CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

18z GFDL.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 14, 2016082900, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1427W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 PM HST SUN AUG 28 2016

There has been little change in the cloud pattern around Madeline
over the past several hours with just brief bursts of colder cloud
tops seen in IR imagery. Latest Dvorak intensity estimates from the
fix centers came in at 3.5 or 55 kt from JTWC and SAB and 4.0 or 65
kt from PHFO. Thus have kept the intensity of Madeline at 55 kt with
this advisory package.

Madeline continues to track along the southwest edge of a
subtropical ridge. A narrow ridge aloft separates Madeline from
a trough to the northwest. The global models are in good agreement
showing the trough lifting out to the northeast in a couple of days
as a ridge builds along 160W. As that ridge builds, Madeline should
curve toward the west, then slightly south of west with a slight
increase in forward speed. The latest forecast track has been
shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast track and
lies close to HWRF and consensus guidance.

Model guidance indicates that there is a small window for
intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours as vertical wind
shear remains low and warm sea surface temperatures lie along its
path. Beyond 36 hours, guidance indicates that west to southwest
vertical wind shear will increase. The latest intensity forecast
follows closely with the previous forecast bringing Madeline up to
hurricane strength during the 24 to 36 hour time frame before a slow
weakening trend begins. This follows closely with most of the
reliable guidance.

The confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3, so it is
too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the
Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to
remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
central Pacific tropical cyclones is around 185 and 250 miles,
respectively.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.4N 143.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.1N 144.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.8N 146.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 19.1N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 19.2N 149.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 18.7N 154.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 17.9N 158.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Burke

[Alyono]

This is a hurricane now. Not sure why the winds were not increased. A ragged eye has appeared at times

[Kingarabian]

This is a hurricane now. Not sure why the winds were not increased. A ragged eye has appeared at times

You think it'll climb high enough to affect the big island?

[Alyono]

This is a hurricane now. Not sure why the winds were not increased. A ragged eye has appeared at times

You think it'll climb high enough to affect the big island?

It's probably going to affect it. Question is do we get a brush or a landfall?

[Kingarabian]

TXPN24 KNES 290559
TCSCNP

A. 14E (MADELINE)

B. 29/0530Z

C. 17.6N

D. 143.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...MG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT OF
4.5. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Alyono]

I'd expect a Hurricane Watch to be issued in about 24 to 36 hours

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 290840
TCDCP5

HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 28 2016

Madeleine has become more organized over the past 12 hours, with an
eye feature forming within the central dense overcast and becoming
apparent this evening. Little or no shear deformation is noted and
outflow is particularly good to the north. Subjective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are 4.5, 77 kt, from all three
satellite analysis centers. Given the greatly improved
organization, eye feature and unanimous intensity estimates,
Madeline is upgraded to a hurricane and assigned an initial
intensity of 75 kt for this advisory cycle.

An upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to
allow Madeline to gain latitude as this system tracks along the
southern flank of the subtropical ridge. Global models show this
upper trough will lift northward through 72 hours, allowing the
ridge to steer Madeline along a more westerly track beyond 12
hours. Interestingly, the upper trough is then forecast to begin
digging southward again by 72 hours a bit farther to the east,
causing some of the track guidance to deflect Madeline to the west
northwest again near 120 hours, after this system has passed the
Hawaiian Islands. Track guidance is reassuringly tightly packed
through 72 hours with even GFDL, which had been the right outlier
for the guidance we most commonly use, now taking Madeline south of
the Big Island. There is little change in the forecast track, which
lies south of GFDL but just north of most of the consensus guidance.

SHIPS probability for rapid intensification is over 30 percent
through 24 hours. This aligns with most intensity guidance showing
Madeline reaching peak intensity by day 2, then suffering a gradual
decline as SSTs drop and shear begins to increase. Our intensity
forecast tops Madeline out at 85 kt at 24 hours, followed by a
decline through day 5. While depicted as stronger than last time at
all tau beyond day 2, the rate of weakening beyond day 2 was
actually increased with this package to keep pace with SHIPS and
IVCN consensus.

As usual, the confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3,
so it is difficult to determine what impacts Madeline could have on
the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important
to remember that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
central Pacific tropical cyclones is around 185 and 250 miles,
respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.8N 143.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.4N 145.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 18.9N 146.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.1N 148.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 18.5N 154.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.6N 159.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 16.7N 163.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

[Kingarabian]

If this continues to move at 300 degrees and the same pace it may not clear Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Models are subject to large errors

Big changes to the HWRF, has landfall on the big island:



GFDL has a dooms day event for the Puna area of the Big Island:


Both models are very identical track wise. GFS and Euro ensembles continue to show a good amount of spread with many ensembles showing a Big Island landfall similar to the GFDL and HWRF or a brush.

Edit : 06z GFS ensembles in much better agreement now showing Madeline safely passing the Big Island to the south.

[Blown Away]

Crazy activity for Hawaii...

[Kingarabian]

Crazy activity for Hawaii...

The HWRF and the GFDL models show Florida and Hawaii getting hit nearly at the same time.

[Kingarabian]

Barring any internal disruptions, Madeline should be closing on major hurricane status before the next advisory.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 17:59:19 N Lon : 144:03:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.5mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -33.8C Cloud Region Temp : -58.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF agree on a southwestward dip before it reaches the Big Island. As long as it's actually moving southwestward, it'll probably curve around the Big Island given the topography. BTW, the 6z GFS has Madeline near Japan by day 16.

[talkon]

14E MADELINE 160829 1200 18.0N 144.2W EPAC 85 975

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  MADELINE    EP142016  08/29/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    85    94    97    98    97    89    78    67    58    54    51    49    47
V (KT) LAND       85    94    97    98    97    89    78    67    58    54    51    49    47
V (KT) LGEM       85    96   102   103   100    93    83    74    65    59    57    58    60
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         0     1     3     5     5     7    14    14    13     9     9     3    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2     0     2     4     5     5     5     7     3     2    -4    -3    -6
SHEAR DIR        341    72   171   196   237   241   250   252   251   220   247   171   220
SST (C)         27.2  27.1  26.9  26.8  26.6  26.7  27.0  27.3  27.7  28.1  28.3  28.4  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   135   134   132   131   129   130   134   137   141   145   148   149   149
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.2   0.7   0.7   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     7     7     8     8     9     9     8     9     9
700-500 MB RH     46    44    43    42    40    39    38    37    37    39    42    42    40
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    19    18    19    20    19    18    16    14    13    12    12    11
850 MB ENV VOR    35    33    36    35     9     5    16    30    34    53    58    57    47
200 MB DIV        38    31    35    29    11     5    18    28    10    -1   -15   -15    -8
700-850 TADV       1     5     7     7     6     0    -2     0     0     3    -3     0     3
LAND (KM)       1127  1033   940   843   746   548   344   152    69   255   476   624   776
LAT (DEG N)     18.0  18.3  18.6  18.8  19.0  19.0  18.8  18.6  18.3  17.8  17.3  16.8  16.5
LONG(DEG W)    144.2 145.0 145.9 146.8 147.7 149.6 151.6 153.7 155.8 157.9 160.0 162.2 164.4
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9     9     9     9     9    10    10    10    10    10    11    11
HEAT CONTENT      12     9     5     4     7     8    10    17    31    58    33    34    67

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/  9      CX,CY:  -7/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  55            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  608  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           37.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   5.   5.   5.   5.   6.   6.   6.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  PERSISTENCE            8.  11.  12.  11.   8.   5.   2.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   0.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -7.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           9.  12.  13.  12.   4.  -7. -18. -27. -31. -34. -36. -38.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   85. LAT, LON:   18.0   144.2

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE   08/29/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    30.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.86         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    47.5      40.3  to  144.5       0.07         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     7.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.10         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.1      38.9  to    2.1       0.78         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     3.0      18.9  to    1.4       0.91         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    85.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.64         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    28.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.27         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   783.0     638.0  to  -68.2       0.00           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.2       2.1  to   -1.7       0.50         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     9.5      81.4  to    0.0       0.88         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  48% is   7.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  32% is   2.5 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    48.0%   31.8%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    20.5%   24.0%   19.5%   17.1%   10.3%    4.8%    0.8%
    Bayesian:     0.8%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    23.1%   18.7%    6.5%    5.7%    3.4%    1.6%    0.3%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE   08/29/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Ntxw]

The buzz in the EPAC is with lester right now but this is on the verge of a major. Twins later today possibly. Wouldn't it be crazy if they were cat 4 twins? No 2015 triplets but wild no less

[cycloneye]

TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016

...MADELINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 144.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Madeline.



HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016

Madeline's cloud-covered eye re-emerged by 1200 UTC with a
cooler-topped and increasingly well-formed eyewall. Organization
continues to improve, with little or no shear deformation present.
Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 5.0/90
kt from SAB and PHFO to 4.5/77 kt from JTWC, while UW-CIMSS provided
an estimated intensity of 81 kt. We will compromise and assign
Madeline an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory cycle,
representing continued rapid intensification of this system.

The steering mechanism for Madeline has not changed since last
evening. An upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
continues to allow Madeline to gain latitude as this system tracks
along the southern flank of the subtropical ridge. Global models
show this upper trough will lift northward through 72 hours,
gradually allowing the ridge to steer Madeline along a more westerly
to west-southwesterly track. This appears to be happening already,
with 6 hour motion noticeably to the left of the west-northwest 12
hour motion. By 72 hours, the upper trough is forecast to dig
southward again, prompting most track guidance toward westerly
to west-northwesterly motion again on days 4 and 5. Track guidance
remains tightly packed through 72 hours, depicting a shallow S-curve
westward then west southwestward through 72 hours, followed by the
gradual turn westward to west northwestward afterwards. The forecast
track follows the previous one closely, but was altered slightly
south at 72 hours, then slightly north at 96 and 120 hours to more
closely follow consensus guidance.

While SHIPS probability for rapid intensification remains over 30
percent through 24 hours, most intensity guidance shows more modest
strengthening by day 2. We cap Madeline at 90 kt at 12 and 24 hours,
then introduce gradual weakening through day 5 as shear increases.
Our intensity forecast closely follows IVCN consensus through day 2,
then depicts a weakening rate similar to that shown by LGEM
afterwards.

The forecast track depicts Madeline passing just south of
the Big Island of Hawaii as a hurricane on day 3. Average day 3
forecast track error is around 130 miles, so this would be a good
time to remind users to consider the error cone associated with each
forecast and not just the black line depicting the forecast track of
the system center. Also, tropical systems can be quite large and may
affect areas far from the system center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.2N 144.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.6N 146.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 19.0N 147.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 19.0N 149.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 151.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 18.1N 155.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 17.7N 160.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.6N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 18:05:20 N Lon : 144:30:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.5mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.4

Center Temp : -55.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS