ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Hammy]

If this forms I think the best analog is Earl in 2010.



If we get a strong system I don't see it making it to the US--there's always a west-bias to the models that far out.

[RL3AO]

A west bias?

I've often found these CV systems to have an east bias. Models often want to recurve them and constantly shift the track left.

[TheStormExpert]

Invest 92L needs to put the brakes on and slow down a good bit if it wants to amount to much, we've seen this same situation with numerous waves and even tropical cyclones over the past several seasons where they were moving too fast to close off and keep enough vorticity with them.

[hurricaneCW]

Exactly, although most of them do recurve, every once in a blue moon you do get one that doesn't. So we definitely need to watch it. Of course at this point it's way too early to say that this is going to recurve for sure or not, especially since one model showed it hitting Georgia. There will be of course tons of model changes over the next several days.[/quote]

LR pattern supports a long tracker with a stout Atlantic ridge stretching all the towards the east coast. This could be the storm of 2016, I feel a Hugo to Isabel vibe based on the upcoming pattern.

[cycloneye]

Floater is up.Looks healthy just emerging West Africa.

[RL3AO]

This may end up not doing much, but I feel between the pattern and the wave that this has the potential to be one we talk about for a while. Hopefully, it doesn't come to fruition.

[gatorcane]

It's quite possible the long-term fate of 92l might depend on how much TD #9 can deepen and bust the west Atlantic ridge. A weaker TD and the Bermuda Hiigh could be much stronger. A stronger TD like the EC shows could open up a weakness before this system can get to the US. Of more immediate focus are the Lesser Antilles and what impact, if any, we could see from this wave.

[ConvergenceZone]

Holy Crap! That invest 92 on the Satellite looks better than TD 8 does now. lol

[sma10]

Very nice satellite presentation, indeed. But I'm wary; I've watched these waves roll off the African coast for many years and often the convection dies off very quickly. That's what I'm looking for based on the models reluctance to instantly develop this.

It might take a couple/few days, but very likely to develop.

[MetroMike]

Very nice satellite presentation, indeed. But I'm wary; I've watched these waves roll off the African coast for many years and often the convection dies off very quickly. That's what I'm looking for based on the models reluctance to instantly develop this.

It might take a couple/few days, but very likely to develop.

We are on a "poof watch" right now.

[toad strangler]

So this one might track like an another monster of the past. Hugo.

Certainly an analog to consider IRT track as compared with current modeling. Although, Hugo became a major well E of the Leeward Islands. 92L is modeled to struggle along like so many of recent year Atlantic Basin waves ..

[RL3AO]

I'm not worried about the convection poofing. I was hoping to have an ascat pass catch it but they just went by and missed it. Hopefully in 12 hours. I really want to see the structure of the wave.

[chaser1]

Tell ya what I wanna see. Be it a long Caribbean tracker like Hurricane Allen, or an instant recurve, or possibly nothing more than one big squall line that loses all vorticity following a day spent over water... I just WANT my MTV back (wait, wrong era) umm, meant to say - I want my reliable models back!! I want to actually see some "run to run" consistency. I want to live in a world again where the EURO forecasting a major storm was a dead lock to occur. Sure, maybe it might prove slightly stronger or weaker - but not this yo-yo inability to properly gauge large scale synoptic conditions in the 120 hr or less time frame. Certainly not some forecast of imminent development & forecast to be a major 'cane..., only to be followed by its own next run only showing a weak struggling low, then back to a stronger storm on the following run after that.

That all aside, i think 92L WILL form east of 45W and become Ian. Why?? Who knows! Perhaps some wishful reassurance that all is once again right with the world (well, at least the Atlantic anyhow). But this much I know;. If T.D. 8 "poofs", and T.D. 9 continues gasping for gentle air, so help me if 92L tracks west across the Atlantic without ever getting named - I'm cashing this hurricane season in and from here out... am officially on Fall Cold Front Watch!

[PTrackerLA]

Tell ya what I wanna see. Be it a long Caribbean tracker like Hurricane Allen, or an instant recurve, or possibly nothing more than one big squall line that loses all vorticity following a day spent over water... I just WANT my MTV back (wait, wrong era) umm, meant to say - I want my reliable models back!! I want to actually see some "run to run" consistency. I want to live in a world again where the EURO forecasting a major storm was a dead lock to occur. Sure, maybe it might prove slightly stronger or weaker - but not this yo-yo inability to properly gauge large scale synoptic conditions in the 120 hr or less time frame. Certainly not some forecast of imminent development & forecast to be a major 'cane..., only to be followed by its own next run only showing a weak struggling low, then back to a stronger storm on the following run after that.

That all aside, i think 92L WILL form east of 45W and become Ian. Why?? Who knows! Perhaps some wishful reassurance that all is once again right with the world (well, at least the Atlantic anyhow). But this much I know;. If T.D. 8 "poofs", and T.D. 9 continues gasping for gentle air, so help me if 92L tracks west across the Atlantic without ever getting named - I'm cashing this hurricane season in and from here out... am officially on Fall Cold Front Watch!

A little OT but I was thinking today that either the past several years have just been so unfavorable that modeling doesn't handle it well or flat out the models have gotten worse. I remember back to 2008 a storm like Gustav pretty much did not deviate from the modeled path 7 days out. Ike was shown plowing through the Gulf by the Euro nearly 10 days out. In 2012, the Euro picked up on an extreme event in Northeast 10 days out (Sandy.) 2016? I feel like I've lost all faith in the models and we're years and years behind where we used to be. Or, maybe it's due to overall negative conditions in the Atlantic?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Just giving my opinion on this system. Just like all systems in recent years it will either stay weak if it threatens the US or go out to sea. Not backed by science more of just trends. I will leave it at that but will still keep an eye on it just in case. Lot of model watching in the days to come.

[Kingarabian]

Can't wait to track this.

[terrapintransit]

Wayyyy to early for any predictions on this one yet. It could go anywhere. Do I sound professional yet?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Since the models have been so bad this year, I don't mind throwing out my own model. It's known as the "gitchy feeling". It has been able to successfully predict 60% of the storms effecting our area since Diana in 84. Basically, if a storm is coming towards the eastern seaboard, I get the gitchy feeling. Everything about that storm will make me anxious to the extreme. I have been watching this storm for the last 4 days, and the gitchy is strong. I figure that is as good as any of the other models this season.

[Hurricaneman]

We probably won't know the steering around the islands until friday\saturday and even intensity is up in the air

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[jlauderdal]

Wayyyy to early for any predictions on this one yet. It could go anywhere. Do I sound professional yet?

based on recent model performance you sound rational...however, this one likely wont be the hot mess 9 is so the models should have a better shot..lets see