You all have seen my thoughts on this thread, so I won't dwell on them. I have stood by since early Saturday that this has been either a TD or minimal TS.
This looks really good this morning and this has to be Hermine real soon.
ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
I think Recon will find Hermine out of this to be honest...and I agree it has probably been a TD or TS since about 1200Z yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
It wouldn't surprise if they go ahead with upgrading 91L to a TD and no more than that based on 12z Dvorak, unless ASCAT catches a good picture of it before the advisory is out. They will probably leave it to the Recon to see if it is a TS or not.
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
BREAKING NEWS: Now TD8 - we caught this one and the NHC agrees!
Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent
Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
https://twitter.com/reaganmatt/status/769894668586844160
Between Hawaii, TD8, 99L and the wave coming off Africa... yeah.
Between Hawaii, TD8, 99L and the wave coming off Africa... yeah.
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cycloneye
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ATL: EIGHT - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 70.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor
the progress of the depression. A tropical storm watch may be
required for part of this area later today.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
will pass offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening in possible in the next couple of days, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 41048 is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
The area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing
intermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so,
and the convection has increased markedly since 06Z. Given this,
and the well-defined center shown by an overnight ASCAT pass,
advisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the depression this afternoon.
The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly shear
expected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48
hours. As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the
official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical
storm in the next day or two. After that time, the global models
show the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of
the northeastern United States. However, there is some disagreement
in when this will occur, with the GFS showing the cyclone
dissipating in about 3 days, and the ECMWF hanging onto it until
around day 5. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows dissipation
after day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain.
The depression is currently situated south of a mid-level ridge that
extends from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/08. The ridge is forecast to
break down and shift eastward during the next 2-3 days, which should
result in the cyclone gradually turning poleward and then recurving
during the next 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation. This
forecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of
North Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that
area later today.
Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 32.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 33.6N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 34.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 39.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 70.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor
the progress of the depression. A tropical storm watch may be
required for part of this area later today.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
will pass offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening in possible in the next couple of days, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 41048 is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
The area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing
intermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so,
and the convection has increased markedly since 06Z. Given this,
and the well-defined center shown by an overnight ASCAT pass,
advisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the depression this afternoon.
The environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for
intensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly shear
expected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48
hours. As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the
official forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical
storm in the next day or two. After that time, the global models
show the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of
the northeastern United States. However, there is some disagreement
in when this will occur, with the GFS showing the cyclone
dissipating in about 3 days, and the ECMWF hanging onto it until
around day 5. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows dissipation
after day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain.
The depression is currently situated south of a mid-level ridge that
extends from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic, and
the initial motion estimate is 280/08. The ridge is forecast to
break down and shift eastward during the next 2-3 days, which should
result in the cyclone gradually turning poleward and then recurving
during the next 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation. This
forecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of
North Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that
area later today.
Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 32.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 33.6N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 34.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 39.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor
the progress of the depression. A tropical storm watch may be
required for part of this area later today
the progress of the depression. A tropical storm watch may be
required for part of this area later today
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
One of the less than 5 days warning storms I'm worried about. Seems like the models can't really handle the in close development very well.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon
The Recon going into TD 8 has taken off from Biloxi.
F303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20160828
143730 3032N 08815W 5131 05700 0320 -049 //// 120014 015 /// /// 05
143800 3033N 08813W 5053 05823 0328 -056 //// 121013 013 /// /// 05
143830 3033N 08810W 4972 05949 0335 -064 //// 117012 013 /// /// 05
143900 3033N 08808W 4889 06079 0343 -067 //// 114011 012 /// /// 05
143930 3034N 08806W 4810 06208 0351 -074 -078 120010 011 /// /// 05
144000 3034N 08804W 4740 06324 0358 -078 -086 113009 010 /// /// 03
144030 3035N 08802W 4674 06431 0365 -083 -098 111007 008 /// /// 03
144100 3035N 08800W 4604 06549 0372 -091 -111 119008 008 /// /// 03
144130 3035N 08758W 4538 06658 0378 -098 -122 125010 011 /// /// 03
144200 3036N 08756W 4465 06784 0385 -109 -130 122011 011 /// /// 03
144230 3036N 08753W 4405 06889 0393 -109 -155 119011 012 /// /// 03
144300 3037N 08751W 4352 06982 0400 -113 -175 120011 011 /// /// 03
144330 3037N 08749W 4303 07069 0404 -122 -183 122010 011 /// /// 03
144400 3038N 08747W 4252 07158 0408 -127 -191 127011 011 /// /// 03
144430 3038N 08745W 4205 07243 0414 -133 -198 132012 013 /// /// 03
144500 3038N 08742W 4152 07342 0421 -140 -207 129013 013 /// /// 03
144530 3039N 08740W 4117 07407 0427 -145 -213 135012 013 /// /// 03
144600 3039N 08738W 4097 07445 0430 -150 -218 138012 013 /// /// 03
144630 3040N 08736W 4095 07445 0430 -151 -218 137013 013 /// /// 03
144700 3041N 08733W 4097 07443 0429 -150 -218 135013 014 /// /// 03
$$
;
F303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20160828
143730 3032N 08815W 5131 05700 0320 -049 //// 120014 015 /// /// 05
143800 3033N 08813W 5053 05823 0328 -056 //// 121013 013 /// /// 05
143830 3033N 08810W 4972 05949 0335 -064 //// 117012 013 /// /// 05
143900 3033N 08808W 4889 06079 0343 -067 //// 114011 012 /// /// 05
143930 3034N 08806W 4810 06208 0351 -074 -078 120010 011 /// /// 05
144000 3034N 08804W 4740 06324 0358 -078 -086 113009 010 /// /// 03
144030 3035N 08802W 4674 06431 0365 -083 -098 111007 008 /// /// 03
144100 3035N 08800W 4604 06549 0372 -091 -111 119008 008 /// /// 03
144130 3035N 08758W 4538 06658 0378 -098 -122 125010 011 /// /// 03
144200 3036N 08756W 4465 06784 0385 -109 -130 122011 011 /// /// 03
144230 3036N 08753W 4405 06889 0393 -109 -155 119011 012 /// /// 03
144300 3037N 08751W 4352 06982 0400 -113 -175 120011 011 /// /// 03
144330 3037N 08749W 4303 07069 0404 -122 -183 122010 011 /// /// 03
144400 3038N 08747W 4252 07158 0408 -127 -191 127011 011 /// /// 03
144430 3038N 08745W 4205 07243 0414 -133 -198 132012 013 /// /// 03
144500 3038N 08742W 4152 07342 0421 -140 -207 129013 013 /// /// 03
144530 3039N 08740W 4117 07407 0427 -145 -213 135012 013 /// /// 03
144600 3039N 08738W 4097 07445 0430 -150 -218 138012 013 /// /// 03
144630 3040N 08736W 4095 07445 0430 -151 -218 137013 013 /// /// 03
144700 3041N 08733W 4097 07443 0429 -150 -218 135013 014 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Should be short and weak, but is still a threat to the Outer Banks.
INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 32.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 33.6N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 34.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 39.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
INIT 28/1500Z 31.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 32.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 33.6N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 34.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 39.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Intertesting clarification about if this was Fiona remnants.
Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone.
few days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are
not directly responsible for the genesis of this depression. The
Fiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing
vorticity, with the current depression developing out of the
combined system. As a result, this is considered to be a new
tropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical
cyclone.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Should become Hermine and if 99L ever gets it's act together that very well could be Ian the infamous "I" storm.
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
These mid-Atlantic lows are always hard to forecast. Joaquin came from one of these type of storms. This one shouldn't be as powerful but something to keep an eye out for.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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deltadog03
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I think this has a shot to make it to the coast. The ULL should "drag" it back that way.
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Hurricaneman
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Dave C
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Center just exposed on latest sat on east edge of convection
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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M a r k
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