS TO BE A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF GENEVIEVE...AND
WE FEEL THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12
HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWING BAMM AND BAMS GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE THE BEST
JOB SO FAR WITH THE GENEVIEVE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF A
WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO SIDE
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH
INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GENEVIEVE MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN AND THIS IS
REFLECTED AT ALL TAU ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAP GENEVIEVE STRENGTH AT ABOUT 40 KT
AFTER 36 HOURS IN SPITE OF A LACK OF DEBILITATING SHEAR AND LITTLE
OR NO DIFFERENCE IN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MIMIC-TPW AND
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW NARROW SWATHS OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTRAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THIS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN CONDUCIVE
AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SEEM TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR GENEVIEVE DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH GUIDANCE OTHER THAN SHIPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.9N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/JACOBSON

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 301430
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CONTINUES MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE
WEST AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE LLCC HAS MOVED BENEATH THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF
LAYERED CLOUDS AND DEEP CONVECTION...MAKING THE LLCC A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. CIMMS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SHEAR REMAINS
LOW...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 7 KT...NOTICEABLE BY THE SLIGHTLY
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OBSERVED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM CPHC AND SAB...ALONG WITH 1.5 FROM
JTWC...SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.

GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT...PROMPTING THE SAME FOR THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH CONTINUES
TO CLOSELY FOLLOW BAMM AND BAMS GUIDANCE. THESE TWO MODELS HAVE
HANDLED THE GENEVIEVE TRACK THE BEST SINCE THIS SYSTEM REGENERATED.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BOTH CAP FORECAST INTENSITY AT 35 TO 40
KNOTS...PEAKING AFTER 36 HOURS...IN SPITE OF A LACK OF DEBILITATING
SHEAR AND ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF JUST ABOVE 27C ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK. MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MIMIC-TPW AND RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SWATHS OF RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR ENTRAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THIS DRY AIR ALONG WITH WARMER
THAN CONDUCIVE AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SEEM
TO BE THE LIMITING FACTORS PREVENTING MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GENEVIEVE TO BECOME A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.9N 149.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 12.9N 150.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.0N 151.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.1N 153.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.3N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 13.7N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 14.1N 159.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 14.5N 162.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/JACOBSON

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 310850
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST DEPICTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SHOW THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SUFFER
FROM THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF SOME DRY AIR. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS ALMOST
10 KT. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES FROM PHFO,
SAB AND JTWC INDICATED THE CURRENT T NUMBER REMAINS 2.0. THEREFORE,
THE LATEST INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. MORE PROBLEMATIC
HAS BEEN THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE LLCC. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ERRATIC AS THE LLCC BEGAN TO SEPARATE
FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY NOT ONLY THE
POSITIONS PROVIDED BY THE FIX AGENCIES, BUT RECENT SSMIS, TRMM, AMSU
MICROWAVE PASSES AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES ALLOWED
US TO CONFIRM THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE REVISED
TRACK, THE GENERAL MOTION OF GENEVIEVE IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT
06 KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION STARTING
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE TRACK, WHICH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WESTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY APPEARS TO SHOW THE CURRENT TREND
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT ABATE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE GUIDANCE ALSO DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM, EVEN THOUGH SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 27C ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. NOTE, THAT THE CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ALONG THE MOST RECENT FORECAST TRACK. FOR THIS ADVISORY, GENEVIEVE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS,
ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS IT WILL EXPERIENCE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.1N 150.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.1N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.1N 152.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 13.1N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 13.1N 155.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.0N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 13.5N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 13.5N 169.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Hurricane_Luis]

For the last 2 days this was a TS. Just the CPHC did not do anything. It weakening now though.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA42 PHFO 312050
TCDCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS ALL
THAT REMAINS OF GENEVIEVE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SPORADIC DEEP
CONVECTION OBSERVED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THUS THE SYSTEM
IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST...270/06 KT. THE REMNANT OF
GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF DUE WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED IN
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS THE REMNANT LOW WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO FORECAST AND FOLLOWS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD GENEVIEVE
AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS EASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. CURRENT SHEAR VALUES CAME IN AT 15
KT FROM SHIPS AND 13 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. ALSO WORTH NOTING...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5...AND THUS
THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS OF A
FACTOR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SST VALUES REMAIN STEADY ALONG ITS
PROJECTED TRACK. THUS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SHIPS...
INDICATE THAT THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT REGENERATION COULD
ONCE AGAIN OCCUR IF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON GENEVIEVE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
FORECAST INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.0N 151.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 01/0600Z 13.0N 152.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1800Z 12.9N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z 12.8N 155.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z 12.7N 157.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z 12.5N 162.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z 12.6N 167.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 13.2N 172.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

2. Remnant low Genevieve is currently located about 550 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Atmospheric conditions are only marginally favorable for its redevelopment over the next few days as it moves westward near 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 53 57 60 63 68 72
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 48 53 57 60 63 68 38
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 48 55 61 70 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 8 8 4 2 2 8 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 -6 0 1 -4 -7 -7
SHEAR DIR 120 108 92 67 79 96 99 156 329 357 58 89 75
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6

[somethingfunny]

Convection is building from the center again today! It looks as good as Bertha does...

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, have no clue why they gave this a 10%.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It looks like Genevieve is back....again.

The GFS tracks this into the West Pacific and intensifies it to 969mb. Talk about an interesting system.

[somethingfunny]

Do you have a paid Imgur or some sort of file compressor? My rehost requests have been denied lately because SSD gifs are larger than 2MB.

Genevieve is looking even better though. This is definitely a tropical storm even if CPHC has been asleep all night.



The GFS maintains Genevieve all the way across the Pacific. 384 hours out is complete fantasyland of course, but if this verifies then Genevieve will be in the record books for a really long time!



Genevieve is the 973mb extratropical typhoon striking Russia - for what it's worth the GFS keeps Genevieve safely away from the Marianas Islands. The 996mb low is actually 96E along with the remnants of Iselle which it absorbs after Iselle strikes Hawaii.... and that 1003mb pulling up toward Hawaii is the remnant of Julio after it also strikes Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Genvieve part 3. Never tracked a storm like this.

1. Thunderstorms associated with former tropical depression Genevieve have become better organized during the past 6 hours. The center of this system, which is moving westward at about 10 mph, is located about 515 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Latest satellite data indicate that Genevieve is redeveloping into a tropical depression, and advisories will be reinitiated for this system at 5 am HST this morning.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 100 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA22 PHFO 021440
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 155.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 155.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 155.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.6N 157.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.2N 159.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.8N 162.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 11.0N 164.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.5N 169.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 175.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 178.0E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 155.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[CrazyC83]

I can't recall the last time a storm died and came back TWICE...

[Yellow Evan]

I can't recall the last time a storm died and came back TWICE...

Paul 82.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06z GFS has this deepening to 943 mb over the Western Pacific.