* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902015 05/23/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 53 56 55 53 49 47 44
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 53 56 55 53 49 47 44
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 52 53 50 46 42 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 7 6 10 7 9 9 14 12 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -2 -4 -4 -2 1 1 0 2 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 82 34 34 55 83 98 153 177 200 209 216 235 237
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 162 160 153 147 141 135 133 131 131 131
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 68 66 64 65 59 57 51 52 48 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 54 48 30 15 12 10 9 3 3 1 -6
200 MB DIV 133 102 99 65 61 66 55 59 20 21 19 5 -17
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -7
LAND (KM) 2476 2419 2362 2290 2219 2071 1931 1813 1695 1577 1461 1340 1213
LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.9 7.7 8.6 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.7
LONG(DEG W) 137.3 138.0 138.6 139.3 140.1 141.4 142.5 143.2 143.8 144.5 145.4 146.6 148.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 54 55 54 52 48 32 21 14 9 7 3 2 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 28. 31. 30. 28. 24. 22. 19.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
EPAC: INVEST 90E
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 1650 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has
become better organized over the past 24 hours. Some additional
development is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical
depression could form during that time. After that time,
development is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast and north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
about 1650 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has
become better organized over the past 24 hours. Some additional
development is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical
depression could form during that time. After that time,
development is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast and north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902015 05/23/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 51 51 49 46 45 42
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 51 51 49 46 45 42
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 49 49 47 43 39 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 8 8 10 6 5 5 8 9 11 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -5 -4 -5 3 2 2 3 0 1 0
SHEAR DIR 51 36 49 73 74 128 158 191 219 213 214 221 256
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 161 159 153 148 141 136 134 133 134 137
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 64 63 64 63 58 55 53 53 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 45 34 24 14 13 15 12 9 12 6 0
200 MB DIV 116 109 83 71 56 53 29 24 24 27 11 -1 -30
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -5
LAND (KM) 2459 2394 2330 2259 2188 2042 1910 1785 1675 1558 1447 1333 1211
LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5
LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.3 139.0 139.8 140.5 141.9 142.9 143.7 144.4 145.2 146.3 147.9 149.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 54 55 54 52 47 31 21 14 10 7 4 5 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 20. 17.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902015 05/23/15 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 51 51 49 46 45 42
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 49 51 51 49 46 45 42
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 49 49 47 43 39 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 8 8 10 6 5 5 8 9 11 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -5 -4 -5 3 2 2 3 0 1 0
SHEAR DIR 51 36 49 73 74 128 158 191 219 213 214 221 256
SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 161 159 153 148 141 136 134 133 134 137
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 64 63 64 63 58 55 53 53 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 45 34 24 14 13 15 12 9 12 6 0
200 MB DIV 116 109 83 71 56 53 29 24 24 27 11 -1 -30
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -5
LAND (KM) 2459 2394 2330 2259 2188 2042 1910 1785 1675 1558 1447 1333 1211
LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5
LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.3 139.0 139.8 140.5 141.9 142.9 143.7 144.4 145.2 146.3 147.9 149.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 54 55 54 52 47 31 21 14 10 7 4 5 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 20. 17.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Kingarabian
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
5 PM PDT:
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system located about 1600 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is currently not well
defined. Some development of this system is possible during the
next day or two, and it has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves slowly northward. Thereafter, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast and north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system located about 1600 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is currently not well
defined. Some development of this system is possible during the
next day or two, and it has the potential to become a tropical
depression while it moves slowly northward. Thereafter, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast and north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902015 05/24/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 47 46 44 40 37 35 33
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 47 46 44 40 37 35 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 46 44 39 35 31 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 7 3 1 4 5 9 8 10 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -7 -5 -5 0 4 3 2 3 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 34 64 74 72 78 147 242 232 248 223 220 235 264
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 158 155 150 143 138 134 132 131 130 130
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 64 64 66 61 58 52 54 51 52 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 28 22 16 8 13 14 16 16 12 6 6
200 MB DIV 103 87 72 66 50 63 31 15 32 36 28 -4 -17
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -5
LAND (KM) 2394 2318 2243 2169 2096 1950 1824 1721 1602 1493 1378 1270 1183
LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.6
LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.1 139.9 140.7 141.4 142.7 143.5 144.0 144.6 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.7
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 56 53 51 44 36 24 17 11 8 4 2 2 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 22. 21. 19. 15. 12. 10. 8.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/24/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/24/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902015 05/24/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 47 46 44 40 37 35 33
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 47 46 44 40 37 35 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 45 46 44 39 35 31 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 7 3 1 4 5 9 8 10 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -7 -5 -5 0 4 3 2 3 0 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 34 64 74 72 78 147 242 232 248 223 220 235 264
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 158 155 150 143 138 134 132 131 130 130
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 64 64 66 61 58 52 54 51 52 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 28 22 16 8 13 14 16 16 12 6 6
200 MB DIV 103 87 72 66 50 63 31 15 32 36 28 -4 -17
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -5
LAND (KM) 2394 2318 2243 2169 2096 1950 1824 1721 1602 1493 1378 1270 1183
LAT (DEG N) 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.6
LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.1 139.9 140.7 141.4 142.7 143.5 144.0 144.6 145.3 146.3 147.5 148.7
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 56 53 51 44 36 24 17 11 8 4 2 2 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 22. 21. 19. 15. 12. 10. 8.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 05/24/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 05/24/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Yellow Evan
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HurricaneTracker2031
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
90E is now looking more organized than 91E. However, this system (90E) has lost some of its convection over the last 24 hours and it is looking weak. Unless it builds some more convection, this system will struggle to stay alive in these next hours. Therefore, we will see, this is all dependent on the direction that this system will take which is not definitively answered.
Synopsis on 90E and other areas: http://goo.gl/n6okTa
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Synopsis on 90E and other areas: http://goo.gl/n6okTa
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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SHORT VERSION OF DISCLAIMER: THIS SITE LINK BELOW IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECASTING OFFICE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO MAKE ANY EMERGENCY DECISIONS....
http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com
http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com
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Yellow Evan
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A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1450 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has remained poorly defined
over the past several hours. Shower activity is currently limited,
and development of this system is becoming less likely. The
disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to
westward, and it could cross 140W longitude and into the Central
Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has remained poorly defined
over the past several hours. Shower activity is currently limited,
and development of this system is becoming less likely. The
disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to
westward, and it could cross 140W longitude and into the Central
Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Is almost over.
An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to become less
defined. The associated shower activity also remains limited,
and the chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone
development is decreasing. The disturbance is moving slowly
westward and could cross into the Central Pacific basin later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent
An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to become less
defined. The associated shower activity also remains limited,
and the chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone
development is decreasing. The disturbance is moving slowly
westward and could cross into the Central Pacific basin later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent
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Yellow Evan
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Pretty much a trough at this point.
I'm disappointed. If we don't go Greek this year, I'm blaming these two systems.
I'm disappointed. If we don't go Greek this year, I'm blaming these two systems.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun May 24, 2015 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Pretty much a trough at this point.
I'm disappointed. If we don;t go Greek this yea, I'm blaming these two systems.
I guess you wont be disappointed with the next one that will fun to track.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Bye:
The area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii has degenerated into a trough. The associated
shower activity remains limited, and development of this system is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
The area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii has degenerated into a trough. The associated
shower activity remains limited, and development of this system is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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