BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014
The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an
increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the
convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and
organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT
pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the
surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the
convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and
are initiating advisories at this time.
The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.
The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72
hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could
dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity
forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given
much weight in the official forecast.
The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The
cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its
life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward
heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that
the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small
vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower
than usual.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Advisories
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Re: ATL: TWO - Remnants - Advisories
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014
The compact depression has not changed much during the past several
hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near
the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of
the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western
half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable
to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not
become better defined.
The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good
agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time
it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the
weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly
mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining
strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the
expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official
intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model
guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.
Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the
north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate
is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the
Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little
to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the
initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus
TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 12.0N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 45.1W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
BY THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014
The compact depression has not changed much during the past several
hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near
the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of
the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western
half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable
to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not
become better defined.
The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good
agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time
it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the
weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly
mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining
strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the
expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official
intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model
guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.
Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the
north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate
is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the
Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little
to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the
initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus
TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 12.0N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.
As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.
The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.
As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.
The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.
As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.
The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.
As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.
The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 49.6W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
The satellite presentation of the depression has become less
impressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold
cloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the
low-level center is located on the east side of the convective
canopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB
Dvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to
be taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear
should result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a
trough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a
48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also
possible that the system could dissipate even sooner.
The initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
dissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to
the north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is
close to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.2N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 49.6W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
The satellite presentation of the depression has become less
impressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold
cloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the
low-level center is located on the east side of the convective
canopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB
Dvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to
be taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear
should result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a
trough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a
48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also
possible that the system could dissipate even sooner.
The initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
dissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to
the north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is
close to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.2N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 51.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection
than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the
convective pattern consists of a small circular area of
thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding
features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt
based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.
The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the
vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in
shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry
air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48
h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.
The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even
faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking
the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles
late Wednesday or on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 51.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014
The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection
than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the
convective pattern consists of a small circular area of
thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding
features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt
based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from
UW-CIMSS.
The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the
vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in
shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry
air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48
h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.
The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even
faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking
the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles
late Wednesday or on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep
convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates
that the convection is not particularly well organized. An AMSR2
image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing
definition. The depression is currently passing just south of
NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute
wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb. Based on a TAFB
Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind
speed remains 30 kt.
The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even
more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and
dry air. These conditions should cause the depression to weaken
during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours. All of the
dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before
reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the
cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt. The
depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward
to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day
or so. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 59.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep
convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates
that the convection is not particularly well organized. An AMSR2
image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing
definition. The depression is currently passing just south of
NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute
wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb. Based on a TAFB
Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind
speed remains 30 kt.
The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even
more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and
dry air. These conditions should cause the depression to weaken
during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate
into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours. All of the
dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before
reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the
cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt. The
depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward
to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day
or so. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 59.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories
REMNANTS OF TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
Visible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened
overnight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep
convection. Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed
surface circlation so this is the last advisory on this system
issued by NHC. The remnants of the depression are expected to move
through the Lesser Antilles this evening with some areas of gusty
winds and showers.
Further information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TWO
12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014
Visible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened
overnight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep
convection. Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed
surface circlation so this is the last advisory on this system
issued by NHC. The remnants of the depression are expected to move
through the Lesser Antilles this evening with some areas of gusty
winds and showers.
Further information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TWO
12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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