ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

In a rare occurrence, the current NASA Global Hawk UAS mission, at a very high altitude, has a goal of sampling around both T.D. Eight and T.D. Nine. It is scheduled to land back at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia at 6pm Tuesday.

"Global Hawk: Is scheduled for a flight taking off at 2200 UTC (6PM Eastern) from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, VA. The goal is to fly over TD9 and TD8. This flight is part of NOAA’s Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) field campaign."

From: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

It has only dropped one sonde so far, but the aircraft has the capability of dropping around 90 I believe, so there could be a lot of data for the models in the next 24 hours.

NOAA / NASA SHOUT Project:

Website: http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/
Calendar: http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/dailysched.html
SHOUT Visualization Viewer (mapped microwave, radar & Skew-T): http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/viz/?active=avaps
NASA Aircraft Tracker (live NASA872 flight path): http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... 872&zoom=6

[HurriGuy]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?

Debby in 2012. But that was a very hard call

[Blinhart]

Why is it taking so long for the NHC to come out with the discussion on this on, since they have come out with all the others?

[bevgo]

It is out

[NDG]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?

I believe Mitch was another one.

[HurriGuy]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/770441654251630592

2am take off ? 0200z is not 2am ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/prod_overview/local_gmt_conversion.shtml

Military Time uses L.

So yes 2AM

[Blinhart]

It is out

Not on their website.

[Blinhart]

OK I had to click on it even though it said 5pm, it was the 11pm one. How can they say it is still at 23.9N

[indianforever]

Opinion on the growing chances this storm staying on a westward track?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Since the previous advisory, the depression's convective pattern has
improved somewhat with the development of a cluster of deep
convection with tops to -80C having developed near and also east
through south of the center. Reports from nearby ships WAHV, J8NY,
and C6CL6, along with reconnaissance data indicate that the
low-level circulation is slowly improving. The central pressure of
1003 mb is based on a recent NOAA dropsonde report of 1005 mb with
20 kt of wind just north of the center. Since no winds of tropical
storm force were sampled, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.

Similar to this time last night, the cyclone has made a jog to the
west during the earlier convective hiatus period. However, the past
couple of dropsonde reports suggest that the depression has resumed
a longer term motion of 280/06 kt. There is little change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Other than having to adjust the
forecast track southward slightly through 48 hours due to the more
southerly initial position, the previous advisory track remains
unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to move slowly around the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over southern
Florida for the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, the depression is
expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida ahead
of a shortwave trough that is forecast to dig southeastward into the
southeastern United States and northern Gulf Mexico. The new NHC
track forecast lies between a blend of the GFS-ECMWF solutions and
the consensus model TVCN.

Data from the NOAA aircraft on its final outbound leg, along with
the latest 00Z upper-air observations indicate that mid-level
moisture north and northeast of the cyclone has increased since
yesterday. However, water vapor imagery and upper-air data still
indicate that very dry air lies just west of the cyclone across the
central and western Gulf of Mexico. The global and regional models
continue to indicate that some of that drier air will be entrained
into the western part of the cyclone's circulation by 24-36 hours,
offsetting the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern and
very warm SSTs of more than 30 deg C. Therefore, only gradual
intensification is expected during the next 48 hours or so. When
the cyclone nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level
winds are expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast lies close to the previous advisory and consensus model
IVCN.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast by tomorrow
morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 23.9N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 24.9N 87.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 25.8N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 27.2N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 30.1N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/0000Z 33.1N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 04/0000Z 35.8N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Zanthe]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?

I believe Mitch was another one.

Debbie, tbh.

[SouthFLTropics]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?

Mitch 98'...was supposed to go to the GOM and went South into Central America instead.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty good discussion. however given someof the recon data would not be surprised if the next recon found the center farther south.

[HurriGuy]

NHC said they adjusted track south. Must have been just barely.

[hohnywx]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?

Mitch 98'...was supposed to go to the GOM and went South into Central America instead.

Would certainly hope our forecasting abilities have improved in the past 18 years.

[psyclone]

Opinion on the growing chances this storm staying on a westward track?

You just got the latest track from the best in the business. It didn't change a lick.

[robbielyn]

So in a nutshell no changes in track or intensity. trough supposed to still pick it up and dry air to the west and then once storm gets near landfall trough causes shear to keep it in check.

[stormreader]

You know this Depression is looking quite a bit better tonight. And, as has been said, the upper environment (outflow-anti-cyclone) seems much more positive for development. I'm thinking that even without a scheduled recon (and I don't know when that would be), the NHC might upgrade tomorrow morning to Tropical Storm. Wonder what the latest T numbers look like??

[1900hurricane]

Has there ever been a storm that has went completely opposite than what was forecasted?

I believe Mitch was another one.

Isidore '02 is another (although not a perfect 180*). It was originally expected to move towards Texas but instead drifted south over the Yucatan Peninsula, destroying the core. Tropical forecasting has improved considerably since that time, but weak steering environments remain tricky.

[Blinhart]

You know the saying "I will believe it when I see it", that is what I'm thinking about the forecast of this system. I don't know if I can even believe it will intensify any.