EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2016072000, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1095W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 90, 2016072006, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1095W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 90, 2016072012, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1095W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS013, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
EP, 90, 2016072018, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1095W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located
almost 1000 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organzed since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
some additional development of this system during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[gatorcane]

Saved loop

[1900hurricane]

Easterly shear might be a bit much, but if this can manage to develop and stay far enough south and west away from 99E, 90E has the most heat laden waters in the EPac, untouched from previous upwelling.

Yeah, that's a lot of conditions.

[Yellow Evan]

Conditions on paper appear favorable, with fairly low shear and warm water but these sort of storms tend to be fickle. TABM track may be a bit north, we'll see.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP902016  07/21/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    35    43    51    59    63    65    66    66    67
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    35    43    51    59    63    65    66    66    67
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    26    27    29    32    36    41    45    47    48    48    49
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10    11    11    12    10     9     8     5     5     6     9     9     2
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -1    -3    -4    -4    -4    -5    -3    -2     0    -4    -4     1
SHEAR DIR         54    60    86   104   110   105   114   142   181   214   218   227   163
SST (C)         28.6  28.6  28.6  28.4  28.2  27.9  27.9  27.6  27.0  26.6  27.3  27.5  27.3
POT. INT. (KT)   148   149   150   149   147   145   145   142   136   133   140   142   139
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     7     7     7     8     7     6     5     5     6     7
700-500 MB RH     74    75    75    74    74    73    68    65    61    61    58    57    58
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     6     6     7     7     8     8     9    10    12    13    15    17
850 MB ENV VOR    33    27    22    23    20     1    16    24    38    49    44    47    44
200 MB DIV        47    42    45    52    74    63    62    34    42    50    26    34    43
700-850 TADV      -2    -2     0     2     0     0     1     4     4     3     3    -1    -7
LAND (KM)       1222  1231  1225  1232  1249  1293  1379  1529  1741  1981  2270  1927  1637
LAT (DEG N)      9.6   9.8  10.3  10.9  11.6  12.7  13.8  14.5  15.1  15.6  15.9  15.5  14.5
LONG(DEG W)    110.3 110.8 111.5 112.4 113.4 115.9 118.9 122.0 125.4 129.0 132.9 137.1 140.3
STM SPEED (KT)     4     7    10    11    13    15    15    16    17    18    20    19    15
HEAT CONTENT      32    31    25    20    15    22    23     8     7     8    19    21     6

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  2      CX,CY:  -1/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  698  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            1.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   7.  13.  20.  25.  27.  29.  30.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   7.   5.   3.   1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   2.   4.   6.   7.   9.  11.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  10.  18.  26.  34.  38.  40.  41.  41.  42.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:    9.6   110.3

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST     07/21/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   123.7      40.3  to  144.5       0.80         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    24.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.32         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    23.3      38.9  to    2.1       0.42         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    11.0      18.9  to    1.4       0.45         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    52.0     -11.0  to  135.3       0.43         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    55.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.82         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     2.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.00           0.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.2%    3.6%    3.5%    0.6%    0.2%    3.5%    4.9%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    3.5%    1.0%    0.2%    0.0%    0.1%    2.0%
   Consensus:     0.4%    2.4%    1.5%    0.3%    0.1%    1.2%    2.3%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST     07/21/16  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

  21/1200 UTC   10.0N    113.7W       T1.5/1.5         90E -- East Pacific

[hurricanes1234]

Interesting how models are forecasting a stronger system out of this than 99E although 99E is getting organised faster.

[1900hurricane]

It certainly has developed a nice looking curved band recently.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm interested to see what becomes of this.

The question is if it'll be able to pass over the warmest waters and avoid the cool wake, as well as escape the shear from the system to the east...

[cycloneye]

80%-90%

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized this
morning in association with an area of low pressure located about
900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. While environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a slight
increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[gatorcane]

[1900hurricane]

Now classified as 08E.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212037
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

An ASCAT-B pass at 1742Z showed that the area of low pressure
located well southwest of Mexico now has a well-defined center, and
the geostationary imagery shows a curved convective band wrapping
nearly halfway around the system. Given this, the low is now
classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt based on the ASCAT data, which is also in agreement with the
latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The depression will be moving over
SSTs of 28C or higher for the next couple of days, but will also be
in a moderate easterly to northeasterly shear environment during
that time. Given these conditions, gradual intensification is
forecast in the short term. The cyclone is forecast to peak in
about 72 hours before it moves over cooler waters and into a more
stable environment, which should result in slow weakening. The NHC
intensity prediction is close to the intensity consensus through the
forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the
recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism for
the first 2-3 days of the forecast period will be a large
subtropical ridge that will migrate westward from central North
America over the eastern Pacific. This should keep the cyclone
moving generally west-northwestward for the first 48 hours or so.
After that time, there is an increase in the spread of the guidance.
The ECMWF and HWRF show the cyclone turning more poleward into a
weakness in the ridge caused by an upper-level low, with the ECMWF
showing some northward motion possibly due to the influence of
Tropical Storm Fred to the the northeast. The GFS, GEFS mean, and
COAMPS-TC show a more westward track with the cyclone staying south
of the ridge. For now the NHC track forecast is down the middle of
the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model
consensus. Given the large spread in the guidance, the track
forecast uncertainty is higher than usual late in the forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 10.8N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.6N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[gatorcane]

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh! Just twelve hours ago, these two systems were invests with medium and high chances of development. I checked the outlook page not too long ago, only to see that both invests formed. Currently, throughout the East and Central Pacific we have four tropical cyclones active simultaneously.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing they gave this 08E only because 07E became Frank immediately. Since they had the identical time as genesis, they could have been given either designation.

[dexterlabio]

Eight named storms in a single month in the EPAC, is this a first?

[Hurricaneman]

Eight named storms in a single month in the EPAC, is this a first?

That would be the most July has ever seen so not sure of all time but for the month of July it would be a record

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Visible satellite imagery and a 2309 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass
showed that the depression's center of circulation was located near
the northeastern edge of the cloud mass, indicative that some
northeasterly shear is impinging on the cloud pattern. The Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates have not changed during the past 6
hours, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Light to
moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next
couple of days as the depression traverses warm water. Gradual
strengthening seems reasonable and this forecast trend is supported
by most of the statistical-dynamical guidance. Beyond day 3,
however, the depression is expected to encounter decreasing SSTs of
below 25C, and move into a more stable thermodynamic environment
which should influence slow weakening through the remainder of the
period. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and
is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model guidance.

Conventional satellite position fixes and a couple of microwave
overpasses yield an initial motion estimate of 295/11 kt, south of
a strong subtropical ridge along 29N originating from Texas/northern
Mexico. This ridge is expected to steer the cyclone generally
west-northwestward through the 96 hour period. Afterward, the
global and regional model guidance still shows increasing spread
with time. The ECMWF is basically the outlier this evening, showing
a much more north-northwestward turn into a break in the ridge
created by a combination of a digging upper-level low, and Tropical
Storm Frank to the northeast of the depression. All the other
guidance agree more with a gradual turn toward the northwest through
day 5. The official forecast splits these two solutions, but is
hedged a bit toward the model cluster reflecting a less poleward
turn.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 11.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 12.3N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.8N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.4N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 18.3N 129.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Extratropical94]

Eight named storms in a single month in the EPAC, is this a first?

That would be the most July has ever seen so not sure of all time but for the month of July it would be a record

August 1968 had 9 storms (8 + 1 crossing over from the WPAC), but for any other month 8 would be a new record. But keep in mind that 08E (future Georgette) is only the 7th storm this July.
A July with 7 storms also happened in 1985 and 2015 (2015 had 3 out of 7 in the CPAC though).