ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

started moving slightly to the right now..

Now, right movements aren't necessarily a good thing either as they increase the threat for Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

marked drop in the interest level on this board as this system is no longer is a U.S. threat. What a difference 36 hours makes.

[CrazyC83]

marked drop in the interest level on this board as this system is no longer is a U.S. threat. What a difference 36 hours makes.

It will likely only drop off more over the weekend, unless surprises happen.

[blp]

marked drop in the interest level on this board as this system is no longer is a U.S. threat. What a difference 36 hours makes.

Yes indeed, I am still here. I like to take it in and post less during the frenzy. Anybody have any damage reports from the Bahamas? I am very concerned about what is going on with this system just sitting over top of that area for so long. There must be extensive damage.

[NDG]

I was just thinking what would it be like without computerized weather models, people along the US east coast would had been freaking out right now just by looking at the current weather pattern, ridge to the NE of Joaquin and a trough to the NW of the storm, pointing to the East Coast as its only escape route. We would had been forecasting hurricanes at a 24 hr range only lol.

[emeraldislenc]

I am still here too
Just love this site!

[gatorcane]

What I find amazing is just how strong this trough is that is turning Joaquin. On the WV loop, it is all the way down through Mexico and into the Pacific. How about how strong this cut-off low is that showed up just at the right time to just reinforce the trough along the East Coast of the U.S? How often do you see that entering the NE Gulf this time of year? It seems these troughs just show up out of nowhere at the right time, at least for Florida the last 10 years since Wilma. Talk about some good luck for the U.S. - not so for the Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

Get to 30N and I'm good.

[Brent]

This just cracked me up:

[stormlover2013]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/up ... cebook.com

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022235
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 19 20151002
222630 2559N 07633W 5857 04515 9925 +040 +001 021014 014 022 000 00
222700 2559N 07631W 5969 04361 9928 +049 +009 020014 015 022 000 00
222730 2558N 07629W 6079 04214 9929 +060 +016 026014 014 020 001 00
222800 2557N 07627W 6191 04064 9932 +066 +016 028016 018 022 000 00
222830 2556N 07625W 6309 03906 9928 +077 +023 027018 018 023 000 00
222900 2555N 07623W 6422 03758 9927 +085 +057 027020 021 020 001 00
222930 2554N 07622W 6538 03608 9934 +087 +059 029018 021 023 000 00
223000 2553N 07620W 6650 03466 9935 +096 +045 022017 017 024 000 00
223030 2553N 07618W 6761 03326 9934 +104 +055 022020 022 024 000 00
223100 2552N 07616W 6875 03185 9933 +111 +075 030024 024 024 000 00
223130 2551N 07614W 6953 03085 9931 +112 +081 043024 025 025 000 00
223200 2550N 07613W 6967 03065 9939 +104 +078 041021 023 025 000 00
223230 2549N 07611W 6967 03067 9931 +110 +072 046025 025 026 000 03
223300 2549N 07609W 6967 03064 9928 +110 +090 047027 027 027 002 00
223330 2548N 07608W 6967 03065 9923 +110 +105 041027 029 027 003 01
223400 2547N 07606W 6966 03067 9919 +119 +068 040024 027 026 002 00
223430 2546N 07604W 6967 03065 9917 +123 +057 046023 023 025 001 00
223500 2545N 07603W 6969 03062 9913 +127 +055 042022 023 026 001 00
223530 2544N 07601W 6967 03063 9919 +120 +078 043021 022 025 001 00
223600 2544N 07559W 6967 03064 9915 +124 +065 047021 021 025 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Recon back into Joaquin. I would think flights will continue until at least Sunday as long as SOME land is threatened.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022245
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 20 20151002
223630 2543N 07557W 6967 03063 9919 +117 +074 040023 025 023 002 00
223700 2542N 07556W 6968 03062 9920 +119 +064 040025 025 025 001 00
223730 2540N 07555W 6967 03062 9919 +118 +062 040024 025 027 002 00
223800 2539N 07553W 6966 03062 9913 +122 +062 034026 029 028 003 00
223830 2538N 07552W 6963 03063 9919 +112 +093 034026 029 028 003 00
223900 2536N 07550W 6966 03062 9917 +113 +103 034023 023 028 003 01
223930 2535N 07549W 6967 03058 9909 +117 +072 026024 025 025 002 01
224000 2534N 07547W 6965 03059 9904 +125 +080 032026 026 025 001 00
224030 2533N 07546W 6967 03057 9908 +118 +100 028027 027 025 001 00
224100 2531N 07544W 6969 03054 9915 +110 +107 026027 028 026 001 00
224130 2530N 07543W 6967 03053 9914 +112 +088 027026 027 026 001 00
224200 2529N 07542W 6967 03056 9913 +113 +094 033027 028 028 000 00
224230 2527N 07540W 6969 03051 9910 +113 +088 037026 026 026 001 03
224300 2526N 07539W 6966 03053 9916 +111 +072 043027 028 027 001 00
224330 2525N 07537W 6967 03051 9915 +109 +075 043027 028 028 001 00
224400 2524N 07536W 6970 03046 9909 +115 +071 041026 026 027 001 00
224430 2522N 07534W 6968 03048 9907 +117 +069 040026 027 027 001 00
224500 2521N 07533W 6967 03047 9907 +115 +073 034025 025 028 001 00
224530 2520N 07532W 6967 03048 9908 +115 +072 036026 026 029 001 00
224600 2519N 07530W 6970 03043 9907 +115 +069 041026 027 030 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022255
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 21 20151002
224630 2517N 07529W 6966 03048 9900 +119 +067 041028 028 032 001 00
224700 2516N 07527W 6967 03046 9900 +117 +067 037028 029 030 002 00
224730 2515N 07526W 6964 03048 9903 +115 +070 035027 028 029 001 00
224800 2513N 07525W 6968 03043 9900 +119 +067 044028 028 029 002 00
224830 2512N 07523W 6966 03043 9895 +118 +066 044027 028 031 002 00
224900 2511N 07522W 6967 03039 9902 +109 +075 036027 028 032 001 00
224930 2510N 07520W 6966 03037 9892 +117 +070 044029 030 033 001 00
225000 2508N 07519W 6967 03032 9881 +123 +063 041030 031 032 002 00
225030 2507N 07517W 6966 03034 9888 +116 +070 036031 032 033 001 00
225100 2506N 07516W 6967 03028 9887 +111 +074 034033 033 033 002 00
225130 2504N 07515W 6967 03028 9887 +111 +073 031033 033 033 002 00
225200 2503N 07513W 6966 03026 9882 +115 +069 035034 035 032 001 00
225230 2502N 07512W 6967 03025 9883 +112 +076 032035 035 033 001 00
225300 2501N 07510W 6966 03026 9883 +111 +075 034036 037 033 001 00
225330 2459N 07509W 6967 03024 9883 +110 +075 034035 036 034 001 00
225400 2458N 07507W 6969 03019 9889 +104 +081 033037 038 034 001 00
225430 2457N 07506W 6966 03019 9881 +106 +086 035037 038 033 002 00
225500 2455N 07505W 6967 03014 9872 +109 +086 034037 037 033 002 03
225530 2454N 07503W 6966 03013 9873 +107 +091 034038 039 036 001 00
225600 2453N 07502W 6966 03008 9866 +108 +087 035040 041 037 001 00
$$
;

[becca1695]

Total weather newbie here (so don't listen to anything I say)... Why does the water vapor loop look as though the storm is going east and sort of south and what will prevent it from going south and then west again?

[floridasun78]

i feel bad for bahamas put us in usa were luck as trough save USA from getting a other sandy type storm east coast was already having issue with bad weather to get hurr over big flood ecmwf was right move hurr out to see but now Bermuda may need watch hurr doing weekend

[floridasun78]

Total weather newbie here (so don't listen to anything I say)... Why does the water vapor loop look as though the storm is going east and sort of south and what will prevent it from going south and then west again?

this now fail trip out to sea only Bermuda need watch doing weekend

[floridasun78]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Total weather newbie here (so don't listen to anything I say)... Why does the water vapor loop look as though the storm is going east and sort of south and what will prevent it from going south and then west again?

this now fail trip out to sea only Bermuda need watch doing weekend

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 022305
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20151002
225630 2452N 07500W 6964 03004 9863 +106 +090 034041 041 037 002 00
225700 2450N 07459W 6963 03002 9863 +101 +094 032043 044 038 001 00
225730 2449N 07457W 6970 02990 9857 +103 +095 033042 043 041 002 00
225800 2448N 07456W 6965 02995 9853 +106 +085 032040 041 041 001 00
225830 2446N 07455W 6965 02990 9837 +115 +082 027042 043 039 002 00
225900 2445N 07453W 6965 02986 9831 +118 +075 031046 048 042 003 00
225930 2444N 07452W 6968 02981 9828 +117 +076 034048 049 045 002 00
230000 2442N 07450W 6962 02982 9826 +114 +088 033050 051 047 002 00
230030 2441N 07449W 6967 02973 9810 +125 +086 035052 054 048 003 00
230100 2440N 07447W 6967 02965 9796 +131 +084 035054 054 050 003 00
230130 2439N 07446W 6965 02961 9781 +136 +082 036053 055 052 003 00
230200 2437N 07445W 6980 02935 9772 +137 +086 038050 054 054 003 00
230230 2436N 07443W 6965 02945 9766 +135 +090 043052 055 056 004 00
230300 2435N 07442W 6969 02928 9754 +131 +094 043056 058 057 004 00
230330 2434N 07440W 6970 02918 9746 +125 +110 048057 060 061 003 01
230400 2432N 07439W 6962 02912 9729 +128 +119 046061 063 063 005 00
230430 2431N 07438W 6973 02886 9716 +136 +116 046064 067 061 005 00
230500 2430N 07436W 6963 02879 9698 +128 +125 043066 069 063 006 00
230530 2429N 07435W 6978 02845 9689 +129 +127 041067 071 064 008 00
230600 2427N 07434W 6956 02851 9646 +135 +118 050075 077 070 005 00
$$
;

Looks to have weakened substantially, possibly due to structural changes or upwelling.

[Nimbus]

From the 5pm NHC advisory

"While this occurs, a mid- to
upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move
west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin."

That could cause problems for Bermuda.

So does this (currently) eastern ULL end up along the coast of the US?