BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016
...MADELINE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.9N 146.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County.
HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016
Madeline continues on a rapid intensification trend that began
yesterday evening. Current satellite images depict a strong and well-
organized major hurricane, with clouds having cleared the eye a
short while ago. A ring of deep convection totally encircles the
newly-cleared eye, with eyewall cloud top temperatures on the order
of -70 degrees Celsius. The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from
5.5/102 kt to 6.0/115 kt, and ADT from UW-CIMSS indicated a current
intensity near 110 kt. Based on the improved satellite presentation
from the previous advisory, and a blend of the fix data, the initial
intensity for this advisory has been increased to 110 kt. Hurricane
hunters from the 53rd Weather Recognizance Squadron are slated to
begin flying investigative flights into Madeline Tuesday morning,
which will give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual
intensity and size.
The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 290/09 kt, and
little change to the overall track philosophy is presented
by the latest model guidance, despite a somewhat dynamic steering
pattern. Madeline is currently on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer trough lies far to the north,
and the cyclone continues to track toward a weakness in the ridge.
Madeline is expected to move on this general trajectory into early
Tuesday, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid-
level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone
as a strengthening mid-level high replaces the trough. This is still
expected to impart a turn toward the west and west-southwest as
Madeline approaches the Big Island late Tuesday and Wednesday. In
the later periods of the forecast, a west-northwest turn is expected
as Madeline approaches the southwestern edge of the mid-level high.
The distance between Madeline and east Pacific Hurricane Lester has
been gradually decreasing, and forecast models indicate that the two
cyclones may become sufficiently close at the end of the forecast
period for some interaction. The updated track forecast is close to
the previous and very close to the latest multi-model consensus
TVCN.
While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a
high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline
Tuesday night and Wednesday, introducing increasing southwesterly
shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is
expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend. In the mean time,
relatively light shear and warm SSTs are expected to allow Madeline
to maintain its current intensity, although there may be some
fluctuations. The updated intensity forecast follows the trends
presented by the previous forecast, and closely follows the
intensity consensus IVCN as well as the LGEM guidance.
Users are reminded to not focus too closely on the
deterministic forecast track, and that hazards associated with
hurricanes can extend well away from the center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 18.9N 146.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 19.2N 147.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 19.2N 149.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 18.8N 151.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 18.5N 153.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 18.2N 157.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 18.6N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 19.5N 167.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Birchard
