EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Here's a 3pm CDT satellite shot showing both "Tropical Depression Eight-E" (which appears to be a remnant low) and "Invest 91E" (which appears to be a strengthening tropical storm). Not sure what is missing for upgrading 91E.

The real kicker is that even both Dvorak agencies came with TS numbers.

I guess it doesn't matter since it's so far out.

Looks like it may become a hurricane before it's declared.

[Alyono]

I'd also like to know why this is not a depression. This is as clear as the Bay of Bengal system

[cycloneye]

Good banding.

[Yellow Evan]

As how much I respect the NHC, today is one of those days where I'm confused on there thinking.

[srainhoutx]

As how much I respect the NHC, today is one of those days where I'm confused on there thinking.

The 'wheels' are in motion. Patience...

[Yellow Evan]

As how much I respect the NHC, today is one of those days where I'm confused on there thinking.

The 'wheels' are in motion. Patience...

It's not about being patient, it's about getting it right.

This IMO is at least a TD, probs a TS.

[WeatherGuesser]

Good banding.

Haven't we seen worse looking Hurricanes?

[Yellow Evan]

Good banding.

Haven't we seen worse looking Hurricanes?

Maybe Bertha, Carlos, Cristobal, and Fay just to name a few.

[cycloneye]

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore · 8m8 minutes ago
Best looking Invest I've ever seen! 91E ready to be #Guillermo

[Alyono]

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore · 8m8 minutes ago
Best looking Invest I've ever seen! 91E ready to be #Guillermo

I have to be honest, even IMD upgrades this

[TheStormExpert]

I know odds are very very slim to none that this will happen, but what if this were to hit Hawaii as a major hurricane, would that count as ending the U.S. major hurricane drought even if in the Central Pacific?

Of course I NEVER would wish this to occur just curious.

[Kingarabian]

Watch the NHC designate it as a TD and say "this may be conservative"

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore · 8m8 minutes ago
Best looking Invest I've ever seen! 91E ready to be #Guillermo

Pretty sure Jim is keeping a close eye on this one!

[Kingarabian]

I know odds are very very slim to none that this will happen, but what if this were to hit Hawaii as a major hurricane, would that count as ending the U.S. major hurricane drought even if in the Central Pacific?

Of course I NEVER would wish this to occur just curious.

Yes, but:

The U.S. major hurricane drought is an impressive feat. However, a major hurricane striking Hawaii is a feat of its own.

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has a well-defined center of circulation. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized, and
if the current trend continues, advisories will be initiated on this
system later this evening or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

So pretty much they don't feel like issuing advisories.

[Yellow Evan]

I know odds are very very slim to none that this will happen, but what if this were to hit Hawaii as a major hurricane, would that count as ending the U.S. major hurricane drought even if in the Central Pacific?

Of course I NEVER would wish this to occur just curious.

Well, Hawaii is in the US, so yes.

There's a chance at that rate we're going that Hawaii might end the drought honestly.

Or it could be Guam that ends it.

[Alyono]

I know odds are very very slim to none that this will happen, but what if this were to hit Hawaii as a major hurricane, would that count as ending the U.S. major hurricane drought even if in the Central Pacific?

Of course I NEVER would wish this to occur just curious.

Well, Hawaii is in the US, so yes.

There's a chance at that rate we're going that Hawaii might end the drought honestly.

Or it could be Guam that ends it.

now how can Guam get a major HURRICANE?

[Yellow Evan]

I know odds are very very slim to none that this will happen, but what if this were to hit Hawaii as a major hurricane, would that count as ending the U.S. major hurricane drought even if in the Central Pacific?

Of course I NEVER would wish this to occur just curious.

Well, Hawaii is in the US, so yes.

There's a chance at that rate we're going that Hawaii might end the drought honestly.

Or it could be Guam that ends it.

now how can Guam get a major HURRICANE?

True, hadn't thought of that.

Fine, major hurricane or equivalent intensity.