EPAC: EIGHT-E - Post-Tropical

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#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:44 pm

Never seen such major forecaster to forecaster disagreement. I think Kimberlain may be placing too much weight on the GFS solution, but we'll see.
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:03 pm

We'll see what ASCAT says, but I really doubt this will become a TS.
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#23 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:37 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Never seen such major forecaster to forecaster disagreement. I think Kimberlain may be placing too much weight on the GFS solution, but we'll see.


Yes, from all the discussions I've read, Stewart seems to prefer the ECMWF and its reliability.
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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Never seen such major forecaster to forecaster disagreement. I think Kimberlain may be placing too much weight on the GFS solution, but we'll see.


Yes, from all the discussions I've read, Stewart seems to prefer the ECMWF and its reliability.


The best thing to forecast is probably a post-tropical remnant low at days 4 and 5.

Very few forecasters are as experienced as Kimberlain and given how these low-lying storms sometimes behave, it wouldn't surprise me if this fizzled out.
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#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:44 pm

0z GFS back to keeping this around till the WPAC as a very weak remnant. GFS form time to time has been showing it opening it up sooner, but the overall trend has remained the same. This is why you look at the trend and past runs, sometimes it is better.
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#26 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:08 am

Interested to see what the Euro will show.

Funny how the Euro has become more bullish than the GFS lately.
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#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:12 am

Kingarabian wrote:Interested to see what the Euro will show.

Funny how the Euro has become more bullish than the GFS lately.


It's been a bit of a reversal in roles this year.

ECMWF has been launched on to a Geneieve-esque cyclone minus the EI for like 4 days now. I don't see anything diffrent.

GFS seems off since the past runs have been under-initializing this thing.
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#28 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:46 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

There has not been much change with the depression during the last
several hours. Although an area of deep convection has been
persisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern
lacks banding features. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB.

The depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of
north-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the
thunderstorms are located to the south of the center. This
continued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north
of the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any,
during the next day or two. After that time, weakening is expected
when the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over
slightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant
strengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus
model. Most of the global models show the depression opening into a
trough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by
showing dissipation at 96 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should
cause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general
motion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates. The
NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 28, 2015 6:58 am

RapidScat confirms this is a 30 knot TD. LLC quite elongated, but now for sure closed.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:16 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The depression continues to lack banding features, and the low-level
center is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of
deep convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six
hours ago, while final-T numbers from the UW-CIMSS ADT have been
decreasing. The initial winds are therefore kept at 30 kt. The
SHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly
shear is currently affecting the depression. The shear is expected
to decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will
also be moving into a drier air mass. The intensity and global
models show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast
still allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime
during the next 24 hours. Dissipation could occur earlier than
shown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the system becoming
an open trough by 72 hours.

The subtropical ridge continues to steer the depression west-
northwestward at about 11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn
westward later today and maintain that trajectory until it
dissipates in three or four days. No significant changes were made
to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the GFS-ECMWF
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2015 3:36 pm

No Guillermo.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest
of a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating
outward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the
circulation. The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased
from this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
center is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly
shear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours.
At the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting
increasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat
content values. Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in
the official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity
and global models. The global models open the system up into a
trough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that
time.

The depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the
low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. Due to its shallow nature,
the depression should continue to move quickly westward until it
dissipates. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future
track, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the
consensus of those two models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 28, 2015 5:29 pm

Doubt it will become a TS, but shear will decrease tomorrow.
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#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:32 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 290017
TCSENP

A. 08E (NONAME)

B. 29/0000Z

C. 16.7N

D. 130.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED LL
CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER NEAR TO A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET
AND PT ARE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2015 9:46 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The depression's cloud pattern is becoming less organized. The
low-level center continues to be exposed, and the overall extent of
the cyclone's deep convection has diminished since yesterday. What
few puffs of convection remain are shapeless and occurring in
sporadic bursts. Satellite classifications are T1.5 and T2.0 from
TAFB and SAB, respectively, suggesting that 30 kt is still a
reasonable intensity estimate.

A stiff northwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt affecting the depression
is supposed to decrease considerably during the next couple of days.
However, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic
factors such as even less available atmospheric moisture suggest
that weakening is likely. In fact, according to the global models,
it would be optimistic for depression to survive another 48 hours.
The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous
one, and is in agreement with the unanimous model guidance calling
for dissipation in 2 days or less.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10. A low- to mid-level
subtropical ridge north of the depression should direct it
westward during the next day or so. Once the weak system becomes
even shallower, it is expected to trek westward or even west-
southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation.
The official forecast is almost identical to the previous one as
well as to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.1N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:32 pm

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 291437
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

A recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the depression still
has a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection
has become less organized since yesterday. The intensity remains at
30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Vertical shear
is out of the north-northwest at 10-15 kt, which is lower than
yesterday, but the depression has been moving into an increasingly
drier air mass. Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and
degenerate into a trough by 48 hours, following the evolution
depicted in the global models.

The initial motion is 270/11 kt, with the depression being steered
westward by the low-level ridge to its north. A westward motion
with some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before
the depression dissipates, and the updated NHC track forecast is
shifted only slightly southward to follow the GFS-ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 17.0N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.8N 138.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 16.6N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:34 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

Deep convection associated with the depression is becoming less
organized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the
eastern and southeastern part of the circulation. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB. North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to
diminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving
into a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values.
Degeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the
latest global model guidance. Although not explicitly indicated in
the forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before
dissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection.

The depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has
leveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt. A low-level ridge to the
north should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until
dissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:43 pm

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300232
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

The depression's cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds with a few small patches of deep convection. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a
Dvorak CI number from TAFB. North-northwesterly shear and dry air
continue to affect the cyclone. Although the shear is expected to
lessen, even drier air lies ahead of the system. The global models
show the depression opening into a trough in a day or so, and the
official forecast follows that guidance. The depression could
become a remnant low before it dissipates if organized deep
convection does not return soon.

The initial motion estimate is 265/14. A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer the
cyclone just south of due west until it dissipates. The NHC track
forecast is an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of
the guidance envelope. This system is expected to cross into the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on
Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 16.6N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 16.4N 139.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 16.2N 142.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Post-Tropical

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:15 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

Tropical Depression Eight-E has been devoid of organized deep
convection near the center for more than 18 hours, except for an
isolated thunderstorm that has recently developed just south of the
well-defined circulation center. However, the main band of
convection is located in the northeastern quadrant, but it is more
than 200 n mi from the center. Therefore, this system no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone; it is being designated
as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued at this
time. The initial intensity remains at 25 kt based on an earlier
RapidSCAT overpass. Since the remnant low is heading toward a more
hostile environment, the new NHC official forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, calling for dissipation in about 24 hours.

The remnant low is moving at 270/11 kt. This general motion should
continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest by
Friday morning. The remnant low is forecast to cross into the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility within the
next couple of hours.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.5N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 01, 2015 3:32 pm

Despite the CPHC opinion, it might be trying to come back.

3. A weak low pressure system, associated with post-tropical cyclone Eight-E, was located about 300 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. It was moving west at 10 to 15 miles an hour. Isolate thunderstorms near the center of the low had reintensified this morning. But atmospheric conditions will remain unfavorable for further development over the next couple of days.
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