EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Could we witness the 1st category 5 in the Northern Hemisphere outside of the West Pacific?

Halong and Genevieve achieved that intensity...

I'm thinking 115 knots Cat 4 peak for Marie...

[Yellow Evan]

934 mbar.

As for the Euro dropping the idea of a major, it sucks with systems this low in latitude.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS rolling out. Looks as strong if not stronger than the last one so far.

[euro6208]

12z GFS rolling out. Looks as strong if not stronger than the last one so far.

Weaker on this run 953 mb still a powerful hurricane...

[CrazyC83]

934 on a global model in the deep tropics is insanely low. That would likely be sub-900 in reality given the resolution issues.

How do the conditions here compare to those that Haiyan encountered?

[Yellow Evan]

934 on a global model in the deep tropics is insanely low. That would likely be sub-900 in reality given the resolution issues.

How do the conditions here compare to those that Haiyan encountered?

Ill look that up in a sec, but I did some searching through archives of forums and Rick 09 was forecast a day or two prior to genesis to be at similar intensity that this TC is.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS rolling out. Looks as strong if not stronger than the last one so far.

Weaker on this run 953 mb still a powerful hurricane...

Yep. Track a little more NW.

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

934 on a global model in the deep tropics is insanely low. That would likely be sub-900 in reality given the resolution issues.

How do the conditions here compare to those that Haiyan encountered?

I doubt there's as good

HEAT CONTENT 3 5 8 11 9 3 3 13 20 25 14 11 4

Oceanic Heat is high, but not insanely high.

SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.9

SST's are 29-30C, not 32C.

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 11 12 8 6 8 11 7 9 8 12

Shear is low, but not as low as they were in Rick 09's case. Given its large size, it shouldn't be an issue.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

UKMET makes this strong



So does the FIM

[supercane4867]

TXPZ29 KNES 201217
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 20/1145Z

C. 7.1N

D. 93.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SWIR INDICATES A MIDLEVEL AND PSBL LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LLC BEING FULLY DEFINED. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO
SHORT LIVED BURSTS THAT DO NOT HAVE BANDING... SO DT IS LESS THAN 1.0.
MET IS 1.0 FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24HRS...BUT WITHOUT
CONVECTION PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS 1.0 BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT
LIMIT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT IN FIRST 48HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...GALLINA

[Kingarabian]

Well considering that there's always a possibility for RI, we've come to understand that global models in most cases are conservative.

Because we've seen storms that models forecast to be minimal hurricanes (65-75kts), rapidly intensify and become very strong Cat. 4 majors.

So this thing has a chance to become very very strong. Especially since models are peaking it at borderline cat.5 strength.

[Yellow Evan]

Well considering that there's always a possibility for RI, we've come to understand that global models in most cases are conservative.

Because we've seen storms that models forecast to be minimal hurricanes (65-75kts), rapidly intensify and become very strong Cat. 4 majors.

So this thing has a chance to become very very strong. Especially since models are peaking it at borderline cat.5 strength.

155-160 knts is probs its ceiling. In many cases earlier this season, there environments supported Cat 3/4. In this case, I'd be surrpised if we got something stronger than 155-160 knts. SST's going down aren't as warm to support a Hayian.

[cycloneye]

Well,what is this? SHIP doesn't have a hurricane at 18z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922014) 20140820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140820 1800 140821 0600 140821 1800 140822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.5N 94.7W 9.2N 96.3W 10.0N 98.0W 10.9N 99.7W
BAMD 8.5N 94.7W 9.2N 96.3W 9.9N 98.0W 10.5N 99.8W
BAMM 8.5N 94.7W 9.1N 96.5W 9.8N 98.1W 10.4N 99.8W
LBAR 8.5N 94.7W 9.1N 96.4W 9.9N 98.5W 10.7N 100.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140822 1800 140823 1800 140824 1800 140825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 101.5W 13.5N 104.6W 15.3N 107.3W 17.6N 110.2W
BAMD 11.1N 101.5W 12.0N 104.2W 13.9N 105.6W 17.7N 107.5W
BAMM 11.0N 101.5W 12.2N 104.3W 14.4N 106.1W 18.1N 109.2W
LBAR 11.3N 103.6W 12.2N 108.7W 12.6N 113.3W 12.5N 114.7W
SHIP 46KTS 59KTS 60KTS 60KTS
DSHP 46KTS 59KTS 60KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 94.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 7.9N LONM12 = 93.1W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 92.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 08/20/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 53 59 60 60 59 60
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 53 59 60 60 59 60
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 38 42 48 53 60
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 14 15 13 13 11 14 12 10 22 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 0
SHEAR DIR 81 70 56 40 46 52 40 37 18 1 348 330 315
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 154 155 158 160 161 161 160 164 169
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.0 -50.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 82 83 84 81 82 80 80 78 78 76
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 28 23 16 -1 -3 -12 6 15 44 68 101
200 MB DIV 117 139 119 96 90 76 90 98 129 138 125 120 126
700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -6 -7 -1
LAND (KM) 708 726 734 704 680 652 660 675 664 602 523 425 447
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.4 16.1 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.6 96.5 97.3 98.1 99.8 101.5 103.0 104.3 105.2 106.1 107.1 109.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 12 14
HEAT CONTENT 5 10 11 8 5 2 6 14 28 26 12 6 60

Ill give the storm the benefit of the doubt and assume shear is overinitialized.

[cycloneye]

GFS vortex is lost?

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: GFS vortex is lost?

Something is off with this run. That or all the prior runs were not off.

[somethingfunny]

Fully expect this to be a Cat.5 Hurricane.

Agree. Conditions are just too favorable for just only a category 3 or 4.

Inner core dynamics (such as eyewall replacement cycles) come into play when talking about the intensity of powerful hurricanes, which is why many Category 4 hurricanes never intensify further to Category 5 intensity.

One thing in 92E's favor is it has plenty of time to work out its' inner core dynamics. Most EPAC hurricanes have to race against the clock to intensify ASAP before running over the 26 degree isotherm and collapsing. Here we have at least a week before that happens.

934 on a global model in the deep tropics is insanely low. That would likely be sub-900 in reality given the resolution issues.

How do the conditions here compare to those that Haiyan encountered?

One thing that set Haiyan apart from the pack was its' very low latitude (around 10 degrees). The troposphere is taller the closer you get to the equator, and that allows thunderstorms to get taller, colder, and more intense. I don't think you'll ever see cloud tops as cold as Haiyan's even in a perfect hurricane at 15-20 degrees latitude which is where Marie is expected to peak.

[Yellow Evan]

If you want a good analog for this



This might be it. Similar time of year. Peaked 125 knts officially, but arguably was stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

Big shift NW shown by the UKMET. Gonna kinda deepen whether the center consolidates though.