EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:43 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 300027
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 8.0N

D. 124.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 IS BASED ON 0.5 BANDING. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS
2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#82 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:44 pm

:uarrow:

Or American Samoa
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:46 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

Or American Samoa


Forgot about that too, but that's less likely given Tahiti is the big SPAC threat in super Ninos.

Weaker Ninos, sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:47 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 07/30/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 62 69 71 71 69 66 62 62
V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 62 69 71 71 69 66 62 62
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 57 67 71 69 65 61 57 55
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 11 10 9 10 8 12 6 11 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 1 5 5 6 6 5 5 2 0
SHEAR DIR 24 359 353 357 6 359 325 306 308 315 330 309 310
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 157 159 160 157 152 149 144 138 135 132
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 81 79 75 70 69 70 73 76 76 74 72 70 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 17 19 21 21 21 21 20 19 20
850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 17 14 9 4 3 2 0 4 21 29 40
200 MB DIV 148 133 125 117 107 80 78 62 71 35 35 24 55
700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -6 -4 1 10 10 10 10 12 11 8
LAND (KM) 2284 2314 2349 2398 2456 2545 2171 1843 1575 1342 1139 1001 925
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 16 16 13 11 10 8 6 4
HEAT CONTENT 48 42 39 22 18 31 33 18 11 14 12 9 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 32. 39. 41. 41. 39. 36. 32. 32.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/30/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

SHIPS and LGEM based on the parameters may be too low. Don't be shocked at a major.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#85 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:52 pm

201507300000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 810N, 12480W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, HC, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

EP, 91, 2015073000, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1247W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 220, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

I don't think so.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#86 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:54 pm

I think they want to see deeper convection. :uarrow:
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think they want to see deeper convection. :uarrow:


There's a decent burst of deep convection.

It looks better than Bill did when it was declared. NHC classification standards are too strict IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:02 pm

18z HWRF initialized this @ 999mb. The rest of the 18z suite had 1005-1007mb. Looks spot on.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#89 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:08 pm

Eh, 35/1004 mbar is good. At least the NHC is in the right ball park in the pressure department.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#90 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:20 pm

Last edited by Yellow Evan on Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#91 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:36 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

Satellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that
the large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient
convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the
current convective organization.

The initial motion is 280/13. For the next three days or so, a
strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it
generally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the
center of the guidance envelope during this period. From 72-120
hours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough
should weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
The guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the
GFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the
Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued
west-northwestward motion. The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF
solutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease
in forward speed.

The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected
to remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for
the next 72 hours or so. This should allow for steady
strengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in
calling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a
hurricane in about 48 hours. After 72 hours, a combination of
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and
westerly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 8.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 8.9N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 9.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#92 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:40 pm

Thank you, Cycloneye!

The models that show it going NW rather than N are the ones that intensify it into a major.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:41 pm

I don't see any signs of weakening after day 3 on the SIHPS output nor CIMSS nor shown by the GFs/ECMWF.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re:

#94 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Thank you, Cycloneye!

The models that show it going NW rather than N are the ones that intensify it into a major.


No models intensify it to a major as of their latest run. Still like it's major chances.

The ones that take it W are the older/crapper ones.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#95 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 9:53 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

http://tao.ndbc.noaa.gov/refreshed/sens ... EASUREMENT

22 knts 10 min sustained, supports 30-35 knts 1 min giving it was on the south side
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: Re:

#96 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:07 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Thank you, Cycloneye!

The models that show it going NW rather than N are the ones that intensify it into a major.


No models intensify it to a major as of their latest run. Still like it's major chances.

The ones that take it W are the older/crapper ones.


Basing the intensity off the near 960mb pressures the HWRF and GFDL were showing.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#97 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:07 pm

Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: Re:

#98 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Thank you, Cycloneye!

The models that show it going NW rather than N are the ones that intensify it into a major.


No models intensify it to a major as of their latest run. Still like it's major chances.

The ones that take it W are the older/crapper ones.


Basing the intensity off the near 960mb pressures the HWRF and GFDL were showing.


Think 95-100 knts is where this will end up then. Could be stronger if the westerly shear is cooperative. Also like it's chances at an annular hurricane.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#99 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:31 pm

not going annual. Shear far too strong. Take a look at the MU precip fields. Sheared horribly once it crosses 140W

Not seeing much of a Hawaii threat at this time. Would NOT send recon into this
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

#100 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:11 am

:uarrow: That is of course assuming the GFS track will verify.

Image

0z GFS shear.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests